Thanks as always for your comments on the flop action. I think just about everyone was on the right track in terms of how they were thinking about Villain’s range. So let’s discuss our options.
Checking
As is generally the case in deep-stacked situations, the answer isn’t real clear cut and it’s important to balance your ranges. While I agree with the consensus opinion that betting is best, you should occasionally check a hand as strong as top set against a very good player like this one simply to protect the rest of your checking range. In other words, you don’t want it to be the case that once you check, you never have a hand strong enough to play for stacks if the turn and river brick off. An added benefit is that if you later represent a set after checking, your opponent may refuse to give you credit for it and pay off light.
Top set is in many ways a good candidate for slowplaying because it can be difficult for Villain to hold a second-best hand. When you flop middle or bottom set, you generally want to play it fast in hopes that your opponent has made top pair. In this case, with you three queens accounted for, Villain won’t have top pair very often, so there’s more of a case for giving him a chance to bluff or catch something on the turn.
Then again, crsseyed warns that, “Any A or K on turn will prob be more of a scare card to villain (helping us) than a helping card to villain (doubt villain will continue with weaker Ax on turn than AK here, which he prob would’ve 4 bet preflop).” So it’s not clear that a free card is really all that likely to generate action for us.
Betting
NotCIA correctly argues that, “Villain raised UTG pre-flop, albeit a min-raise, and called your 3 bet, so there’s a good chance he has something with which to call a c-bet. Pocket 9s, Tens and Jacks could easily call, AA, KK, 88, and 77 could all fire back.” Although top pair is unlikely, Villain should overall have a rather strong range for seeing the flop. After all, we were concerned about re-raising pre-flop because it would look so strong. To call that re-raise, a good player will have either a strong made hand or, to quote Giorgios, “an ‘implied odds’, suited connector or mid-small pair” with which he is trying to see the flop cheaply.
A few commenters argued that AA/KK/AK were all unlikely because Villain would have 4-bet them. Although 4-betting those hands would of course be reasonable, I don’t think it’s at all mandatory. Villain is out of position 200 BBs deep against a player he presumably considers competent to good. In such a situation, it’s extremely dangerous to turn your hand face-up. It’s all extremely difficult to balance a 4-betting range in this scenario. If we though 3-betting an UTG raise from early position would look strong, imagine how strong it would look for Villian to 4-bet back. If he makes this move with AA, I’m likely to put him on more or less what he has and play well against him post-flop. With so much money left to be wagered, that’s a big risk to take just to put in one more bet as a favorite.
Finally, as NotCIA also argues, betting will “look natural”. In other words, Hero has alread shown a lot of strength with his pre-flop re-raise, but at this point Villain may well expect him to bet his entire range. Betting won’t necessarily represent any further strength, nor will checking necessarily represent weakness. In fact, a check may well look like a hand as strong as AA playing a bit of pot control and setting up to get to showdown more cheaply.
Bet Sizing
If we’re going to bet, which we should more often than not, we need to decide how much. Dsho argues for
between 430-550. His pocket pairs below 7 probably aren’t putting more money in the pot anyway, his pairs between 9’s and J’s will call at least once, and his smaller sets or 78s should raise for value. Keeping the sizing close to 1/2 pot should also tempt him to raise his other SC’s (910s,56s,69s), and he may even bluff-raise with air given the relative dryness of the flop.
That pretty well sums it up. I erred on the larger side of what could be considered “non-suspicious” because I believed Villain unlikely to fold the flop.
Results
PokerStars – $2000+$100|30/60 NL – Holdem – 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
BB: 9,290.00
UTG: 9,903.00
UTG+1: 11,228.00
Hero (UTG+2): 10,517.00
MP: 7,131.00
MP+1: 11,411.00
CO: 14,790.00
BTN: 6,490.00
SB: 9,240.00
SB posts SB 30.00, BB posts BB 60.00
Pre Flop: (pot: 90.00) Hero has Qh Qs
UTG raises to 120.00, fold, Hero raises to 360.00, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, UTG calls 240.00
Flop: (810.00, 2 players) 8h Qc 7s
UTG checks, Hero bets 555.00, UTG raises to 1,560.00, Hero ?
Post your thoughts and suggestions here as comments, and I’ll be back on Monday with my own thoughts as well as results and the next decision point. Thanks and have a great weekend!
Call the check raise.
Thinking he’ll barrel the turn. If he puts us on JJ-99, 66-44, AQ and he either has an over pair or a smaller set I think want to give villain some more chances to bluff at it with either AA-KK, AQ, 88, 77.
By raising now I think villain might fold his over pairs or AQ as he still has 2 streets to worry about with the pot quickly getting large.
