What’s Your Play? Four-Flush on the River

27 thoughts on “What’s Your Play? Four-Flush on the River”

1. Maybe I’m not thinking about this deep enough, but I’d c/f here without much thought. We’re pretty close to the bottom of our range here, and it’s pretty hard for villain to get to the river here with a hand that needs to be turned into a bluff. I can’t imagine you’re getting exploited here by just folding. I guess you could do something crazy like c/r bluff but given that villain might be a fish given his open limp, it seems pretty spewy to me.

2. The only thing that confuses me is his sizing on the river. Wouldn’t a player with the Ac or a full house bet closer to pot on the river to make it look like he is polarizing his range to get you to snap off with a hand like you have?

3. We’re only ahead of T9 and 65 (no clubs) that have missed a draw and are bluffing the river. So, calling is WAY out IMO.

   Check-raising is very possibly profitable given that Villain is most likely to have a flush on a paired board.

   There are enough Ac flushes in Villain’s range though that we probably have to raise pretty large to have enough fold equity.

   I think the EV of raising vs. folding is quite close and I’m not comfortable counting on Villain folding a decent flush without any reads. So, I’m folding here but I don’t fault someone for raising to $60+

4. I fold. If villain’s stack size was larger than I might consider a bluff check-raise, but his remaining stack of $115 is a bit awkward for attempting a bluff. I don’t think a $40 to $50 (over his $18) will work as he’ll just make a crying call and if you bluff larger then not enough behind to fold to a re-raise (so then you just have to check re-raise all-in and that doesn’t seem like a good long term play to me).

5. Flop, you bet pot. Turn, you bet over half pot. River, you check. Decreasing bet sizes usually shows weakness to me. I don’t know if he would believe a bluff. I see two options, fold or shove. I think I would fold more often than shove. I think he’s calling with trips or a weak flush.
   Why not 3 barrel at river with 3/4 pot. If he raises, you fold losing a quarter of your starting stack. He would fold alot of better hands like trips or strong Kx type hands.

6. I play at a fairly low level, but I’m going to insert my $0.02 in this position.

   Starting from scratch (with respect to the previous posters) It seems to me that the bettor’s range is fairly wide. Given the three clubs on the flop, he could easily have been drawing to a flush, playing with top pair or maybe playing to a straight (gulp) draw.

   Any hand that could be betting for value is ahead of hero here. Therefore the only options are :

   (1) Call to pick off a bluff;
   (2) Raise to terrify the opponenty and make Villain fold; and
   (3) Fold.

   Opponents range appears too wide for the raise, especially since ‘average’ players tend to call when perhaps they shouldn’t. To go for the check raise would need us to consider villain an average opponent. This is particularly in the situation where Hero has bet the flop and turn but checked the river on the fourth suited card. Given that (if hero held a serious hand) there was a serious risk that Villian would check behind, I say that the bet signifies strength more often than not, and I fold.

7. “particularly so in the situation” [edit]

8. Players usually open limp with hands they want to see a cheap flop – hands such as suited and unsuited connectors, small pairs, weak suited or unsuited aces etc. I don’t think villain calls a pot size flop bet with a naked straight draw but would likely call with say 9To with one club . There are plenty of Ac in his range say Ac2o to AcTo. He checks back the river with a naked King (a tough player might turn a King into a bluff, but not this villain). Here are the better than one pair combos in his range. 77 -3, 88 -1, 78 – 6, K8s, K7s – 3, Ko9c to Kojc 3×3, Ac2o to AcTo – 9×3. 9cTo, 9oTc – 2×3. Forget 56. 8o9c – 3. A8 – 9 and of course a slow played flopped flush.. This villain is not making a weak naked bluff in this spot. A call here is about 100 to 1 shot.

9. Can we get him off his weak flush and trip hands and should we try? In fact we should answer the should we try question first. Lets assume he won’t fold boats and nut flushes but we are not sure about the rest. He has about 40 combos of boat and nut flushes and about 27 of the rest. If we shove we are betting 116 to win 56 so we need him to fold 76%. If we think he will fold everything except boats then we just have the odds.
   Will he fold? He has to call 98 to win about 200 so he is getting good odds to call with his nut flushes.

10. I think some of my combo calcs are inaccurate but the basic conclusions remain the same.

11. I’m a casual player, but I’m surprised no one used Mathematics of Poker’s like thinking to decide on a value/bluff range.

    I think the decision here is between folding or bluff-raising, as calling to catch a bluff with no clubs seems really difficult.

    So what is the value range? From preflop play it is very unlikely anyone holds a pair 77, QQ or KK, so that a full is not part of our value range.
    The value hands are then the nut flushes Acx. If we want vilain to be indifferent between calling our raise or folding, shouldn’t our bluff range be equal to our value range and being the lowest part of our range here so one Kx, for example a black Kx?

