I’m just going to give the turn action and skip straight to the river. It’s not entirely unworthy of debate, but I do think it’s almost always correct to bet the turn.
Villain (UTG+1, 45K stack) is probably mid-30s, part native Hawaiian and part mountain – he’s a big guy, is what I’m saying. I don’t think he’s a professional, but he did ask me earlier in the day if my last name was Brokos and told me that he enjoyed my articles.
It’s level 3 of the WSOP Main Event. Blinds are 150/300 without an ante. Villain open limps. That’s not unheard of for our table – maybe 5% of pots were open limped – nor for this Villain, though he’s generally pretty tight aggressive and raises more often than he limps. UTG+2 limps, VMP2 limps, the button limps, and the SB completes.
Hero (60K stack) has Ac Kd in the BB and raises to 1800. Villain calls quickly, UTG+2 folds, MP2 thinks for a bit and then calls, and the others fold.
We’re three to the flop with 6300 in the pot. Flop comes Ad Jd 8d, giving Hero top pair with top kicker and the nut flush draw. Hero checks, and others check behind.
Turn is the Qd. Hero bets 4000, Villain reaches for his chips when the action is on him, looks a little displeased, and then tosses his 4000 in. MP2 folds.
River is the Qc. There’s 14,300 in the pot. What’s your play and why? Remember that if you’re betting you need a plan for a raise, and if you’re checking you need a plan for a bet.
Post thoughts and comments here, and I’ll be back with results on Friday.
In all likelihood, the only hand that beats us is AQ, or perhaps QJ, that would have played this way. I would expect most sets to have bet the flop, and unless he’s playing something wonky like Q8, I would expect to be mostly ahead here, given the action, as he’ll probably have a few weaker flushes TdX, 9dX, etc. that could check flop, call turn.
If that’s the case, I think b/f river is pretty standard – I’m torn between making it like 5800 to 6600 – as we’d expect to be called by those weaker flushes and get raised only by boats.
However, if we’re going to assume his turn “I am displeased” look as a ‘true read’ then I actually think we might be behind more often, because he shouldn’t be particularly displeased with 2nd/3rd NF in this spot OTT. Can we just soul-read c/f or is that that really ridiculous?
Well I’d say there’s no point in checking here just to call any bet as there’s too high a chance of a smaller flush checking it down when he may have called a value bet. Also the lack of aggression shown thoughout means a rivered full house is unlikely. I think he probably has QoTd or KoTd. Flopped double gutshot plus fd with the former and fd & gutshot for the latter make sense for continuing in the hand this way. The displeasure on the turn may be that although it improved his hand he’d rather it made his gutshot so he can get more value from his hand.
I think getting raised if we bet is unlikely unless he flopped a tiny flush that he’s turning unto a bluff, so I think we need to call any raise and if he did slowplay a set we have to pay him off since we made the draw we wanted.
I think betting about 9000 here is appropriate. It gives him 2.5-1 on a call which he’d probably take but if he shoves all in we’d be geting about 2-1 on a call which I would take.
His displeased call on the turn indicates smaller flush, set, or two pair. Go for thin value vs. flush and bet 4K. He seems straight forward so fold to a raise. I don’t think he’s capable of turning a small flush into a bluff. Added benefit of 4K bet sizing is it’s smaller than a bet I’d call if I check and he value bets a full house (say up to 7K).
If we check we have to check-fold.
Can we value bet? I don’t know! I’ll have to think about it more…
If we check then I can’t imagine any hand that he bets that we beat. he surely checks back any smaller flushes, straights, trips or pairs. It also seems highly unlikely that he’s got to this point with a hand he feels he needs to bluff with. Therefore, if we check then I’d say we have to fold to any reasonably-sized bet. So check/calling is out the question.
That leaves check/fold, bet/call or bet/fold. If we bet in the region of 8000ish, he’s surely calling with medium flushes, and quite possibly bluff-catching with a pair of aces or trips (especially once you check the flop, plenty of villains will eliminate the nut flush from your range). This seems to comprise a decent chunk of his range. In short, there are plenty of worse hands that could call a bet, so checking seems clearly wrong and betting seems clearly right.
Once we bet, I think we have to fold to a raise for the reasons stated in the first paragraph.
