Edit: Top card on flop is Ad, not Kd. The latter is in my hand. Thanks to Lacroix for pointing that out, and sorry for the significant error.
The most important information is repeated here, but here’s a link to the pre-flop thread if anyone wants to see it.
Villain 1 (UTG+1, 45K stack) is probably mid-30s, part native Hawaiian and part mountain – he’s a big guy, is what I’m saying. I don’t think he’s a professional, but he did ask me earlier in the day if my last name was Brokos and told me that he enjoyed my articles.
Villain 3 (MP2, 30K stack) is a slightly tilty, slightly grumpy, slightly heavyset bearded guy in his late 20′s. He seems like a pro and talks the talk but isn’t actually all that good. He’s on the loose passive side and too willing to play hands from out of position.
It’s level 3 of the WSOP Main Event. Blinds are 150/300 without an ante. Villain 1 open limps. That’s not unheard of for our table – maybe 5% of pots were open limped – nor for this Villain, though he’s generally pretty tight aggressive and raises more often than he limps. UTG+2 limps, Villain 3 limps, the button limps, and the SB completes.
Hero (60K stack) has Ac Kd in the BB and raises to 1800. Villain 1 calls quickly, UTG+2 folds, MP2 thinks for a bit and then calls, and the others fold.
We’re three to the flop with 6300 in the pot. Flop comes Kd Ad Jd 8d, giving Hero top pair with top kicker and the nut flush draw. What’s your play and why?
Post your thoughts and comments here, and I’ll aim to post results on Friday morning.
Firstly, I assume that the suits of Hero’s hand should be reversed, with AdKc rather than the other way around (since if Kd is both in your hand and on the flop, I think there are bigger issues at stake!).
It is obvious a great flop for Hero, with a premium hand and substantial re-draws.
I recall writing to Andrew asking for his advice regarding three suited cards to the flop and, bearing that in mind, I think Hero should bet around half the pot, representing a fairly ‘standard’ continuation bet. I just can’t see the two villains folding such a co-ordinated flop, given the likelihood that one or both of them have one of the many draws or alternatively top (or second) pair. If there is a raise on the flop, I think Hero should certainly re-raise, to the point of being willing to be all-in.
If there are 1-2 callers, it sweetens the pot, where there are slmost not bad cards for hero post-flop, save possibly for an off-suit Q or a repeat J.
I really think this is a flop someone like V2 might put you to a big test with a re-raise perhaps even an all-in(plus you could always be crushed(okay beat) already vs AJ,A8,J8,88,JJ,2dds). Your hand stinks of AK so at best they put you on AK with a diamond or AJ no diamond both of which you kind half to fold vs a big re-raise. Cash game for 100BB I bet 3/4 pot. Here I think I check-call all day (I hate if I face raise re-raise on the flop, probably fold depending on size/timing).
Oh and in most sports championships team often have a disappointing early playoff loss the year before, so have fun at the final table next year 🙂
Definitely betting around half-pot as a continuation bet.
Any small-medium pair would have a hard time calling and if they do so, it’s money for me !
Villain 1 was perhaps trapping preflop, but facing such a flop, he would have a hard time calling. He can have KK but now must feel he is beat. Betting here must make him fold.
Bearded villain would call you with worse hands quite often and you don’t fear any reraise from him. He is actually the one you want to call here.
I would bet half-pot so Villain would fold with most of his hands and isolate my bearded friend. If Villain 1 calls, he can have a worse A or QQ-KK and doesn’t give you credit for an A.
Bearded would not give you credit for such a good hand often and would have worse holdings he can call 1 or even 2 streets with.
You’ve got an awfully strong hand on the flop. Why are you so focused on what you can make your opponents fold?
You are right Andrew !
It’s simple, it’s because I was in scared nit mode :p
It happens when I play bad poker few days in a row…
You are right on this one.
Thinking about it, reading Gareth’s comment also, I feel like it can be a case for smallballing.
I’m not sure about the fact that you would only be raised by better hands though. I am not sure mountain man would always raise you with better hands, although, sure that if bearded V raises, we face a made flush often.
I would bet 1500 and call a raise even from bearded Villain since I would have the odds for chasing my flush on the turn.
With such a strong hand also hitting the flop hard, we should be way ahead. If not we have a nut redraw. Thus shouldn’t we be looking for value. I think a continuation bet is expected. But I would like to size it just under 1/2 pot to give off some hint of uncertainty. 3k feels like a nice round number to feel as if its an auto c-bet but small enough to encourage callers or perhaps induce a bluff. We could plan to 3 bet any raise to determine if we are actually behind and don’t feel like drawing, or call any reraise to extract value.
Three choices … check (looking to check call), c-bet for value 1/3 to 1/2 pot or c-bet for ‘go away’ 3/4 pot or more. Hero image is huge here in determining the option that might best fit this hand. We have shown strength/steal pre-Flop, but this really isn’t the best board in the world with multiple straight draws, one-pair plus draw potential and made flush or sets as well … but other than the flush you risk those hands developing on most every board anyway. I think the quick call by UTG1 means some sort of pair (any, even 22) or suited connected 9-10 or better. MP2 might have a pre-Flop pair, but more than likely a weaker Ax (which could be 2-pr now) or range of semi-connected cards paint or better. I dont really think we are facing AA, KK or QQ here, but if so, it would be only from UTG1 since MP2 should have re-raised before the Flop.
