What’s Your Play? Street-by-Street in the SCOOP: Flop

17 thoughts on “What’s Your Play? Street-by-Street in the SCOOP: Flop”

1. meh close decision between betting 245 ish or checking im leaning slightly towards checking, the only problem is there is still so much money behind.

   So id assume betting 245 ish is best simply because when we are so ahead of others their range and we bet, we should try and get an as large part of their range to come along as possible.

   By using this size everyone will still continue with all their valuehands, and some hands might extra spew bluff raise.

2. I would bet. Probably in the area of 50% of the pot so around 400-450. Villian is expecting us to bet as the pre-flop re-raiser so it would be very suspicious to check behind. Our range here is wider than his; he called our re-raise knowing he would be playing OOP the rest of the hand rather than 4-bet us pre-flop. He is expecting us to c-bet with any hand and may be looking to check-raise us off pairs <QQ and AK. Or if we are fortunate enough to have a set over set situation he's not going anywhere and will probably check call. He can check call or check raise most of the time here as either of these plays put pressure on every hand in our range with only a few exceptions (one of which is our holding obviously).

   In addition, we are always trying to play a big pot with a big hand so let's try to build it every step of the way

   • I think you are pretty much right on. You didn’t note that it was a min-raise pre-flop and a flat call. Call me crazy but that screams STRONG to me. Let’s hope he has AA or KK, make him pay big time for river card.

3. I feel bad commenting because I never played at these stakes.

   His range is pretty wide preflop but raising, then calling a reraise UTG, then checking tells quite a lot about his hand. I would often see smallish pairs 44+ and also AQo+, AJs+.

   Why would I bet ?

   I assume at these levels, everybody is quite agressive. I also assume that your name is quite known. So even if you didn’t play much at this tournament already, you are supposed to be an agressive player in an agressive field.
   +1 for a bet

   You reraised before the flop, a c-bet is expected most of the time = +1 for a bet

   After such an action preflop, I don’t see many players folding to a bet on the flop unless he was on total air preflop, he would often call with overpairs, overcards or a piece of the flop. +1 for a bet

   Why would I check behind ?

   Concealing the strength of our hand +1 for a check
   At these levels, I would assume that if I just check, people would put me on a possible set in the next streets if I bet. I do think my hand is better concealed by betting here, not that much people would imagine someone betting with a set so easily. -1 for a check

   The board is quite dry, weak to average players would flee +1 for a check, but he is no average player, he seems talented from your description. -1 for a check

   A bet it is then !

   I love to c-bet between half to two-third of the pot. Half can be seen as weak or really strong and two-third screams TPTK with such action preflop. I feel that between half to 2/3 is quite neutral if a bet can be neutral.

   I would bet 500.

   • Nothing to feel bad about – that was very well reasoned! 🙂

     • Well thanks, off for the weekend, I will think about at my friend’s shack while swimming at the lake !

   • I think by raising preflop I’m already representing a hand such as 88+, AJos+.

     I think by betting here I’m strongly representing a hand such as 88 to JJ and AJ+. Not sure about representing KK-AA because I would perhaps check on such a dry flop to conceal them.

     88-JJ and AJ+ because with these hands I would try to get the pot uncontested right now after a check from him.
     I know that I’m also representing AQ with this kind of action preflop, but his range includes small pairs that can make set either now or on the turn whereas AQ is only a small part of our range. Actually, if nothing is threatening on the turn, we would be glad to check behind on the turn to show weakness ?

     If he is agressive enough, he can even try to raise us right here on a bluff attempt.

     I surely hope to be called by AJ-AQ-AK or a smaller pair which made a set on the flop or perhaps with such deep stacks, would try to get one on the turn.

     I don’t think 9T or 56 is part of his range though even though I would be glad to be called by them.