Betting small to induce a bluff seems wrong because I don’t think hands that need to bluff form any part of villains range here, so all that happens when we bet small is that we get less value on the many occasions that we’re ahead (villain never raises worse for value).
Betting too close to the size of the pot seems significantly less likely to be called by the hands we want to call us – but I think around 8000-9000 is about right.
Choices seem to me to be between bet/fold and check/call. I must confess I’m not really confident either way. Check call doesn’t seem great as most hands we are ahead of that he has in his turn range will check behind us, most hands that beat us will bet, and I don’t see him having much of a bluff range. So we are mostly going to be putting money in the pot behind – but I am not going to trust that read enough to just fold the nut flush. At least with betting we will stand to get called by lesser flushes or suspicious aces. I really don’t see getting bluff raised here in general or in particular after his demeanor on the turn. So I’ll bet out about 7500 and fold to a raise.
Choices seem to me to be between bet/fold and check/call. I must confess I’m not really confident either way. Check call doesn’t seem great as most hands we are ahead of that he has in his turn range will check behind us, most hands that beat us will bet, and I don’t see him having much of a bluff range. So we are mostly going to be putting money in the pot behind – but I am not going to trust that read enough to just fold the nut flush. At least with betting we will stand to get called by lesser flushes or aces. I really don’t see getting bluff raised here in general or in particular after his demeanor on the turn. So I’ll bet out about 7500 and fold to a raise.
I bet 4k into the 16k pot. Give Hero a good price on stopping a bluff if we check, and a small percentage of time get value from smaller diamond/str8/3 queens. Villain knows you, so he probably knows you sometimes bet small to induce so I am not that worried about getting raised light if we bet small (I fold if he raises). If he didn’t know you I would just check/fold (and hate it).
Do you expect to be ahead of his calling range or are you just betting to stop a bluff? What hands do you expect him to bluff with?
Good Questions 🙂
Maybe break even versus his calling range (Sometimes V has small full-house/sometimes villain calls with like 10D, 9D, perhaps even less 3’qs or str8 just because we make it so cheap). Though I really expect V to fold or raise most of the time.
Admittedly mostly betting to stop a bluff. I think V thinks we bet KD, full-house, and 910D almost all the time. So when we check it looks super weak. So he could bluff with (AJ,910,q10,j8,a8,a10,k10) afraid to lose to a small D. He could also be either betting 9D/10D for super thin value or be bluffing a small D(maybe a flopped 7 high flush) thinking you have 9D or 10D and thinking you might fold.
I believe betting 4k could be slightly -ev.
Basically though I would rather my mistake be losing 4k then losing the pot to a bluff.
Let’s sum this up :
Mountain-man :
– Tight-agressive
– Quite good but not so good
– Knows you (you are aggressive, right ?)
– Never open-limped before
– Limps UTG (Any QQ+ would do as he would be happy to be raised)
– Calls without hesitation after a strong raise after 5 limpers (So he got raised and doesn’t even think about it ?)
– Fakes weakness by looking displeased in the turn (remember Mike Caro’s “never call poker clack ?”)
– If he wasn’t faking weakness, what else can he have to call the turn while looking displeased ? A straight (Why on earth would he be open-limping with KT ?) ?
– More likely a set, right ? Which turned to be a full house or even quads.
I mean, what else do we need to know that he’s got at least a full house 80% of the time ?
It’s smelling bad sheisse, I’m check-folding this hand instantly.
The article did not say that the villan is a good player, but it does say that he has open limped previously. All we know about the villain is that he does open limp, he’s a big guy and he’s familiar with Foucault.
Also the faking weakness tell only applies if we have already established he’s an actor in the Caro sense, which we have not. Calling quickly from what I remember is most commonly associated with being on a draw.
You are right about the open-limp, I misread because I didn’t pay attention enough (and english is my second language for what this excuse is worth :P).
It broadens his limping + calling range but not so much either since this quick call preflop seemed calculated/easy.
I was more talking about the quick calling after his open-limping and being raised preflop, not the call on the turn.
You are right about the fact we must know that he is acting before making tells assumptions, that’s why I said that if he was acting it was with a lesser hand which had a huge chance to improve and if not, then it was not looking good because of that second queen.
Even if he did open-limped before, was it UTG ? What was it with ? Did we see showdown after he limped before ?
