I would argue that an Ace is the worst possible turn card. In addition to giving Villain the lead if he held AA, it’s a scare card to some portion of his range and also a card he expects to be scary to some portion of Hero’s range. In other words, even if he has a hand like 77 or AQ, he can’t expect us to bet many if any worse hands for value. So while Luisinho concludes that “his check on the turn either means weakness or what he thinks is trapping”, I would add that it could also be a check for pot control/information.
This is why I prefer checking behind. The middle part of his range – the part we beat and that we can expect to pay off another bet – may well be threatened by a bet now but emboldened by a check to put one more bet into the pot. This is what Kelley calls a “deleveraged bet”: any turn bet leaves open the possibility of a river shove, making it very difficult for him to check-call hands as strong as 77. Checking the turn enables gives him a chance to value bet or to check-call a less threatening bet on the river.
Nyy214 says that, “The only reason we would check this turn is to get a crying river call out of a mediocre hand”. Unfortunately I think that’s now the best we can hope for, as even hands like small sets are slipping into the mediocre hand category.
It’s unfortunate not to get his stack, but I agree with Shawn that “Looking to get 3 streets doesn’t seem possible now unless we’re beat. It’ll be hard for Villain to continue with much less than AQ in this spot.” In fact I would go further and say that 77 may well be correct to fold to a turn bet. At the very least, I can’t see Villain putting his whole stack in with 77. What would he be hoping to beat?
Jonny worries that, “If you check back the turn, having called a raise on the flop, it looks like you are taking a bluff-catching line -with either a medium strength or strong hand. So I don’t think any of his pure bluffs are firing the river. For the same reason I don’t think he can bluff catch river (- because your flop check-back range is plausibly quite strong on this board and given the action, and you could have bet your bluffs on the turn).”
This assumes that neither of us would bluff into a clearly defined medium-strength hand. In fact, you’ll often see good players doing this to one another. I would actually be quite easy to play against if I never bluffed and never folded after checking the turn. Even if you can subtract the very bottom of both of our ranges, each of us is good enough to turn weaker made hands into bluffs, and I think each of us expects this of the other as well.
Results and River Action
PokerStars – $2000+$100|30/60 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BB: 9,290.00
UTG: 9,903.00
UTG+1: 11,228.00
Hero (UTG+2): 10,517.00
MP: 7,131.00
MP+1: 11,411.00
CO: 14,790.00
BTN: 6,490.00
SB: 9,240.00
SB posts SB 30.00, BB posts BB 60.00
Pre Flop: (pot: 90.00) Hero has Qh Qs
UTG raises to 120.00, fold, Hero raises to 360.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 240.00
Flop: (810.00, 2 players) 8h Qc 7s
UTG checks, Hero bets 555.00, UTG raises to 1,560.00, Hero calls 1,005.00
Turn: (3930.00, 2 players) Ad
UTG checks, Hero checks
River: (3930.00, 2 players) 6c
UTG checks, Hero ?
I’ll be in the Alps this week, probably with limited access, so I’m not exactly sure when I’ll post my own thoughts. Just please try to leave your comments within the next few days, to ensure that you get them in before I post results, and I’ll get those up whenever I find the time and internet to do it.
Just a quick follow up question about your analysis of the turn: “even if he has a hand like 77 or AQ, he can’t expect us to bet many if any worse hands for value”. Wouldn’t this have been true on pretty much all turn cards, given the action to that point i.e. him repping sets on the flop? (I agree with your point that the Ace in particular makes it more difficult for him to value bet the turn)
Bet-fold now.
I think I like 2200 or so.
If we bet smaller I think we lose a lot of value from smaller sets. Whether he calls with them at this point I think is debatable. So if he was going to call with them do we want say 1300 or 2200? I feel like 2200ish would be his tipping point. Just a guess.
With 2200 I think it also might prevent a jam from AA since one of the possible draws that we might have had got there on the River. (109)
Based on our previous analysis of the turn we thought he most likely had a medium strength hand. His river check seems to affirm this. I don’t think it’s very likely he’d check twice w AA or 9T. So it looks like it’s time to bet for thin value. I bet 1560. Should be small enough to get a call from most of his med. strength made hands. This might induce him to check raise bluff and I’ll be ready to call.
Feels like check, check…”I got 888’s you got qqq’s right”, “ya”.
I think when Hero checks turn V almost never puts Hero on AAA. Villain can have AAA & 910. I don’t think it is impossible for Hero to bet and Villain to jam knowing Hero can’t call. V can’t really bet for value (unless he has exactly 910)and expect Hero to ever call. Well expect if V has AA and then V mind as well check-call to avoid getting raised off probably best hand.
Does Villain ever really think hero has 910 here????
I think V knows Hero doesn’t have AA or 910 here very often at all and so thereby best play for V is to check-call.
Hero should check.
I think it’s more plausible for Hero to have 109 then Villain. Villain was UTG in the hand and mini-raised.
We 3b out of MP1, Cbet/called a raise, Checked back the turn, made our Straight on the River.
Villains line would have to be:
Min-raised UTG with 109s, called a preflop 3b out of position, check raised the flop, checked turn, checked river.
This is still early in the tourney so I wouldn’t think Villain has any reason to get out of line and it’s more plausible for Hero to have 109 with the lines that have been taken. At least I think so.
I actually pretty much agree. I was really just trying to say it is equally unlikely either V or Hero has 910, and/but after Hero checks turn much less likely hero has AA then V (obviously easier to say since we know Hero doesn’t have aa). So V can have a combo of 910&AA more often then Hero.
Having given the free card and now having yet another one of our opponent’s potential hands catch up I am not sure you can bet anything here. Are you prepared to call a raise/shove? He may think that the check on the Turn was weak and go for a move here. Even if he has underestimated our hand do we have a good enough read on his hand to make that call? What range of hands did he put us on?
