This hand was submitted to me as a Mailbag question, but after wrestling with it for a while I couldn’t come up with a great answer, so I’m going to crowdsource it. Here’s all the info I have, as provided by the Hero:
Event 1 of a WPT series at Parx Casino. $200+30 entry with un-limited re-entry thru level 6. 20,000 starting stacks with 30min blinds. Level 9 (re-entry period over) 260 players remain from 535 total entrys for average chip stack of 41,000. Blinds are 600/1200/100.
Hero UTG + 1 60k. Table image is pretty tight-good and have steadily accumulated chips mostly through small-medium pots with one fairly large 3-way pot early in tournament with that went to showdown. Have showed down 3 times total on the day, losing with KK to 7-4 that rivered two pair and winning the other two with a good hand (TPTK) and top set. Haven’t gotten out of line, no pre-flop 3 bets to this point.
Hijack seat: 22k young loose-passive player that i have played with in the past. Routinely cold calls raises with less than premium holdings and gets himself into trouble playing less than premium broadway type hands.
Button: 28k Older 50ish, “know-it-all” type that likes to offer his analysis of every hand at its conclusion. guy who says things like ‘you have to fold xx there” or ‘the odds etc etc “. threw around a lot of poker terms but didn’t really use them correctly.
BB: 49k young player who was very tight thusfar. Didn’t enter tournament until level 5 and had only played 3-4 hands across 2 hours of play. Seemed like he made some disciplined folds when facing pressure and in the few hands he did play, made one squeeze play to isolate a weak opponent to get a heads-up all in situation that he won with JJ > AQ
Here’s the action:
utg: fold
hero: KK raise to 3200 (standard raise for table had been 2800)
folds to HJ
HJ: calls 3200
CO folds
BTN: re-raises to 6500.
SB: folds
BB: re-raise to 14000
What’s your play and why? Post your thoughts and analysis here, and I’ll be back to offer my own thoughts on Friday.
One word of warning: If you’re going to comment, please dig deeper than, “I’m not good enough to fold KK. If he has AA oh well.” I wouldn’t be posting this hand if it were that simple. Thinking through situations that you previously treated as automatic and looking for exceptions to rules is one of the best ways to get better. Whether you want to fold, call, or raise, put these players on ranges, explain your assumptions, and demonstrate why your preferred line is the best way to go against those ranges.
I think the first thing to think about is whether or not the BB thinks the BTN is capable of squeezing. If he’s a “know-it-all” then maybe the BB picked up on that as Hero did, and using his tight image, thinks he can get away with a steal knowing that the BTN likely doesn’t have much. Also, the BTN probably noticed that the HJ is pretty loose-passive and thinks this is a good spot and I’m sure the BB picked up on that fact as well. I think based on that, folding is out of the question. Hero can call and then re-evaluate on the flop, since I don’t think the BTN is calling half his stack in that spot. Also, calling allows QQ to get into more trouble, since that’s a possibility for the BB. Ultimately though, I’d prefer to shove here and take down the pot right now. I don’t think we’re going to get called by anything worse (BB is disciplined, so he can fold QQ to a shove for his whole stack) and this is a sizable pot before we stick any more money into it.
Sorry that was a bit long-winded! Basically, I think this is a spot where the BB is giving the BTN zero credit for a hand and is using his tight image to take down the pot. We’re very-likely ahead, so shove and take it down. If AA is out there, then that’s too bad for us, but the pre-flop action thus far doesn’t scream AA.
I think that often times, older guys like our BTN talk a lot of poker knowledge without, as you pointed out, really applying that knowledge correctly. I wouldn’t completely discount the fact that he is capable of noticing a good spot to squeeze but I wouldn’t think that he is doing it with a weak holding and certainly don’t think we should give him that much credit here. From what you told us, BB is not only tight but also very capable of noticing what I just described above and therefore I don’t think he is 4betting light here. Perhaps he is using his table image well and noticed a good spot but again, I don’t see anything in your description which leads me to believe that he is getting out of line here. If we think he is light, obviously this is a no brainer, however, if he is doing this with the very top of his range, say JJ+/AKs/AKo, we are still a favorite (about 60/40, thank you poker stove). I think we should shove here.