We’d also like him to possibly keep bluffing with lower pairs and lower sets. The thing about lower sets is I think there’s a high probability that we get all the money in anyways by the River so you’d like to keep his over pairs, TPTK and lower pairs in his range.
I still think the possibility of Villain having a draw in this instance is low and it’s worth letting him see another card. (109s, 65s)
oh wow. I think calling is the play. He is doing a great job of building a pot in which we can get stacks in. I guess we have to worry about a J and a 6 primarily, but I’m not sure we can do much about it since keeping him bluffing is going to be so profitable and there aren’t that many action killers to come if we are in a set over set situation.
I should hasten to add that I am looking to raise/shove over a turn bet.
I feel like calling gives Villain exactly what he wants (given we don’t fold)i.e. to see another card with his semi-bluff j/10 most likely. Once you don’t fold if he has some kind of draw is he really putting any more money in the pot unless he makes it? Yes he might fire the turn but I don’t think you can 100% count on that. Sure he can make a lower trips if he bet 99/10’s/jj but we don’t know if those are made straights or smaller trips.
I think raise 2k more to like 3500 (I think it reps aa/kk)…gives him about 5k behind with like 8k in the middle…
I doubt he thinks you ever have 777 or 888.
Maybe he ships it light saying Hero can only call with top set if he has it good for him.
If he has 777/888/78 he might get cold feet when you flat call but I really doubt he can fold flop.
Having said I admit in the moment I probably just call.
If he wanted to see a card that badly he’d just call. The problem with thinking he would raise in that spot with your line of thinking is that he’s OOP. If he was in position, then he could call, hope the person checks the turn since he raised the flop and then Villain could check behind and see the river for free with his straight draw. Being out of position doesn’t bring that guarantee and he’ll more than likely fire the turn after raising the flop with JT or another straight draw.
I think calling is the best play here. Villain is building the pot and more importantly there is no risk of missing a turn bet as a result of the call because you’re in position. It under-represents your hand as it looks like a one pair hand of some sort and we also give him rope to keep bluffing.
Calling is the play here … A re-raise here pretty much commits us to our stack (and clearly defines our hand as one of the sets or AA), which we don’t want to send that message BEFORE we see the Turn card and we want UTG to feel like he can lead bet ALL Turn cards, not just those that improve his hand. Although UTG could call the re-raise, he shuts down unless he improves.
A smaller Flop bet would have allowed for a re-raise at that time, but it probably would have put UTG in shut down mode a street earlier without improvement and we get less chips.
He knows he gave us 3 to 1 to call which will help him narrow our range, but not to the point where he should be convinced we have a set. I don’t think we mind checking down the Turn here either as I have seen/read many cases where a Turn check is ‘fine’ (whereas our Flop check would have been ‘strong’). Both sides still have fold equity going into the Turn … I just don’t know if we can fold to an A or K on the Turn and it will probably be too late on the River …
Side Note … Daniel Negreanu folded middle set in the WPT this week when he got a re-raise on the Flop on a AJx board. Pretty hard for most all of us to do!!
I think the question is whether stacks are still deep enough that a call won’t look strong, but not so deep that we can consider folding if scare cards come on the next streets. If we call 1K, pot is 3900 and we have 8K behind. I think that is about the right size for a call, as it could show indecisiveness or a drawing hand and get him to fire another barrel on the turn with some of his bluffs, and if he doesn’t then we can bet the turn and get all-in on river. I think the problem with raising 2 to 3K more is you remove all bluffs from his range as you will be pot committed. Can you min-reraise? I guess that might still leave room for him to bluff shove, but I think that raise size will look strong as well.
I don’t think he has any bluffs that intend to continue bluffing after you call. I doubt he thinks you are 3betting 99-JJ pre. He could be trying to get you to fold AK or some air that you 3bet with, but he won’t expect you to float his flop raise with those.
So I think concentrate on stacking 77 and 88, and charging draws. I think I prefer a small flop 3bet to calling.
Sorry I missed the first rounds, but for the record, I would have raised pre flop based on stack sizes (and called a 4B). I would also bet the flop barely over half pot to look like a standard CB on such a dry flop, as he would expect this with your entire 3B range. A check would look very suspicious (at least to me). I still remember an episode of HSP years ago where Matasow opened QQ, flopped a set on a board like this and checked it multi way. Doyle says after the hand “we knew you has Queens when you checked it”. Funny how those hands stick with you.
When he CR, you can’t call without showing strength.
All of his CR bluffs shut down.
Smaller sets are probably getting the money in anyway, and the only other hands likely to stack off this deep are AA and KK (maybe). You would have to give a gift receipt to AQ.
Calling his CR is not going to trick anything else into losing more (IMO).