    • Hi Jeff – I think you will see that I have touched on that in my post – albeit in a cursory way. The book you referred to sounds very interesting.

12. TL:DR
    Call since it’s hard for villain to have a Flush that he hasn’t raised before the River.

    For those stating villain has a bunch of AcX hands, which of those hands is he open limping? I know that we don’t have any stats but A10s+ I’d expect a raise although maybe he shouldn’t be since that just really folds out weaker Ax hands.

    I think we can rule out 2p hands that beat us. He’d have to be open limping AA, AK, KQ for him to have a better 2 pair.

    Also open limping 99-QQ seems out. I’d expect a raise normally.

    22-33 (maybe 44 and 55 also) I’d also expect a pump/dump scenario. (ie. raise/fold)

    So you’re looking at 44-88, 65s, 910s, J10s, maybeeeee J9s. Kx hands that we are chopping with I wouldn’t think villain would be limping or it would have raised I think the turn or flop. (KJ – K2)

    I think it’s a call on the River. Our hand looks a lot like 1 pair, trips, boat hands, quads. (87, 77, 88, 8x, Kx, 7x)

    The Qc is a good scare card for Villain to bluff at as it’s another over card to a 7 and fills in the flush draw. While all the straight draws missed. Our check on the River makes it look like we’re scared of the 4 flush that hit but other then small suited connectors going for thin value on a paired board I don’t think Villain has a whole lot of flushes and many more bluffs in his range.

    I think the only reason to raise would be to try to get Villain to fold a chop which I think is an unlikely hand for Villain to have the way the hand has played out or to fold a low flush which means we’re trying to rep a higher flush with the check raise on the River. Us check raising river Villain is never going to call with 10 high or his busted draws and I think it would be easier for Villain to call with 10c or Jc since our most likely barreling cards were Ac and Qc and now the Qc is out.

    Sorry for the ramble. Hope it make sense….

    • What hands do you expect him to bluff with?

      • TL;DR:
        22-AA no club
        J9 no club
        910 no club
        56 no club
        7x no club
        22-99 with a club

        I was thinking about this more and I think my view of this hand is very skewed. The reason for that is I played 2 similar situations in a small home game.

        The first one I called the river on a 4 flush board with 2 pair after I thought that any spade that Villain would have called with came out on the board. Villain was SB and A, K, Q were out on the board.

        The second hand (cash game) was when we had 4 players to the flop in a double straddled pot. SB, BB, UTG and Hero(108o, gogo straddle! :)). Rag flop Ks37 rainbow, turn puts out 9s and two to a flush. SB checks, BB checks, UTG bets, I call with the intention of betting any of the straights or Spades, SB folds, BB folds.

        River As UTG leads for half the pot and I raise him. He thinks it over for 3 or 4 minutes and then folds 39o. He was the other straddle.

        So I’ve been sort of blending these hands together even though the situations are completely different. Something that I didn’t consider is that he might be bluffing with the best hand. He might be bluffing with a small pocket pair with a Club.

        I’d expect him to bluff all his pocket pairs with out a club and any of his missed straight draws. Because even though his pocket pairs with no club have marginal showdown value in reality I don’t think they have any showdown value after we’ve bet 2 streets and there are 2 overcards and 4 to a flush on the board. He has to realize that none of his hands are going to win. Even if we have a 2c he loses with AA(even though I still don’t think he has AA).

        So I’d expect him to bluff with:

        22-AA with no club
        910 with no club
        56 no club
        7x no club
        22-99 with a club

        With the possibility of Villain bluffing small PP’s with a Club maybe it would be best to raise. My only problem with raising is that he’s not calling with any hand with out a club or his busted draws. I wish I had the time to work the numbers to see if it’s better to raise, call or fold but like I said I think my perception of the hand is skewed by recent hands that I played.

        • “My only problem with raising is that he’s not calling with any hand with out a club or his busted draws.” I don’t follow why this is a problem…

13. first instinct is to fold… but i’ve learned to consider all my options before i answer your WYP’s… call doesn’t make sense so i’m guessing there must be some merit to some sort of raise… so i guess, villian did not play his hand like a set, and therefore most likely does not have a full house… hero’s line could be a set protecting against the flush draw… especially the check raise on the river…

    so my answer, after thinking it through, is to check raise to $80 or so… keep in mind, i have never done this to my recollection!

14. I’m not being purposely snarky, but this hand bears (at least to me) a minor resemblance to the one described in a April 12, 2011 post (https://www.thinkingpoker.net/2011/04/bluffing-with-two-pair/).

    Then you noted, “On a [four flush] river, two pair is actually one of the worst hands I’ll ever have. There’s a chance I’ll check it down and win against [Villain hand], but Villain will probably bet his bluffs, and I can’t call.”

    Given the line taken, the above strategy seems like an appropriate approach here as well.