I would be curious to know if ‘know-it-all’ ever mentioned the word ‘squeeze’ specifically. Even just saying that would indicate that he knows the concept, if not necessarily what makes a good squeeze. You might start doing mental gymnastics trying to decide if BB ever heard BTN say it either.
Even an obnoxious know-it-all has some level of poker knowledge, and is likely to understand that HJ is a LP and can squeeze here as a bluff v you but for value v HJ.
I think the real crux of the hand is deciding what we think BB thinks of BTN, and I don’t think it’s a judgement we can make just by reading this. He seems good enough to be able to be bluffing here some % of the time (likely with blockers) and if he thinks BTN is FOS, perhaps wider for value too with LP HJ in between(JJ+/AK).
As I think about it, I’m leaning towards flatting. As a preflop spot, you open HJ up to overcalling (again) and giving BTN a chance to jam a little wider with all the dead money in the pot. If you see a flop 4way, BB is going to have to play super straightforward, and we can get value from HJ when he flops a pair he can’t fold. If that happens, I would keep a close eye on BTN as the board comes down to see if he reacts at all, as BB is going to give away his hand as he’s first to act, and HJ isn’t likely to smash the board with his loose calls.
Hello Nimh, I submitted this question to andrew. in regards to your inquiry, “know it all” never specifically mentioned “squeeze” from what I recall.
related to your “lean towards flatting”, if it does induce the BTN to 5bet shove (regardless of whether HJ overcalls again or not) how would you react to BB if he:
A.) 6bet re-shoves or B.) flats?
obviously I am very interested to see what the crew has to say regarding this spot and want to thank andrew for posting it here for all to analyze and comment on.
-TvB
Grunch:
The button, in my opinion, has a range of TT+, AK and maybe AQ? He has made it small, which means he may be looking to build a pot. There are 2 ppl in the hand already, and he seems to WANT to get called. This leads me to believe he has a super-premium hand. Also, I’m an age-ist and honestly don’t expect a 50-something to do this with anything besides KK+. I accept that it’s possible he’s doing this with like AQ and wants guys to be forced to call with AJ etc, but I think he might prefer a call with AQ.
The BB has been tight to this point. He KNOWS that the button likes his hand. If the button WAS bluffing, he’d have to raise more. It seems that there are two possibilities for the BB’s 4-bet:
1) He’s making a small 4-bet with a hand like JJ-QQ so that he can thin out the first two players and get away from it if reraised.
2) He’s making a small 4-bet with AA looking to make the odds irresistible to the button.
Based on these (possible false) assumptions, I would advocate a fold. If the BB has AA, we’re fucked and would rather not raise and are not getting odds to call. If he has JJ-QQ, he will fold to a raise, so that’s no good, but if we CC we have no idea where we’re at, plus we could get reshoved by the button.
Meanwhile, even if the BB has JJ-QQ and we call, we still have to worry about the button. If we CC the 4-bet, the button will either shove and honestly KK is not looking great at this point, or the button will call, and then we’ll be in a 3-way pot without a ton of information, and it’s gonna suck. I think it’s nitty, but I’d fold.
I will now read the other replies and probably end up changing my mind.
It seems to me that this is a perfect situation to use Cardrunners-EV to simulate the various moving parts.
I don’t play tournaments, so I don’t have a great feel for how light people will get it in this deep – is QQ a 4b-call a shove for a typical tournament player 40bb deep? Because I’d work on the assumption that BB is bluffing never, and the BTN fairly rarely. So whilst we run into AA fairly often it might still be able to get it in profitably if people are stacking off light enough. From the reads given, I feel as though the BTN is liable to shrug and make a bad ‘standard’ call, but that BB might be able to make a really tight fold preflop.