You don’t want to play scared poker, but it’s early in the tournament and this pot is decent sized as it sits. Take the chips and run, plus you get to see his cards and that may be worth more to us later than the 2000 to 3000 we may want to pick up here with a value bet. I don’t see this opponent as described in the ‘crying call’ business for 40 BB. If we don’t want him to see our cards and we are willing to call the shove … overbet to 4000 and force the action. It may be an early night for us, but I don’t think so.
This is one of those hands where (in a live tournament) you just smile at each other and know that is will be fun to go at it again later when things really matter.
I like your agressivity here but you just said that : it’s early in the tournament and nobody wants to lose his stack.
By putting 4k on the line you scare away anybody with a lesser holding than you and get raised only by the small percentage of hands destroying you and you commit yourself to it.
So, because I’m wondering : why 4k ?
The key with a pot sized bet is that I am already committed to stack off regardless. This would be an action taken only a small percentage of the time … and has a V. Selbst type feel to it. You will only lose to a straight as AA might fold here knowing he is committing his stack and there is a hand that can beat him that just got there and who ‘weak’ checked the Turn but got there … and it’s also a hand that Hero is more likely to have than Villian the way the action went down. I don’t think it looks any more ‘bluffy’ than a 2000 bet (which is more likely to get called). It’s also the action to take if I don’t want to show my cards unless I really have to!!
I don’t really want to bet here, but if I do I am not going to make it easy to ‘math’ call … I want him to agonize over it. Only 9-10 comes over the top IMO and may be enough to scare off AA. It’s a ‘play the player’ play and gains you an extra 2000 to any 77 or 88 that thinks you are bluffing AQ with the 6.
What message do you want to send when you turn over QQ and win? That you didn’t think it was enough to bet with? Show the other players weak play and they will jump on you in the future … but that also may be the message you want to send for a snap off later!! This is why we play the game!!
I know that I am talking out of both sides of the mouth, but that’s the whole point, right??
I understand very well this thinking ! I’m not used to it but it’s really a good reasoning in my opinion. I was more in the short-term vision and yours is more of the long run type.
However, I do think the 4k approach is more of the bluffy type to me, which, on this spot is perhaps not that bad after all 🙂
Whether it is correct or not, I have a tendency to check behind in these spots. I usually convince myself that only a better hand will call (or raise), and I don’t want to open myself to CR bluff when I am not happy to call it off. I think I can find better spots later and preserve my chips. As someone said above, the pot is big enough for this hand. I realize I am losing value from some of his range, but that is the price you pay for being a NIT ;-).
His actions :
1) He wants a showdown with a hand that can eventually bluff-catch (lower set or even AQ for some curious players, thanks Andrew, I didn’t think that much about pot-control, being too straightforward on my game).
2) He is trapping us with the best hand : either AA or 9T
3) He tried to bluff the flop and failed either with a draw or nothing at all (AK is still nothing on the flop)
My interpretation :
1) Since we bet-called the flop and checked back the turn, it’s likely we can check-back the river.
2) Same reasons as above, he is supposed to bet a small amount as a value bet ? Why isn’t he doing it ? He might think we’ve got a hand good enough since we called the bet on the flop and wants us to put some money here.
3) His only way to win the pot is to bet this river right now, why isn’t he doing it ?
My possible actions :
1) I deceive him and make a bet small enough for him to pay for it
2) I check behind because betting would only lead to a higher loss
3) I check behind since he won’t be putting any more money into the pot
Likeliness of his holdings :
1) 77, 88 can play this way and would catch a bet on the river. Not betting the turn for pot control since we showed much strength by calling.
AK, AJ ? Also likely, he’s got information on our call : we are stronger than he is, that’s why he didn’t bet the turn or the river. He is not sure at all he is above us but will call often a small bet if he is curious enough.
I don’t see many more hands that fall into that category
2) AA : plausible with the flop raise, the turn check. The river check is quite fancy since we can’t possibly hold 9T with the preflop action more than 5% of the time. He must bet or else he is losing a lot of value here. At this moment, I would discard this option.
9T : It’s a fancy raise UTG but also is calling our re-raise, they are both “normal” by an agressive player. Flop raise is totally plausible since we think he is the agressive type, turn check for a possible free card is also quite likely after such strength shown by our flop call. As for the river, same goes here, if he played 9T preflop he must be quite LAG. Not betting here is losing money, he knows that. I would discard that option also.
3) All first streets are consistent with that option. The river check is also consistent for a good player since the strength we shown before. A weak player would often bet a high amount here because of our turn check. In that case, a good player can jedi-mind-trick us and induce a bet on our part to go over the top with pure bluff ? Gutsy but I’m going too far.
I actually dislike this spot. I am torn between betting for the small value I can get from category one or checking, not knowing how many times I would be called by category one against being raised all-in by category 2 and eventually 3.
The obvious dictates to bet before overthinking it, a third of the pot would do I imagine.
But I really dislike that spot, like, really, I can’t get 9T out of my mind played like that by a good creative player. It’s a terrible feeling I have but I think I’m a bit overthinking that spot !
I can’t be a chicken with the third nuts with such low chances of him have the nuts or second nuts : I bet a third of the pot. If I get check-raised… I will cross that bridge when I come to it, right ?
It’s funny how his check on the river can mean one of 4 things:
1) totally giving up with nothing/busted draw
2) pot control with any made hand short of the nut straight
3) trying to induce us to bet so he can call/shove with a straight or AA (maybe 88 or 77)
4) trying to induce us to be so he can shove with his nothing/busted draw
and I thought we were supposed to hold the power by being in position 🙂
KK…..He folds to any bet