There is a part of me that is less convinced he’s got the nuts and would like to bet 5kish for value against quite a good range since he played this pot so passively. After all, if he is genuinely displeased it can be with any lower flush or straight (since he is open-limping more).
The other part is just convinced that he slowplayed his pocket, called the turn “just in case” being genuinely displeased with his set and then gets a full house.
The board is quite scary if you’ve got less than K high flush. Can you actually get some money from him ? Can he actually bet the river thinking “he took a stab at the turn, the board must be as scary for him as it is for me, I should bet with my T high flush”.
Okay, since check/folding is the less variance path that would also make me loose some value here and since I find myself too nitty, it would be a check/call for me since actually we did not show that much strength postflop and can induce a bet from crappy hands.
CHECK/CALL IT IS ! (Unless it’s an all-in where I would puke all over the table)
Well if you tell him you’re going to puke all over the table he’ll probably just check back for you.
We bet for two reasons:
1. Get worse hands to call,
2. Get better hands to fold.
Obvioulsy, we cant get anything better to fold (FH or SF).
I think it is also difficult for worse hands to call in this spot with a four flush and pair on the board.
Most people would bet the flop with a small flush to avoid the fourth suited card from turning, and many fold when the turn puts four flush on board, so it is unlikely you get called by a worse flush (maybe something with the Td if you price it low enough).
I cant think of another hand in his range that is likely to pay you off unless they are bluff catching.
Sets could check behind on a suited flop if playing carefully, so the board pairing is not a good sign for us. AA could have tried to trap you pre flop (although most limp raise), and JJ or 88 could easily limp call pre flop to set mine so early in the ME.
Check call if you think he may bluff (unlikley), and check fold it you believe him.
If he checks behind with a worse flush or 2P, you may lose a little value, but you don’t know if he would have called any bet.
Bet folding feels awful.
bet/fold is the best play here imho
We bet for value – this line looks quite strong thus polarizing our range. Because of that a lot of medium strength hands will easily call, this includes most trips and most flushes.
The hands that raise our bet we can easily fold to – the range there is mostly boats, with maybe 0.5% bluffs.
I can’t imagine anyone calling with trips in this spot. You lose to half the deck and unless you have KQ you are chopping with the only other possible trips that aren’t a full house Q10.
To call with trips you’d have to playing as pure bluff catcher because you don’t beat any of the straight draws or even the 2d at this point.
Hello,
The question here is : does villain have a full house or more ?
What kind of hands make a full house on the river ?
A set or two pairs.
Is it possible for villain to have a set on the turn ?
You tell that villain is tight aggressive and raises more than limps.
The board on the turn is Ad Jd 8d Qd.
Can he limps utg AA, QQ, JJ or 88 preflop, then calls a raise from big blind ?
With the action limp/call preflop I can only see 88 and perhaps JJ in his hand. (6 combos).
Is it possible for villain to have two pairs on the turn ?
If he has two pairs so he has a queen. I don’t see villain with Q8, so it can be AQ (4 combos) or QJ (6 combos).
Plus, the straight flush draw with Td9d, hero is beaten by 17 combos.
Now, how many combos will call a value bet ?
I think villain can call a little bet with a flush or a straight.
Since the Ad is on the board and villain is tight I can’t see villain with a lot of flush because I can’t imagine him with a lot of offsuited hands.
He can have a straight with KT, QT, JT.
His calling range could be : TT, AT, KT, QT, JT (42 combos).
Does he have a bluff/ raising range ? Since he reads Andrew’s articles, I think he has a lot of respect for him and I don’t think he can put a raise in bluff.
So I think hero can put a little bet on the river (1/3 pot) and fold to a raise.
What a mess!! And now we are all over the map with potential actions. I think we missed alot of discussion on the Turn as well. We played mis-step army poker here the whole way … left, we should have bet the Flop … right, we should have checked the Turn (if we checked the Flop) … left, we should bet/fold the River, so lets check and call any reasonable bet … right, lets hope he had 10d10x (calling) or KK (folding) and not AA, QQ, AQ or JJ.
Can we turn our hand into a bluff, maybe but I don’t think he is folding most 5-card hands and most of those beat us. Don’t think he is really going to think that we have a better FH here … If we bet anything, then come back with the 4000 bet from the Turn and see what happens.