I wouldn’t rule out folding, but if we play on my sense is that we do better to raise than call, because both are strong and we look like AK more by raising, I think.
Call to set mine. 😀
range of BTN: AQ, AJ, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK
range of BB : JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AKs
Since hero is tight, it is likely that BTN would perceive range of hero at ATs++ to pocket pairs, while BB’s 4bet seemingly feels that hero’s range is not too threatening to his own.
What seems to be going on here is that BTN is representing a strong AK-ish kind of hand, a kind that dominates hero, thus the small 3bet. Aside from AKs, AQs kind of hand that wants to be called so he has a chance to double his stack or fold if he face some heat, he could also have hands like QQ, KK, AA, with the other possible combination rated less possible in my evaluation.
Taking stack size into consideration, 14k raise from BB here is exactly half the size of BTN’s. Focusing on this size of raise, it seems that BB’s raise could be for 2 reason: push out Hero and induce a shove from BTN, or push out Hero and build a pot for BB to shove on flop/turn.
Thus, Hero has the following options:
1. Call and hopes that BTN shove, in which Hero has a chance to re-evaluate his hand if BB comes over the top/flat calls.
2. Fold. Not recommended according to assigned range.
3. Raise to about 29k.
One of the bugaboos here is both Hijack and Button have put over 10% of their stacks in preflop already. They really should not be continuing no matter what you do unless they have AA/KK/QQ/AK or feel like getting frisky with another holding.
If you flat the BB’s 4-bet, what range are the Hijack/Button really continuing with? AA and maybe KK? They’re too shallow to do anything else otherwise. I can see where there’s an argument for cold-calling the 14K, if you think it’ll induce a shove from the short stacks and isolate you from the BB, who can really hurt you. But I just don’t see them doing that – plus, that kind of allows the BB to never put another chip in postflop unless he improves, and that’s not good for you – If BB is making a play with something worse than KK, will he give you more chips if he doesn’t hit one of his 2-3 outs on the flop? Maybe that’s better from the smallball point of view – don’t play a big pot preflop unless you have to…
BB sees this as a great spot to 4-ball and take it down, b/c he really just has to get past you in EP – it’s not likely that the Hijack will continue at all, and if the Button wants to go, well, he’s priced in away getting 3-1 and just has to get there/hold up, right?
I would probably click it back and make it 19.5/20K to go – if the Hijack or Button wants to continue, they’ll likely shove – and that might drive the BB out – not likely, but it’s possible. It just seems like a really odd-sized four-bet with AA/AK.
To sum up, if Hijack/Button have AA, that’s poker – I will go HU and take my chances. If the BB has it – well, that’s a little more touchy given stack sizes. I don’t want to be trivial and say, I’m not good enough to fold KK… but, it this spot, I’ve got to believe that there’s an AA combo out there and the BB has it. That’s too much for me to buy at this point – too narrow a range to put the BB on when he makes this play.
Now, if I make it 20K to go, all fold, and the BB jams 49K…. well, then you’re stuck with 80k in the middle and only having to call off 30K more…
The more I think about it, the more this spot sucks b/c there’s not an ideal counter to this play from the BB given the stack sizes and description of the table. Soulread, obv.
UTG’s call seems bad b/c it is more than 10% of his stack, but based on the given information, it seems typical. Can he find a fold? Do I want him in because he might have a mediocre hand?
BTN’s raise size suggests he is commiting his entire stack, or is also a poor player. With the given information, we have to assume he could fold or shove.
So I think we can expect at least one caller before it gets back to the BB.
BB’s squeeze seems straight forward given his image. He likely has a premium hand, say JJ+, maybe AK. We do well against his betting range, but his calling range might be skewed toward AA. Maybe he folds JJs or AK if we shove since we are the only one who can eliminate him from the tourney.
To me this hinges on whether we can isolate and if we should. I don’t have the experience to know the answer. In general, I think we have less equity against two players than against one. But if the BB and BTN’s ranges overlap somewhat, doesn’t that raise our equity in this case?