4. I’d either bet around 300-350 or check behind.

   Reasons for betting:
   – Villain probably expects you to bet pretty often in this spot, so it doesn’t show too much strength.
   – If he has a monster 88/77/87s you want to start building a pot now. If he’s really good it’ll be tough to stack him if you check back cause it will look very suspicious when you’re suddenly willing to build a huge pot after checking on the flop. Same is true if he has KK/AA.

   Reasons against betting:
   – He’ll fold quite often. That being said, I don’t think he’ll put a lot of money into the pot with the range of hands that he’d fold to a bet anyway.

   Reasons for checking:
   – It’s not a perfect flop for hero considering villain’s range, so it’s not out of the question that hero would check back with some air/pairs below top pair. So checking shouldn’t raise a red flag yet.
   – Unless he has 88/77/87 you’re probably not gonna win a huge pot, so you don’t lose a lot of value by checking and you can make up for that by inducing some bluffs on the turn.
   – Villain might catch something on the turn. However I think this is a very minor point and overrated by a lot of players. If he has Ax he has 3 outs to make a reasonably strong hand, if he has a pp he has 2 outs. Best case scenario would be if he has like 98s, because then he has 5 outs to improve, but these kind of hands are probably going to c/c the flop anyway.

   Reasons against checking:
   -It should confuse him a bit, because the hands that would often check this flop (99-JJ 8x/7x) shouldn’t really be in your preflop 3betting range. Maybe you 3bet light with A8/A7s. Usually it’s a good idea to confuse your opponents, but in this spot, I wouldn’t be surprised if his response to what looks like a weird line is going to be caution and not aggression. This based on preflop action (especially position) and stage of the tournament. This is highly debatable though.

   It’s very close I think but I’d probably bet around 300, mostly because that’s what villain expects us to do and he’ll have some plan on how to combat this. I also don’t think that checking is going to induce some big bluffs from him. And he’s not going to improve very often either on the turn. If hero had some more history with villain and if it wasn’t an early position battle I’d be a lot more inclined to check and try to induce a bluff.

5. We have to bet. 1) We have the nuts, very deep for an online tourney/3bet pot situation, and want to build a pot that will compound on itself. 2) We should have no expectations that checking back will disguise our hand to such a degree that villain will bluff and value bet worse in excess value to what we can get ourselves versus his “put in a lot of money” range. We also basically resign ourselves to never having a bluff range if we check back.

   Sizing, he probably has a fair number of hands that can continue versus one bet but certainly not three. We should worry about our sizing versus his undersets to a degree. We don’t want to not stack them by the river. It doesn’t seem to me that making a smaller size in order to elicit a check-raise — what might check-raise 415 but not 555? JTs exactly? — has much merit. He has plenty of undersets, case QX combos, and 99-JJ combos that are going to continue versus exactly 3, exactly 2, or exactly 1 streets that we should size larger relative to the pot while maintaining the narrative of having a bluff range.

   So 555 might actually fall short of that. If he just calls pot on the turn will be 1920; a situation where we can’t get all in by the river (we would have to bet 2000 on the turn, then shove 7k into 6k on the river, or bet 1300-1450 and make a massive river overbet shove). I worry again about looking too strong and wonder if we can get away with 615. It sounds like he is a good enough player to just check-call 3 with 77/88 here and we might just have to live with not getting his entire stack but rather a 3.6k river bet from him. If that obtains I might just chalk it up to him being a good player and understanding the situation.

   This is getting fairly tangential but our hand is actually pretty well disguised and figures to be well disguised often on the river as well — this means we might be able to bet 615, a 1325-esque turn sizing, and consider shoving river so long as the board runs out nonK, nonA, and relatively clean.