Check with intent to call … I dont think our steal/raise screams AK pre-Flop and checking would keep our opponents from narrowing our range before they put chips into the pot. We also perhaps want UTG1 to take the lead here (and see if MP2 comes along) since he was so quick to call. MP2 may not come along if there is a bet and call/raise in front of him without AJ or better. Do we want the pot so big that MP2 ‘has’ to shove a Turn he is staying with? Even if we are facing JJ AND a flush, we are still 20% to win going to the Turn … no reason to Fold unless it’s a shove and then we can consider calling anyway. But there is a lot out there we can lose to and a little pot control wouldn’t be such a bad thing if it gets checked around.
C-bet smaller for value … If our image is that we C-bet no matter the board then we should probably continue to do so and probably call any raise that comes along. No harm in pricing any other flush draws to remain in the pot, even if they are 1-pair or straight draw holdings as well. We will only see a raise from sets or AJ … dont think the made flush gets into the act yet. Anywhere from 2500 to 3200 to bet this option. Athough you could do the micro raise of 1500-1800 to make it look like a made flush ‘call-me’ bet and probably controls the size of any raise a little bit too.
C-bet larger for ending the hand or committed to a large pot … We bet the pot pre-Flop. No reason to think we cant do the same here. This should narrow our holdings down in our opponents mind however AND we actually hold the bottom of that range in reality with only 1-pair currently. Not really a good thing since we are relying on the flush if we get any callers or get raised when taking this approach. The positive is that we will probably be heads-up going to the Turn. Tough choice here since you want to get paid if you hit your flush, but also are getting called by a higher percentage of hands you are behind to right now.
I think all 3 choices have merrit, it just comes down to what size pot do you want to push for here. I think check/calling or bet/calling a raise basically indicates we have a large diamond or a set and could shut down the action with a diamond Turn. So lets get some value with a bet of 2500 … if called in 2 places we will have 13.8K with MP2 sitting at 25.7K with fold equity should a blank hit the Turn and we want to push him off his hand. Only issue is if UTG1 raises and MP2 shoves. Now you have UTG1 behind you when you are trying to decide.
Standard C bet as this would be a good flop to C bet even if we whiffed vs two opponents.
In this case, we flopped about as well as we could have hoped, so let’s get some value.
If you get raised, you are likely facing a flopped flush or set (maybe AJ or Td9d).
I am rooting for a diamond to turn that doesnt pair the board, as I will not want to keep building a pot on a blank turn OOP and will be in pot control mode.
I think you play this hand strong with the redraw to the nut flush. I’d lead with 2/3 of the pot bet on the flop, and I’d be willing to get all my chips in on the flop if re-raised. If I run into a made hand such as a set or a made flush, so be it. There are 6600 players in this tournament, and your mission is to win all the chips. So I play it fast and hope to win it on the flop.
Id check. We need villains to put more money into the pot and if we lead they’re most likely going to fold.
We have basically the nuts with a redraw to the nuts. We need villains to stay in the pot drawing dead and bluff at it.
If we blast this preflop and then check on the flop, I think it looks to the avg main event fish like we’re giving up with a hand like 99, TT, black QQ, black KK, black KQ, steals that are chickening out on a “wet board”, etc. When we check, we give villain 2 (the wannabe) the rope to hang himself with, which seems to be the only real way to get any value out of this hand.
Based on preflop, the only set we’re facing here is 88, and the only made flushes here are like exactly T9dd, maaaaybe a hand as bad as QTdd and 76dd seems like a stretch. Combinatorically, we’re lightyears ahead of our opponents. We have infinite value c-bets in our range, and our villains have a TON of hands that are just snap folding on this flop (and, obviously, not very many hands that are doing anything vs our cbet). I do think we could get some light peels if we size our cbet strangely, or maybe even with a normal cbet sometimes, but I can’t see us getting multiple streets of value if we take the initiative and run with it. We just look way too strong and credible here if we continue to pile money into the pot.
Betting just seems pretty bad unless you have a specific read that one of the two villains is going to fight back vs you. Most of the time I would expect a cbet to get an enormous amount of respect, which is the opposite of what we want. I’m checking here, planning on calling a bet from V2. If flop checks through, we can take initiative an “try to steal” the pot with a turn lead. If one of our villains bets for us on flop, I have no problem check calling down assuming the board bricks off, with some plan of blasting money into the pot when a diamond comes.
My understanding of a “wet board” is one where a lot of hands can continue (str8 draws, flush draws, pairs+, etc). While I don’t play much NLHE, this doesn’t seem like it’d qualify … really the only hands that like this board are sets, some flushes, Q and maybe T/9 high flush draws (more likely with something), maybe AJ. AA/JJ are also very unlikely, as are other pair+good flush draws).