I agree the quick call/no raise pre-Flop is cause for concern but I think that it eliminated AA, KK and maybe QQ … not JJ or 1010 (maybe AK or AQ suited) since he had position on the raiser and wouldn’t mind a call behind since he is set/flush mining so to speak.
I just can’t get over the Flop check. TPTK is not much OOP on this board and we need to act stronger than we actually are for informaiton and to start down the implied odds trail. I truly believe in this case that if we had bet out on the Flop and hit the flush on the Turn that Villian is done with the hand since he has already dumped 2 bets into the pot and now faces a 20% call at best going into the River. Easy to say now that we know the Qh hit the Turn, but as you all may know I don’t like changing gears in the middle of a hand … raise=c-bet/raise … especially when OOP to take the pot when you can or to punish them when you do hit a Turn like this one. Reading the WSOP updates there is almost never a check on the Flop .. way more likely on the Turn (but certainly not this one!!)
AARRggg … don’t know if I can fold to a bet here …
Thanks for the thorough comment, answer. Couple of questions:
1. I’m open to discussing the turn now if you think it’s warranted. Why don’t you like the check?
2. What information do you believe you would have gotten from betting the flop? Don’t we also get information by checking? (ie we get to see that neither of our opponents wanted to bet)
3. What do you mean when you say “start down the implied odds trail”?
4. Are you saying you wish we’d bet the flop because he would have folded when we turned the nuts? Why would we want that?
I’d encourage you to re-evaluate your position on “changing gears in the middle of a hand.” If you insist on betting every street if you bet the previous one, then you are really handcuffing yourself. I believe in evaluating each situation as it comes and taking into consideration new information such as what the board now looks like, what my opponents did on the previous street, etc.
Flop first … We raised OOP and got a quick call with another straggler. I don’t like offering free cards in this situation especially since we ‘only’ have one pair. Any non-heart card 7 or above could help either of our opponents (even a K could be bad). That’s a ton of cards to fade that will make our decision tougher on the Turn. IF WE HAVE c-bet history, then we need to use it here in order to:
1) Keep control of the betting, not change gears if image allows for it
2) To see if a set/draws plays back at us … may not, but give them the option if they dont like the flush board. Yes, we are building a pot for them too but we have flush to fall back on
3) Create a bigger pot so if we do hit the nuts, we get something out of it before they run away (implied odds … may be wrong use of this term)
4) Why give free card to straggler? Try to get heads up with quick caller.
5) Betting the Flop allows us to check the Turn when we hit our hand (show weakness if just called on Flop) or continue to bet out and make them pay a bigger price to draw again if we got raised on Flop (only sets/strt flush will call a Turn bet and we got something out of the other draws before they folded to a 4-flush board)
6) Betting the Flop creates the same pot size (or bigger if straggler stays) and allows for opponents to bluff the Turn or River into a check raise (when we are just called on the Flop and check the Turn to show weakness).
To lead out on the Turn screams flush and only leads to a higher percentage of hands that can beat us to sticking around when we are OOP for that 25% of hands that will beat us on the River with a FH or strt flush.
I agree you need to evaluate each street on its own merrit AND you need to mix up your play AND we may have lost both these guys with a Flop bet but I would rather have led the Flop and showed weakness on the Turn (downshifted) rather than raise-check-lead … the pot would have been the same size and I probably don’t see a River that I have to fret over becasue I would have had the opportunity to check-raise the Turn.
In this case here, if a set checks behind after we have checked both the Flop and Turn, then we actually save chips when he hits his hand on the River.
I know that getting value is a part of my cash game that needs work, but I think we put ourselves in a tough spot here on the River and I would rather have the 1-pair win on the Flop than the FH-nut flush loss on the River.
Would you still lead out on a Turn that didnt nut you up? That is a HUGE question …
Thanks for quick answers, answer! 🙂
It’s still not clear to me what is the value of (2). I would consider getting raised on the flop a bad thing.
Likewise with (3). I don’t think you’re using the term wrong, but I don’t see why you want to build a pot in anticipation of a draw that you’ll make only 1/3 of the time. If you’re counting on the draw to win the pot, then you’re losing like fifteen cents on every dollar you put into the pot before you make it. This would be like re-raising with 22 pre-flop so that you can win a bigger pot if you flop a set.
Finally I don’t agree with your concern about free cards. Straight draws have six outs going into the turn, and we have redraws if they get there. Sets have seven outs but are unlikely given the pre-flop action. Two-pairs have four outs. The risks of giving a free card are not particularly high here.