The only reason I can see for calling is if you thought he could get away from a smaller set or over pair if you 3B, but may continue with them if you call.
So go ahead 3B small hoping he will shove his overpair or smaller set.
I dont think you can get any action from any other hands.
Maybe AQ can hit an A and go crazy with top 2P?
Then again, and A or K turn puts you in a tough spot if you flat call the CR.
Can you fold?
Calling polarizes his view of our range, but with 1005 to call and 2925 in the pot, he can still put us on the draw (T9/65), right?
I dont think he ever puts you on T9 or 65 when you 3B UTG open from +2 (I wouldn’t).
Maybe if you were in LP, but not from early middle position.
I generally agree with Kelley’s reasoning. I was actually going to suggest to click it back. I don’t think villain’s worse hands are putting any more in unless they hit, as I don’t think villain will barrel into our perceived range of AQ/KQ/AA/KK. Regarding the last couple of comments, I think T9, 65 should be a small part of our range preflop – still, I think a larger cbet would be expected with those hands. Even so, he can put those hands in our range, but still weight our range towards AQ,KQ,AA,KK.
Clicking it back gives him close to the right odds to continue with his draws, lets him shove his value check-raising range, and keeps bluffs in our range (this is a very small % of our range, but we are more likely to be bluffing when we raise here than when we call). As you’ve said in previous posts, if calling and raising both provide information that our hand is strong, we may as well charge for the information. This may apply more for ring games, but I believe it also applies to this situation, early in a tournament.
Long time, first time… Interesting hand.
I’d be tempted to click it back too. It depends on image and how much you might be able to induce a spaz shove/4bet – after all, from the villain’s standpoint, you’re just playing position here, you can’t possibly have the nizzles in this spot, you’re just f-ing with me by 3betting pre, bet/raising a pretty dry flop, you’re smart enough to know how to manipulate a situation like this… etcetc.
Calling the flop raise makes it seem like you could care less what comes on the turn – which would mean you’ll have a hard time getting more action unless villain really improves.
Clicking it back looks more “move” like – if you make it like 2700 to go, you “leave yourself enough room to fold” to a 4bet or shove – and if villain has 77/88 or wants to flex with T9/65, it gives him room to gift you more chips.
Loooooong. Go to the end if you wish to read the TL;DR (Too long ; didn’t read).
He just called preflop so I think at first he must have had a setmining hand (small-medium pair), or a AJ+ hand. As Andrew pointed out AA-KK is quite possible as a trap. The draw is really really less likely but not totally out of his range.
What is his check-raise representing ?
– Set 30%
– Overpair 30%
– TPTK 15%
– Bluff 15%
– Draw 10%
What would be your reaction with each hand against a reraise ?
His check-raising a set is not the best option in my opinion. I think I would bet 80% of the time on the flop with this hand because often people are checking with their set OOP thinking they can trap.
– If someone reraises me while I hold the second set, it would be tough for me not losing all my money here. A very tight or straightforward player would make me fold some very few times.
Check-raising with an overpair is totally possible for him, although I’m not sure you would win that much money with such a move against average opponents. Against you of course, you can see that as a move and you can try to bluff or think that your TPTK is the best right now, after all, only AA-KK are better pairs.
– I would call a reraise 80% of the time on the flop against a good player, 4bet 10% of the time and fold 10% of the time.
Check-raising with TPTK is marginal in my opinion. It’s totally on Villain’s range since the preflop action but I feel it’s less likely part of his possible actions on the flop.
– If I get reraised here with this holding I would have hard time not to think about a set. I would not be calling a reraise here if I won’t call/bet on the turn a huge amount. I would fold. If he’s smart and a good hand reader, he could figure out you are holding a set relatively easily and fold too.
Check-raising with a draw is totally possible. It’s actually less likely with the preflop action but is plausible with the flop action.
– If the pot odds are enticing, I would call for sure. I would even call sometimes with slightly less enticing pot odds facing the opportunity of getting a whole stack for that amount. If I don’t make it on the turn, it’s an easy check/fold for me. Perhaps a better player would try to double-barrel bluff the turn.
I love how Harrington pointed out in his book to include a 10% bluff range in a player’s range and is accurate in my opinion. In that case, I would even be thinking it can be a bit more since his preflop call and ALSO the flop action are a bit fancy. I don’t see many check-raises with the nuts. It often rings a huge bell to any good player.
– I would not put anymore money if I get reraised here. If I feel my opponent is weak, I would bet the turn 20% of the time.
Since ~65% (I add 5% from the TPTK) of his range would be more likely to at least call a reraise, I would go for one. Also, a reraise can be the same as screaming “I’ve got TPTK, I don’t want to see any further street!” for some players and induce some bluffs.
