This isn’t my proudest hand ever, but I do think it’s interesting. I never had much of a plan beyond the current street, which is why I say it isn’t my proudest moment, but I do think that each street has the potential to be profitable in a vacuum. FWIW I’d never seen Villain before, so no reads except that he probably isn’t a regular.
PokerStars – $2 NL (6 max) ZOOM – Holdem – 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BTN: $345.74
SB: $314.91
Hero (BB): $258.40
UTG: $269.90
MP: $136.94
CO: $94.00
SB posts SB $1.00, Hero posts BB $2.00
Pre Flop: (pot: $3.00) Hero has Qs Ad
fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $5.56, fold, Hero raises to $18.00, BTN calls $12.44
Flop: ($37.00, 2 players) 3h 5d 7h
Hero bets $18.00, BTN calls $18.00
Turn: ($73.00, 2 players) 9d
Hero checks, BTN bets $23.86, Hero raises to $88.00, BTN calls $64.14
River: ($249.00, 2 players) Kh
Hero bets $134.40 and is all-in, fold
Hero wins $246.20
I was planning to check-raise the turn even if he’d made a larger bet, though the small bet was encouraging. My plan was to run him off of weak made hands and also extract some value from draws. If he just calls the turn, then I think my hand is actually good enough to check-call a blank river. That’s not to say that I think he’s always on a draw, just that he’d usually check behind a made hand that isn’t good enough to shove over my turn check-raise.
This river, though completing some of his draws, also gives me something to represent. My hand is no longer good enough to check-call, so checking gives him a green light to shove any busted draws he does have. In other words, there’s actually value in shoving into those hands. I also think I can get him off of a lot of one-pair hands, so really I lose only to his rivered flushes. He probably has plenty in his range, but given that I’m shoving barely half-pot, I don’t have to succeed all that often. It’s a spot where the all-in bet probably generated an amount of fold equity disproportionate to its size.
I’m no expert, but definitely would like it more with Ah or Qh (less flushes in his range).
Love the your website Andrew
Kind of interesting to think about what villain should do with TT/JJ here. Folding flop seems like he’s setting fire to money, and with two flush draws and ~10 overs left check the turn feels bad … but yet, we really don’t know what to do with a x/r so betting feels bad.
Recently been try to think about when we should bet here and when we should check for pot control. Maybe better to check overpairs and bet 9x hands with some draw?
I’m also curious if you shove river with 99 or KK, or what your range in general might be because I’d be confused with this line (ofc. I probably decide that, call with JJ and you have Ah9h or more likely AdKd :). I know you said it was spazzy, but just wondering if you are somewhat balanced here or you are just hoping he doesn’t know you aren’t?:)
Button’s most likely hands are medium pairs, 66,88,TT,JJ or possibly an Axs hand that missed the river. With this range of hands, he plays the turn badly. He has to check here with position. This gives him better options on the river to play correctly.
You are committed to a shove on the river with your c/r on turn. Your bluff is spazzy only if he turns over two hearts.