Options:
1. Fold. Hard to do because it violates your instincts. You would have to be certain of a read that the BB has AA. But you could also fold, lose very little, and continue on with an above average stack.
2. Call. Seems the worst option to me. BTN has over 20% of his stack in. BB has 25% committed. The stacks are going in, so you might as well shove if you play. But this gets to my question above. If we want multiple callers, we can flat, but I am not sure we want everyone in the pot.
3. Raise all in. Seems almost standard with Hero’s hand, stack size, and reads. Also, I am inexperienced, so I don’t understand the difference between shoving and raising to say $28k-$30k in this situation.
Do you want to play for over 80% of your stack, against 2, maybe 3 others, at this point, when you could fold and keep your good standing in the tournament?
Because I am not quick thinking in the moment, I would shove, based on my cards and my chip lead. Having rationally thought through the hand without the stress of living through it, I think I would fold for the sole purpose of living to find a better spot. We do not need to take this spot at this point in the tournament.
We need to know more about btn- has he 3bet before or otherwise shown much aggression, particularly in position? Any reason for him to be tilted etc.
Btn was there for 3-4 levels and had raised a handful of times and followed them up with c-bets but no preflop 3bets that I remember. The raises had come from across all preflop positions. In other words I didn’t get the feeling he was solely position raising but rather raising with standard type open raising hands. No reason for him to be tilted, hadn’t taken a bad beat or lost a big pot or anything like that.
Thanks for the additional info.
Hero should fold because:
1. The probability that BB is doing this intending for BU (as well as everyone else) to fold is negligible given descriptions of players and the fact that BU has already committed a quarter of his stack.
2. That means that in the best case scenario for hero, BB has decided to iso-raise with a AQ+ JJ+ sort of range.
But we have to discount this scenario pretty heavily because BB will, I think, often read BU as being always super-strong in this situation(i.e. KK+, maybe QQ+) because of his weird small pre-flop 3bet, and so will himself only be 4-betting super strong (KK+).
And in any case, some of the times that BB’s range is wider (i.e. he isn’t reading BU as super strong), BU is in fact super-strong (i.e. KK+), and if it is +EV to stay in the hand then I suspect it’s not by much.
It boils down to two things:
1) How wide we see their ranges
2) What are they going to call a shove with given their range
We need their ranges to be wide enough so that if they are only ever calling with AA, we will get enough fold equity to win the 27k right away. I think that break even point here is {JJ+ AKs}. I think this is plausible.
Or if we think we are getting called with AKs or QQ by either of them if we shove, then this is a profitable shove, since we are significantly ahead of any range greater than AA.
This is why this is a situation where we would shove and say “If he has AA, then so be it…” because unless there is absolute certainty on exact ranges and calling tendencies, the middle pot has grown so big that anything wider than them having AA makes it profitable to shove.
Someone mentioned about the “wait for a better spot” argument. I’m looking forward to know if Andrew thinks this should sway your decision in any way.
– By minraising BTN is either trying to represent a strong holding or is genuinely representing one. It depends on how he seems self-aware of how a min raise is perceived at the table.
– Since he seems to be not self-aware, I consider that he’s got a strong holding. Which strong holding can be enough for him ?
– Basically AA-KK-QQ, AKs.
BB is the one I’m scared of. He raises on 3 people :
– Hero who is pretty tight and unless Hero raised a lot from early position, seems strong.
– HJ who should not be added to the problem since he is so weak
– BTN who is representing a very strong holding by minraising on 2 people already.
Basically, I’ve got two people who are representing the top of their ranges meanwhile I’m having the second best hand in the game.
I am now more concerned about finding who got AA and if I can profit from one of them.
