What’s Your Play? Cold 4-Bet in Berlin Results

Well, I’m late and doing a half-assed job on top of it. Guess I’m really adapting to life in Europe! But seriously, sorry I’m so late in posting results for the EPT Berlin Wha’ts Your Play? There are just so many better things to do here in Berlin besides blogging! In the interest of finally getting this out, I’m going to be less thorough than usual in seeking out good comments to quote. I have tried to respond to many of the comments as they came in, so hopefully that’s some consolation. As always, I do read and appreciate every comment!

Villain 1

I’m going to start by talking about how I fare against each Villain, both now (ie after they make their respective raises) and if I continue putting more money into the pot.

Everything we know about Villain 1 suggests that he isn’t bluffing. He seems like a straight-forward player who wants to win the pot when he has the best hand. That doesn’t mean we’re behind, as especially with this small sizing he could be 3-betting hands like AQ, AJ, TT, and JJ, but it does mean that he’s not bluffing.

I take his staring at V2 to be a sign of weakness. This isn’t a Caro-style “strong means weak” tell – it’s not that kind of stare. But he does seem to be intently looking for information, meaning that he’s going to have a decision to make if I fold. That suggests that he doesn’t have KK/AA, with which he presumably wouldn’t care about trying to figure out what V2 had and might even be doing a “weak means strong” looking away. This is far from an ironclad read, but I’m slightly discounting KK/AA from his range.

That means I’m ahead of him now. I don’t think he’s going to stack off with worse hands if I continue to put money into the pot, though. If I’m willing to call or re-raise V2’s 4-bet, that’s going to set off alarm bells. I don’t see V1 stacking off pre-flop with JJ or even AK to me in that scenario, so although I expect to be ahead now, that doesn’t mean that I want to get all-in pre-flop against him.

Villain 2

Cold 4-betting 25% of his stack into a re-raise from a guy like V1 is a strong move. He may have relatively aggressive standards for stacking off to V1, but I do think he intends to call a shove from him almost always. Generously, I could give him a range of {TT+,AQs+,AKo}. I’m a slight favorite against that range, though he may well fold the bottom of it to a 5-bet from me even if he would have stacked off to V1. Still, I have 40% equity against {QQ+,AKs,AKo}, enough to get all-in against V2 considering all the money already in the pot if I could be assured of V1 folding.

Cold-Calling

This is my least favorite option. I always say that if you’re going to show strength, you might as well raise and make your opponents pay for the information you’re giving them. No matter how I do it, putting more money into the pot is going to look strong. Calling more or less turns my hand face-up while giving my opponents the chance to see the flop free or cheaply, in position, and then outflop and/or outplay me.

The only possible upside to this play, which I did not consider at the time but which Gareth’s comment brought to my attention, would be if V1 were the sort of guy who simply couldn’t let go of top pair after the flop. In that case, even if he’d be disciplined enough to fold JJ pre-flop, he might still stack off with AJ on a J-high flop.

Without knowing that for sure, though, I don’t think I’d comfortable getting all-in post-flop unimproved. Consequently, I don’t like cold-calling.

Re-Raising

If I’m going to continue with the hand, I think this is the way to do it. Based on what I’ve said about each villain’s ranges, my best case scenarios would be either to win it pre-flop or push V1 out and get all-in against V2. Re-raising is the best way to accomplish either of those objectives.

As for sizing, I don’t think there’s any reason to raise more than the minimum. Any raise looks very strong here and could represent AA as easily as QQ, since it’s clear that I’ll never be folding versus V2 no matter how small my raise. A minimum raise is a great use of leverage, since it forces V1 to make a decision about his hand with the very real threat of V2 shoving and re-opening the betting for me.

I expect V1 to fold often, but if he doesn’t, then I’d have to put him on a better hand than QQ. I’d look to fold unless he gave me the opportunity to set-mine against him.

Min-5-betting planning to fold to V1 but get it in against V2 is my preferred play here. It’s a little thin, but if I’m right about both V1 not showing up KK/AA all that often and V2 stacking off with AK, then it’s profitable. Losing costs me 1/3 of my stack which, though unfortunate, would not be a devastating, survival-threatening loss. In other words, I don’t think survival considerations need to come into play here.

Also, I don’t think it’s the most absurd thing in the world to think that V1 might actually fold KK. I wouldn’t bet on it, but I wouldn’t be shocked, either. Guys like this do like to make hero folds when deep-stacked in big buy-in events.

Folding

This is a close second to the small 5-bet. Without the shadow of a read with regard to V1 not having KK/AA, it would be the best play. If we had reason to think V2 was more weighted towards those same hands, it would be the best play. With the information available, I think it’s slightly less good than 5-betting, though it is what I ended up doing in the moment.

Results

I folded. V1 folded without much thought, though I took my time so he may simply have done his thinking then. In other words, his decision wasn’t necessarily a trivial one. Sorry for the anti-climactic outcome, but I never saw anyone’s hand!