   I think in general though he
   a) won’t have a playing back range in this spot that’s even worth considering
   b) will have hands on this board that are willing to c/c 1 street, c/c 2 streets, and c/c 3 streets, fairly indifferent to sizing. In other words, QX probably calls 2 streets if we go 615, 1315 just as often as it does versus 555, 1125, while 99-JJ probably calls 1 street if we go 615 just as often as 555, and wouldn’t call 1125 versus 1315 with any worrisome difference. QX will give up the ghost facing 3 streets of heat almost always so we shouldn’t worry about our river sizing being too big to blow it out of the pot, while undersets will never fold to a river size that’s less than the size of the pot, assuming the board runs out reasonably.
   c) will rarely try to take the pot away versus a check-back that reps showdown value and pot control. The value of river bets is so huge that it would be very difficult for checking back to ever be superior. Besides on this board, with this player, we should never expect him to spazz out… certainly in no amount that would make checking back > betting.

   So bet 615. If he types in the chat “man I would have probably called 3 if you bet 555” then folds…. well then curse your luck for being so greedy.

   • +1, what you said is what I was thinking basically.

6. I’ll bet 888 quickly, hoping that makes him put me on AA or KK and induces him to raise or float me if he has a suited connector that hit str draw or pair +.  Side effect is protection as we want to charge any drawing hand.  He could also have a sneaky AA or KK but think I’ll still at least get a call out of him.  Downside is chasing away 99 to JJ, but maybe he’ll turn those into a bluff sometimes.  Doesn’t matter too much what we do if he has 77 or 88, but at least betting right away gets more money in now before scare card comes .

7. I like 550…though I guess for Hero that translates to 555 🙂
   People already made the case but it is a combo max value by the river& V can put you on aa/kk & he might call wide.

   I don’t like a little bet here because it feels like a situation where you will get to the river and he will only call/ship on you with the nuts…call/call/ship fml 🙂

8. 600 – Villain shouldn’t have to many draws in his range so you’d like to target his over pairs and undersets. AA-KK, 88, 77.

   If we don’t think we can get three streets of value out of over pairs or if we think Villain is capable of folding smaller sets then I think we should check the Flop.

   But overall I think a bet to 600 looking to get 3 Streets.

9. I agree with betting, sizing between 430-550. His pocket pairs below 7 probably aren’t putting more money in the pot anyway, his pairs between 9’s and J’s will call at least once, and his smaller sets or 78s should raise for value. Keeping the sizing close to 1/2 pot should also tempt him to raise his other SC’s (910s,56s,69s), and he may even bluff-raise with air given the relative dryness of the flop. Checking or overbetting the flop seem like mistakes, but actually don’t hate either option.

10. VIllain’s range looks like an “implied odds”, SC or mid-small pair, hand as it is difficult to slowplay a big hand,AA KK or AK, like this (min-raise giving good odds for multiway pot and then call OOP vs a pro).
    I agree that villain wait a c-bet from hole of Hero range. I agree also that if villain check and then start bet or raise it will be obvious his hand. Hero has the best hand in his range so the bet is mandatory.
    With his bet Hero must represent his hole range. I believe villain’ s range in this flop has strong made hands, like sets or 2pair (77,88,78) weak made hands like one pair and draws like OE, gutshots and middle pairs.
    About the size of the bet… Vs strong made hands isn’t important as they’ ll go all-in i think at flop or turn. Vs. weak made hands and draws a bet about 40-50% don’t give the right odds, induce a call from weak made hands and may be will looks weak for a check-raise semibluff…

11. I would bet roughly 650, 80% of the pot. This is quite a large bet and to me screams “Please fold”. We know the Villain is a solid player and with a bet of this size he isn’t going anywhere with AQ, 88, 77 or 78 but I think would be more likely to induce a semi-bluff from T9, 56, JJ, TT and 99. The only hands we would scare away that might float on the flop would be JT and AK, and I think AK is an unlikely holding since most players would 4-bet pre-flop with AK.

12. We want to bet the same size with our entire range here. He’s unlikely to be on a draw so we want to get called by A high, K high, mid PP and also potentially induce a check/raise. The board being so dry, he expects us to cbet 100% of the time.

    Based on this quick analysis, I bet 1/3 pot here.

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