If it’s BTN, I don’t feel that I can get more money from BB. You told that he did some disciplined fold. If I flat, I show strength. If I raise, I show strength. My only way to make more money is to setmine with KK. What a joke since it’s costing me at least 11K with only a small chance of making more money. BTN would go all-in quite often if he’s got AA and there is a huge possibility of AK in front of me cutting my odds of getting a set on the flop.
If it’s BB, he would not have such a hard time to guess I’ve got KK if I flat, same goes with a raise. There is a huge chance again that if a K hits on the flop he would just fold since he is disciplined enough. And what happens if the flop is AKx ?
I’m not confident playing this spot, thus, I feel like a total nit but I’m open folding. I will keep a huge stack and will profit from more hands after and would have a great chance to narrow BB’s range without it costing me that much money (3K).
Really tough spot, but I do think it is a fold unfortunately even if we are ahead. We have an above average chip stack and only 3200 invested. Yes, the potential is great, but we might not even get to see a Flop after a minimum 300% more investment or more unless we committ to this … and then we shove and hope for no AA our there. Based on descriptions, it would seem that we could accumulate chips from these players without the risk of a multi-way bingo pot. If we just call …
HJ could feel priced in and play some bingo here. If he thinks all the others are sharing cards it would mean that his cards are avialable for the board … much less that he actually has a hand here!! His call/shove prices others into the pot as well I think.
Button probably has 99+ or AXs. Not really thinking he would try to entice others into the pot with min raise here holding AA, KK or even QQ without tons of respect for UTG’s ability to fold here. Although the button does offer some security of position which may have led him to believe that the min raise was okay. I think he wants (needs) to see the Flop.
BB may have picked up on the Button’s ‘weakness’ and could be making a move here, but based on the description I don’t see this coming from the BB, putting him OOP if we do see a Flop here, without the tightest range yet … AA, KK, AKs. Especially with the initial raiser yet to act (a second time) and a wild card behind (who would be very priced into almost anything here now).
You are the chip leader here, let the others scrap it out and get these chips heads-up in a different hand. Might have a different outlook if the re-buy period was still available … certainly don’t get involved at final table or at the bubble. If all the stacks were below average, then that might sway me a little as well … not sure.
I confess, I read everthing above first. That said, not sure if I would do all this at the table, but I think it is best to put them on two ranges each and try to blend those ranges.
BTN:
If squeezing: suited connectors down to 87, AJ+ (maybe down to A7+), 1010+ (maybe down to 77+)
If not aware of squeezing, playing straightforward: AQ, 10 10+
BB:
If he thinks BTN can squeeze and wants to “re-squeeze”: suited connectors down to 87, AJ+, 1010+
If he thinks BTN is not aware of squeezing, then BB will be playing straightforward: KK, AA (note, there is only one combo of KK but six of AA, since hero holds KK)
As said by others, HJ’s range doesn’t matter, but HJ matters as dead money. The percent likelihood applied to each of the ranges is very read dependent, but as described, I put BTN as most likely aware of squeezing and BB as mostly likely aware of that, so maybe 30% to each squeeze range and 70% to each “playing straightforward” range. That gives me enough of an edge to at least call. Next question is whether raising is better. Then if so, is shoving the best versus a raise to 28K.
The problem is if BB is actually playing straightforward, then we have one combo (KK) we chop with and six (AA) that dominate us. He has been playing very tight, but maybe he thinks its time to make a move?
Overall, I call and hope to show it down, review later action. Any ace shuts me down. If no aces, and not a horrible board (e.g., 10JQs)I will call anything except possibly from BB, who is the only one likely to have AA.
I take it back – the part about calling. I don’t want to play a 4 way pot with KK, so I raise. Also, hero will be in terrible position post flop (just after the last raiser if we call and no one raises behind us.) Amount of raise? Probably should just ship it, because a any other raise doesn’t leave us enough back to play poker post flop with BB. We also want to keep fold equity on our side, so ship instead of making a smaller raise.
Live in the moment I think I would probably just ship.
I actually think all three Villains could show up with AA here.
Though most likely they all have like 10+,KQs,AQ range.