Agreed. This is not what I’d consider a “wet” board. Actually I guess the smaller the pot stays, the more likely it is that hand values will change because stuff like small diamonds will play if a fourth rivers, straights and two-pair will be good, etc. The bigger the pot, the more likely that the best hand on the flop will still be best on river.
@ both of you, I agree completely. The board is certainly not actually wet, but I guess I was having a hard time coming up with the actual word (“scary”).
I check, hoping one of them bets and then I check-raise. I’m primarily targeting grumpy, the 30K stack. I think he’s more likely to bet, but I’m not sure either of them will on this board. However, I don’t mind giving a free card on this board and if I bet out, even though that’s what I’m expected to do, it’s more likely to go fold fold. (I’ve had this exact same hand in cash and tourney several times and every time I’ve bet out hoping to build a pot, it’s gone fold fold).
AB argues in his latest Cardplayer article that flopping TP+ NFD or TP with a strong FD is often a great candidate to balance your checking range. In his example he raised K5dd preflop and flopped KXYdd where XY where baby cards (don’t have the article infront of me).
One of his criteria for checking in that spot was that he could not get three streets from betting on account of his weak kicker. Therefore he doesn’t sacrifice a potential three street value hand by checking. Deception and being uncapped on a diamond turn after having checked as the initial raiser are additional benefits discussed.
It seems to me that, on the face of it, this is a spot where one could in fact go for three streets of value. Not often, but not seldom either.
One of the main arguments I can see for checking is not to balance one’s range (this is the WSOP ME after all) or so that we are uncapped on diamond run outs, but rather that, should our continuation bet be raised, we will be playing a pot inflated from the first postflop street.
In a past life I would also argue that we would also lose our ability to play our hand for value if our continuation bet be raised, but I see no reason why we cannot retake the betting lead should it suit us.
I think one of the primary things we risk by checking is failing to build a pot against a hand like QdJx from V3 or QdQx from V1. Or KxQd from either. Then again, that’s a pretty specific type of hand which does not account for much a slice of the limping range pie.
On the other hand we can certainly win a flop stab from V3 often, one might think, from his 3c3s type hands, of which there should be many, from 56ss to J7cc. In other words, hands with very very low equity against our particular holding, that will never put a flop bet in should we c-bet.
On the question of being raised though, sure we could continue versus a raise from either villain, but would we want to? What exactly would their range to raise be besides hands that have us in potentially rough shape? Checking certainly avoids the problem of having to sort out what we should do when raised 🙂 ! And it would be a fairly sticky situation should we c-bet somewhere in the 4300 neck of the woods, with one of our opponents having 30k and able to make it 1/3 of his stack or more with a raise.
I think trying to avoid a bet/fold scenario isn’t an overwhelming consideration and that is one of the main reasons for checking. On the other hand betting sure does seem to fold out a substantial portion of their range, that is air. Betting in a spot where both villain’s fold 80% of the time and we have the board heavily dominated seems unappealing.
What about c-betting 1500? Would this still incite V3 to pitch his 3c3s 100% of the time? Might it inspire wider continuing ranges from both? Just the kind of continuing ranges that have little to no equity versus our hand? Sure V3 may not bluff-raise with anywhere near the frequency he would have stabbed when checked to, but the times he does raise we win a bit more. This way we can still reasonably bet/call flop expecting a range that might include semi-bluffs and pure bluffs.
I feel as if it is between 1500 and checking. I would bet 1500.
With a locked board I bet 1500 or 2000, sometimes with air a lot of the time with ok hands and all of the time with “nut” hands (sets and flushes here). One big problem with checking is that AJ/88, and A8/JJ if they have it, tends to play much better IMO. I can see the argument for checking, in that you often get folds when you have a huge amount of equity but I doubt you get much value anyway and I think you win more by getting folds when you don’t have as much equity (unless one of villains is a maniac, in which case yeh … x/r).
Given the fact you raised big pre. and are OOP, I probably bet 2000. But I pretty much agree with Gareth.
I think we should be betting here. I don’t think checking accomplishes much here. If we check, it will often get checked through, especially if our opponents have nothing. While we may be able to squeak a little more value out of some of their weaker made hands or draws depending upon the turn and river, I think there is more value in building a pot against stronger hands.
As Scott said, there aren’t that many hands we are behind, 88, AJ, and a couple of flush possibilities, and we do have equity against those. If they have those hands, it is a cooler and we get it in anyway.
We really want to get value from hands like AQ, A10, Q10 with one diamond. We should target this part of our opponents range and build a pot in case we both hit. That is how we maximize our value.
As for the size of the bet, it is dependent upon too many factors but I like something like 3500. Looks like a standard c-bet, and builds a pot where we can stack the targeted range.
Hero Checks.
If hero bets, it will be uncomfortable for hero to face a raise. Hero will probably have to face a check, villain shoves on a blank turn or puts 3 to a str8 on the board.
Villain is unlikely to check behind with the best hand because he cannot have the Kd.
Hero cannot win a very big pot here because hero can’t improve (a king is going to put str8 possibilities), villains are unlikely to press a weaker ace, and it will be hard for hero to extract chips if a heart comes off and he is OOP. Out of position.