In answer to your question, I would bet any turn after the flop checked through.
We are getting closer to agreeing to disagree.
Raise = Bad … yes it is, but it is GOOD to know we have a customer for this Turn (we are calling all raises, right?) AND to more realistically decide how to handle this River OOP (if we get there). We don’t know what the Qh did or didn’t do for him on the Turn (2-pr,set,strt,flush) but if he raises the Flop we know he liked something about those 3 cards (set,2-pr,10h combo draw) that we don’t find out by checking. Which makes checking to him on the Turn easier to do (to act weak) in order to check-raise (hopefully). If he checks behind on the Turn, then we are still in a tough spot on the River again. May want to bet out on the Turn after a Flop raise, but I think we defer to the raiser who may just get lucky on the River if he checks it through.
Don’t you always ‘put your money in bad’ when using implied odds? Otherwise they wouldn’t be implied!! What if an offsuit Q had hit, you had indicated you would have bet almost any Turn … now we are putting in chips hopeing to hit the re-draw flush if we are now behind … my brain sees this as worse since there is only one more card to come, not 2, and we are putting chips in the pot when we are possibly behind instead of when we realistically thought we were ahead. (That may be called value more than implied)
I think most holdings fold away when that Turn hits and I bet out, which means I missed a Flop bet before winning the hand.
On a per hand basis, each hand is beat/behind with few outs to draw to, but with 2 opponents who may not share outs the number of ‘bad’ cards for you collectively is something to consider. No free cards so I can act weak on this Turn by checking with the chips already in the pot.
Can’t wait for the results … wished you had chopped with ‘Dave’ and cashed before leaving town though. There’s always the slots at the airport … right!!
Given the action I think we can isolate his hands pretty well.
limp and quick call early screams middles pair. It might also be AJ,AQ,KQ,QJ,JT,T9,89,76 (all suited except for AJ/AQ), but I would also expect some more hesitation thought before calling with them. Insta-calling screams I-want-to-see-the-flop, which is almost always middle pairs and suited connectors. QQ is probably the upper end of that but seems unlikely to not have raised. Same with AA/KK. I’ve seen players limp call with them, but its extremely rare in my experience.
What would he check on the flop? Checking a set seems unlikely. So JJ and 88 are probably out, AA is already probably out and this just furthers it. AJ seems unlikely to check.
There’s only one have that “fake” grimaces (Td9d). Otherwise its a genuine I’m not sure-I- like-that-card. So it improved him to 2 pair, a set of Qs, a straight, or a flush with a medium diamond. Small chance it counterfeited him if he somehow checked a flopped flush or a set.
Over all it seems more likely than not that if you’re ahead on the turn you’re still ahead on the river.
The question is then is it worth a value-bet? If the max value we can get is say 6k if we bet, and we’re ahead maybe 2/3 of the time we we get here. Even if we’re ahead 2/3 of the time here, I think we’re ahead way less than %50 if we get called/raised. Also I think the possible loss of the chips is more concerning than the gain, i.e. losing 4-6k from a ~54k stack is worse than the benefit of gaining 4-6k on 74k stack.
If I check the question is what do I call? Checking looks weak, but given the paired board the Villain seems unlikely to be anything other than a hand that beats us. If he bets it really seems like we’re probably only ahead something like 1/4 times at best? There’s a lot of assumptions there, though and since I could be wrong I’d widen that a bit for my calling sizing.
So based on the stacks at this stage, excepting a good read I prefer to check-call up to ~1/3 pot and I fold for more than 1/2 pot.
There might be some table image issues to consider as well, but I’m going to discount those for now. 🙂
Hello, that’s my first comment here, I hope it isn’t completely senseless.
I think that part of his range, when he “must” play as he played postflop, seems most probable than others to me. So, he could bet flop with set, AJ, small flush, even AQ and he called the turn because Qd improved him but he could easily fold a straight (calling dead OTT in WSOP against any diamond, OMG) . I think that either he got some (10,4) outs against possible Kd with QQ or QJs or he got second maybe third nuts with TTd,99d (1 out) . Ofc I agree that his range is much wider but … just can’t stop thinking about just these hands, he might have no choice especially when I imagine WSOP pressure and his tell when calling turn . All 3 combos when I am behind maybe played differently preflop so I am more than 2:1 ahead. So I bet/fold 1/3 pot for value and also a bit to prevent him from turning his hand to a bluff with diamond (small chance but, I hate even small chance of being bluffed here).