Hero’s slightly large original raise looks like 10’s,JJ’s, AQ, AK…
Which might motivate BB to play AK,QQ,JJ in a way designed to get Hero to fold and play vs smaller stacks.
Honestly though it really spooks me that BB raised 7500 to 14000 total that is just the right size for HJ (V1) to shove 22000(8000more) and thereby re-open the betting. Even if button re-shoves over HJ shove the BB can still re-re-shove.
Added to that I doubt BB calls without AA very often if Hero ships it.
So ya I think it is possible to find a fold.
For what it is worth, I think the small button raise from a know at all type can be a hand like AQ,kqs,10s,JJs…a 2 for 1 hand. Villain hopes people fold pre to his raise, and if they don’t he knows he can still flop the best hand. Plus he bets small so he can get away if 2 or 3 people shove before he acts again. I would say the button has AA maybe 40% of the time. I would actually be quite surprised if button shows up with exactly AK here.
First one question, will the rais to 3200 look to the rest of the table like a stronger hand than normal. I’m going to go on the assumption that it isn’t, since the raise is still between 2x and 3x the big blind like the standard raise.
First, the ranges: HJ range is really wide, any pair, broadway, suited connector (could include some really strong hands that would normally raise if he is aware of his image to hero). BTN’s raise is interesting as it isn’t that large. It almost seems like it is designed to get both opponents to call. If both opponents do call, then the pot will be @ 22K and he has 21.5K behind, so it looks like he wants them to call and then ship any flop. To me, that should be a strong hand, QQ+, since one of the two opponents is going to get very good odds to call if they hit anything on the flop. If he was bluffing or wanted to isolate against one opponent (say with AK or AQ), then he would raise bigger.
If BB reasons the same way I am, then his raise can only be KK+. Would he think that way? He’s described as tight and showed down a strong hand when he squeezed, so there isn’t any reason to think he is on a bluff, so I would think he would be raising only with QQ+ even if he didn’t. So I’d say it’s well over 50% that one of them has AA.
You don’t have the implied odds vs either opponent’s effective stack to call and hope to hit (plus someone can re-raise), so fold.
The other issue is tournament dynamics. Hero is the table chip leader (at least before this hand is over) and is still relatively deep (M @ 25).
Why risk alot of chips in a marginal spot, when you have been playing well so far.
Firstly I hate calling here, so it is a shove or fold spot.
Considering the Button, I would say he a fairly straight forward player that likes show off how good he is but his raising range here consists of AA, KK, QQ, AK, (AQs, AJs, JJ, TT, 99 – but these may flat here too) and its not impossible he is squeezing.
Considering the BB, He seems to be a strong player who can make good folds or of a nit, I think it is hard for us to give him a bluff here because it would be very out of character for him if he is a nit and if he is a strong player he should see your large early position raise as a big hand rather than a bluff, making the BTN less likely to have a bluff meaning that he needs to be going a bit crazy to show up with a bluff
So what does he have, AA, KK, QQ, AK, (maybe JJ) are all possibilities – but I think he would bet bigger with AK to maximize fold equity. If he is good/nitty enough to fold QQ/AK to you shove then we should fold because its so difficult for him to call with worse than AA/KK
If we shove we are commiting 48K to win 30K if they both fold, +22K if Button calls, +34 if BB calls. The following are the four scenarios that happen if we ship it, if they suck we should fold
1. Btn Fold, BB fold
2. Btn Fold, BB Call
3. Btn Call, BB Call
4. Btn Call, BB fold
1. Obviously a good result – this happens when:
– Btn has AQ, 99-JJ, AK will fold some and call some, QQ will fold rarely and call often.
– BB has AK some, QQ rarely since he could think you have AKs
2. This happens when:
– Btn has AQ, 99-JJ, AK will fold some and call some, QQ will fold rarely and call often, bluffs too
– BB has AA, KK, QQ some, AK some and bluffs
3. This happens when
-Btn has AA, KK, QQ will call most of the time, AKs some of the time
-BB has AA, KK.