What is the good amount ? Right now he’s got 8100 left, how can I commit him without showing it too much ? What is the amount I would call the most with the range I just described ?
I would bet 4000, asking him ~2500 more for the prospect of winning 6440 which represents ~37%. If he thinks his call would give him a free card, he would have 34% chance for hitting his draw, so it would be a nice error for him to call.
It’s also just the right “neutral” amount. I’m not betting enough to scare away the guy or trying to make him think I’m bluffing, I’m not betting too little to make him think I want him here either.
If he calls, he can feel committed on betting/calling any two on the turn : he would have 5600 left for ~9000. Any bet on my part of around a third of the pot is quite committing for him with a draw let’s say.
TL;DR :
With a set, he would rarely think of QQ.
With an overpair, we would look like TPTK.
With TPTK we can look a bit like AK but more likely as holding a set.
If he bluffs there is a small percentage chance that he shoves even though he would fold more often.
I don’t think a total bluff is a good part of his range because of his preflop UTG raise.
Since his range is more weighted towards sets and overpairs which would give us action on the flop, I would raise to 4k total, inducing a bluff if he is weak enough and/or committing him with a medium bet on the turn.
This is still pretty dry board. I doubt he is getting crazy w mp or even tptk. Therefore, valuerange is indeed narrow. What hands is he then raising here. I see draws like cutter+bdfd being only possible considering he is oop 200bb deep. I doubt he calls pre T9s oop deep as y stated he is competent. However, there is not that many that kinds of draws possible. Maybe JTs, KJs, and thats pretty much it.
I
Therefore, we have left sets and ops and perhaps some compos of weak draws. I think he does not believe we have 77, 88 often here. Our monster range is therefore pretty narrow in his eyes QQ. There is dilemma now, if he has op like kk, aa those hands are most willing to get money in on flop due to their vulnerable nature. On the other hand, despite you rep narrow with reraise, is he capable stacking off AA here? Perhaps as he does not put you on smaller sets?
Considering draws are pretty much minor of his range, and rest consists of op and sets best is to reraise small. Combowise there are more ops than sets and op put more willingly money in on flop than later. I am making small reraise. Benefit of this is also that he may see it as bluff or test raise to certain extend
Hero show strength preflop and c-bet as villain expect..Now villain c-raise… Hero has the nuts and he want to find the best way to put the money in (or as much he can). To find out this Hero must think ahead and see how villain’s c-raise range can go all-in.
Villain’s c-raise range is obvious big made hands, sets 2pair or (less likely)* AA-kk, semibluff with draws, OE or gutshots, or one pair that villain knows that has improve and may be air.
First instict to me was that call was the best option. After calling the c-r the pot will be about 4000 with 8000 effective stack left. But looking the villain range and SPR (=2) I think he won’t put any more money in with semibluffs, if turn bricks, or with air.
So with strong made hands its easy to go all-in. But with semibluffs he continue only if he hit his draw and beat our hand. I believe Hero must raise here. How much ? An amount that give the illussion of fold equity to villain if he decite to go all-in… About 1500-2000 more.
* One question Andrew: I believe villain can’t have AA or KK with his line (min raise UTG risking a multiway pot and then calling OOP so deep).What do you thing? But then if I’m right isn’t to obvious for a tournament pro? TY
Played this exact hand last night in cash!! Smooth called a re-raise pre-Flop from the Button. 3 of us saw basically this board Q78. I checked the Flop trying to induce the Turn. 8 on the Turn!! SB fires out 60% of the pot with double flush draw out there. 3rd guy folds and I paused a bit before min raising. He tanked a little and then gave it up … dang-nab-it!! Obviously was hoping he was strong enough to have straight or one of the flush draws to call me with … or even an eight. What was the re-raise pre-Flop all about?? small pair or AK no flush?? He was the other big stack at the table too … was ready to play a big pot.
Huge(??) lay down on last hand of the night (we close at 2am in charity rooms in Michigan). Get KQo on the button, 4 handed as I just busted 2 guys the hand before. I raise and 2 callers, both blinds. Flop Q106. I bet only 35% of pot, call, call. K on Turn (now heart draw also) … bingo, right … wrong. I bet out 60% of pot … all-in for 2x my bet … all-in for 5x my bet!! Was this a frustration shove or the real deal? The 5x bet came from the same guy as the above hand. I decided to take one of my best nights in quite some time to the cage and folded the KQ face up … much to the surprise and disappointment of both players as they showed QQ in the SB and J9 in the BB. A heart did hit the River … if I had been drawing to hearts. That would have set me off a bit after working all night to build a nice stack … always nice to go home on a positive note!!