When he calls but looks displeased on the turn, that suggests he has a strong hand and is annoyed that someone with a weak hand got saved by that stupid diamond. Perhaps he is also annoyed at himself for slow-playing the flop with a strong hand and possibly letting you catch up.
Hands that are a) consistent with this look of displeasure, and b) within a tight player’s UTG+1 range include: AA, AK, AQ, AJ, A8, QQ, QJ, JJ, 88, 76dd, 65dd, KT
(I don’t know how he plays suited connectors from early position; I’ll assume he could have 76dd and 65dd but not 54dd, 43dd or 32dd. I also don’t know if he’d open-limp with KT (or quickly call a raise if he did).)
You are now losing to: AA, AQ, QQ, QJ, JJ, 88. That’s 18 combos. Although you probably have to discount AA, QQ, and JJ since he didn’t raise preflop.
AJ and A8 were counterfeited and likely will not call a bet (nor bet if checked to). KT and AK might fold to a river bet.
There’s not a heckuva lot you can expect to beat if you bet and get called. Weaker flushes are your best bet, but there aren’t many in his range (suited connectors 76dd and below perhaps). I also don’t think he bets anything you beat if you check. As crazy as it might seem, maybe check-fold is right.
Keep in mind that Ad, Kd, Qd, Jd and 8d are accounted for, Td9d gives opponent a straight flush, and that tight players don’t play random weak hands like Td5d, say, from UTG+1.
I am really starting to think this is a check-fold just because of the small number of combos of worse flushes outnumbered by full houses in his continuing range facing a bet.
One thing I haven’t seen anyone mention yet is what a great spot the turn is for villain to float. He may have seen flop check as weakness and the turn bet as just a stab with no diamond, so i think we need to put comeplete air in his range also when considering whether or not to value bet and call a raise.
I think you want to check and call a bet.
There aren’t a lot of hands that he limped with UTG that now beat you. 88, QJs
I’m not sure he has a lot of hands that are going to call if you bet. 10dJx, 109(no diamond), AJ, 107dd, 97dd, 76dd, 65dd.
Even though I feel villain has played it passively. (limp, call, check, call) I just don’t think he’s going to hero call enough with a straight or 9d – 5d if we bet. By checking we also don’t get blown off our hand by a raise if he does happen to have 109dd or 88. Although we do give him the option on how much to put in which isn’t great.
I like a check/call of 1/2 to 2/3rds. I don’t think he’d bet big unless he had a boat or straight flush. If he pots it or over shoves I think it’s a fold from this passive possible rec player.
What’s wrong with getting blown off of our hand by a full house or straight flush?
Nothing I guess since we certainly want to fold second best. (I’m not sure if that sounds snotty but I don’t mean it to be, I’m simply stating that you are correct, it would be nice to know that the nut flush in this situation is not good.)
I think what I meant was that our hand is very good relative to what our opponent could have and now that I’ve read the other posts and even re-read my own post I do think a bet fold is good in this situation.
I feel that our Villain is so passive that he’ll let you know when he has a hand. I also don’t think he’ll go for thin value with anything that you beat but he might talk himself into a call with a small diamond.
I do think he’ll raise with only a straight flush/full house. I don’t think he’d even raise with the 10d with how he’s played the hand so far. In my opinion very passively.
After reading everybody and thinking it through, I think I am torn between check/calling and bet/folding.
Check/calling would lose us some value most of the time but can induce bad villains to bet with lesser holdings.
Bet/folding is taking the lead, only strong-headed villains would raise as a bluff. Most of semi-passive to passive villains would call more often than not with lesser holdings. If raised here, we should fold for sure because I don’t see villain bluffing with such a board.
There is no way my hand is not strong enough to value bet here. Even though it’s the WSOP, I should not be fearful, Andrew is supposed to be a very good player here !
I would now bet 8.5K here and fold to any raise even though an all-in can be done with complete air, this board cries for the nuts to raise on this spot.
I also feel like check/calling is the path to less variance and nitty play meanwhile bet/folding is having more value in the long run since you are at least putting pressure on the other player. Perhaps more variance but also more money in the long run.