    • Yes, it has some resemblance in that there is a 4 flush on the river and Hero is out of position. But the game flow is different and the villain is certainly a different animal. Hero’s two pair is much stronger which probably isn’t of any relevance since he turned it into a bluff – the main point is that Hero can credibly represent a flush and wants to bluff before villain can bluff, because Hero can’t call a bluff. In the 4 flush on river hand I just don’t think the villain is bluffing, and Hero checked the river and now has difficulty bluffing because of SPR even if he wanted.

15. This may sound obvious, but your hand is only a bluff catcher on the river.
    So if you think he is bluffing (betting a scare card when you check), catch it.
    Otherwise, fold.
    You cant beat anything that would value bet.

    • Agree that we don’t beat anything that’s value betting. Do you think he’s bluffing? Do you see any merit to bluff raising?

16. I don’t seem to always be able to effectively transfer my thoughts to these comments, however, I mostly agree with Kelley, your hand is effectively a bluff-catcher at this point. However, even as a bluff-catcher it’s extremely weak. I think that with 4 players in the pot on the flop, all of them got out to your flop-bet except this guy. So he either hit something like a set or 2 pair and was calling to keep the pot small or he has a decent club-draw(or any club draw), or the small possibility he hopes you slow down and he can try to rep a flush at some point. Turn fills up the most likely 2-pair scenario’s(7-8,K-8), along with sets or quads and the river puts out the flush if that’s what he was going for. You probably don’t check the river with the Ac, so any hand combinations that might call the flop with a J,10,9c could probably feel comfortable betting the river for value. Any boats would bet the river hoping you flushed. So I’m not really sure what villian would call you down the whole way with that didn’t hit in some way on the river. The question for me then becomes, can you rep a better flush or boat and raise him off? I think he only calls with boats and flushes, so you’ll probably beat the naked 8s he “might” bet on the river, but I’m not sure he’ll fold to a raise with anything else except complete air, which I don’t think he’ll have much of the time. I think this kind of hand is one of my big leaks, however, I’ll try to overthink it and look for reasons to make a hero-call. I’m very interested to read your analysis/reasoning, Andrew.

    • Thanks for the comment, Fred. For what it’s worth, I seriously doubt that “this kind of hand is one of my big leaks”.

17. Left a post at cardplayer … but you can call here to ‘pay’ for information since you are so early in the session. Is it a wise ‘investment’, not sure but at least you send a message that you are willing to call OR you can tell him you were just fishing for information to let him think you will not make a call against a similar be in the future when you can check-raise him. As the hand stands alone, fold is probably best, but poker is a long haul result and the only thing that hurts you here is if he cash-and-dashes you and you never see him again.

    Raising is an option, but then he gets to see your cards first and if you did catch a bluff, you wont know what it was. At least here you will see his cards for sure with a call.

    • Keep in mind this is ZOOM poker, so even if it is early in the session, I’m not going to see this guy regularly.

      Setting that aside, though, can you give some examples of what information you’d gain from calling and how it would help you? For instance, suppose you called and he had As 4d. What note would you make on him as a result?

      • Missed the Zoom part of it … FOLD and move on 85%, raise 15% since his bet screams value and could be a touch cautious if we give him credit for recognizing a paired board. In this case here with A4 holdings, we are not offered as much information as I would like to find out … how low of a club is he willing to go with perhaps? What we do take in is that he knows the value of his Ace, being an overcard with nut flush draw … and based on the pure odds he made 2 correct calls if he assumes his Ace is good against any non 8-X hand, putting a made flush to the side. This would allow us to crank up the Turn bet (perhaps Flop bet also, but pot is pot at 1-2) to see how far up the ladder he is willing to go when drawing. If we can learn how to still price him into pots and gain more value, then we can get our money back and more later. We already (kinda) knew he was passive … if he re-raises most of these Turn bets he can take down the pot from behind, especially with the Ace to back up any calls he gets, but the passive approach prevents the 3-bet Turn which forces him to decide how big his Ace is before he sees the River card. In this case here all we find out with A4 is that he played this hand ABC and hit the 25% River and was cautious with his value bet into a paired board. A player turning over 9xJc would provide more intriguing information for future use.

        As I indicated earlier, since we are calling we also don’t have to show and then we can spin our tune verbally anyway we want to (show the King and say you had the Qc perhaps)while showing this player that we are willing to call down such a thin value bet. The same scenario in the future could be used to raise the value bet on the River with our without a hand. The Zoom factor here really kills any benefits that would be ‘gained’ in a ring game. Increase the Turn bet to at least 75% pot or more to tip the scale in your favor the 75% of the time you are supposed to win here.

18. I would probably let this one go without some reads or history suggesting he is capable of bluffing the scare card (and capable of turning a made hand into a bluff).
    Also, I would only bluff raise if he has been making thin value bets, and is capable of bet/folding in such spots.
    I don’t think we have enough information as presented to make either determination.
    I fold.

Comments are closed.