4. This happens when
-Btn has AA, KK, QQ alot of the time, AKs some of the time
-BB has JJ, AK and bluffs
Given their ranges 2&3 are the most likley scenarios and we are doing pretty awfully in these spots so I think it is a fold.
I actually started out thinking that both would stack off with less than 50bb much lighter than kk but breaking it down I think we just are unlucky one of them doesn’t crush us.
I also ignored HJ because he is so wide here we don’t really care if he crushes us but is v.likely folding.
I’m never folding…let’s get that one option out of the way. Here’s why:
I think the Button is always doing this for value, but that we are still ahead of his getting it in range. I think his 3-bet range is AK, AA, KK, QQ, sometimes JJ, and possibly 1010. The JJ and 1010 depend alot on the player and we don’t have enough info to narrow it. For arguments sake, lets exclude all 1010 possibilities and include all JJ. As for the BB, I don’t think we can narrow his range much based on the info you gave. “Seemed like he made some disciplined folds when facing pressure” is pretty vague and we don’t know what discipled folds actually means to him. He could hate to let go of any pair, and he could have been quite card dead so far. That said, since he is young, I give him about the same range as the button.
As for whether to call or raise, I like calling because it disguises your hand and will allow you to extract from worse. If you jam or raise, I don’t think you get called from JJ or 1010. You might get called from AK and QQ from either of them, and will definitely get called by KK or AA. Against those calling ranges, I think calling and letting them bluff or value bet worse is the best way to maximize your value. You will go broke to AA most of the time anyway. Also, if you see a flop that helps their ranges more (something like A Q x), you can fold when the opportunity presents itself.
The vast majority of 50+ men that like to play this price point are rocks. They know the concepts of squeezing and light 3Bs, but don’t usually work them into their games.
In short, they always have it when they 3B, and by it I mean AA, KK, AK and sometimes QQ.
They flat call almost always with JJ or less, and often with AK as well. They simply don’t like to build pots until they are sure they have a hand.
Assuming the kid in the BB is aware of this tendency, then he almost always has a premium hand also. I dont think he 4Bs even with AK, as the opener can easily have some of his outs. I expect to see AA or KK almost every time from BB, however, his age suggests that he can have a wider range and possibly is brave enought to 4B light. I have seen old guys in the button’s spot fold KK face up (because they are such rocks that they would only 4B with AA, so they assume BB “has to have it”).
With all of that said, I don’t really know what I would do with KK in that spot. Poker books almost all say to get the money in pre flop with KK in such spots unless you know the raiser would only make the play with AA. I remember Johnny Chan calling off a stack to a 4B near the chip lead deep in the WSOP ME a couple of years ago, and of course the amaueur showed him AA.
So this is a read based answer, but I flat call if I think he can only have AA, KK and AK to see if the A flops. If I think his 4B range contains anything else, I just stick it in and hope to suck out if he has AA. If he can only have AA or KK, then I can fold (and have). Of course the last time I did so, the tight old lady that 4B me had the other KK, but the time before that the old guy showed me his AA :-).
If this were a larger buy in tournament or online, none of this analysis applies as I expect to see much wider ranges and a little more poker being played. As I like to say, old guys play cards and the kids play poker. The price point and description of the the button lead me to my conclusions.
I would flat call this re-raise. You have already seen BB use a squeeze play to isolate a weaker hand (JJ > AQ). He is trying to isolate who he thinks is a weaker player in the BTN. Any raise at this point would entice either an All-in which would probably need to be called. The call would probably put the BTN in a position to fold his hand unless it is absolute premium. From the way these players are described, I would place the range of hands that the BB has at AA, QQ, JJ, AKs. By flat calling, and expecting the BTN to fold, you have now gained position for the rest of the hand. Having KK in position on flop and following streets with a larger stack, I like my spot there. Your flat call can only give off strength since he knows he is giving off tight image.