What’s Your Play? WSOP Main Event Turn Results

Thanks to everyone who commented on Part Two of this special street-by-street “What’s Your Play?” Like it or not, Hero checked the flop, and now we’re faced with a small bet on a turn card that makes a lot of straights and flushes possible. Because of that, JeanNoel asks, “I am wondering if hero’s big hand on the flop turns into a bluff catcher on the turn?”

It does not. Although quite a few hands are theoretically ahead of Hero’s, this set is very strong nonetheless. No one in the hand, including our Hero, has taken any action to suggest he has much of anything. Consequently, all players can value all holdings more highly than they ordinarily would on a board of this texture. Bottom set may not seem like much with so many straights and flushes possible, but here it is damn near the nuts. Hero should play it as such unless and until an opponent takes some action that drastically contradicts that assumption.

UTG’s flop check and small turn bet strongly discount anything better in his range. Much the same is true with BB’s turn check. He may have checked a strong hand to the pre-flop raiser on the flop, but once the flop checks through, I’d expect him to start building a pot rather than hope that someone else would bet. If he cold 3-bets the turn, my opinion would change and I’d either fold or call planning to fold the river unimproved, but I don’t see that happening very often at all.

As usual, Gareth sums it up nicely:

we have the best hand the vast majority of the time. We can get value by raising and we want to get that value. (Most of the time) Villain’s bet size betrays the strength of his hand and his desire to see the river for cheap. He is unlikely to have a slow played set or a value hand. BB’s range is very capped as he has no expectation that anyone will bet the turn. So we have a set versus a range that wants to see another card… let’s raise for value! Also, he bet 25 into 72, let’s not let his small bet size “anchor” our raise size. Let’s raise as big as we think he will call with his AsKx type hands. 95k at least. 106k says I!

Dealing With a Reraise

Trentbridge worries that, “if you RAISE and either he or the BB has the made flush/straight or the higher set, and RERAISES, you’d be facing a difficult decision.” This isn’t a huge concern for me for two reasons:

1. It’s extremely unlikely. As I argued above, neither Villain has done anything to suggest he has a better hand than 22 and in fact both have taken actions that suggest they do not have such hands. I also don’t expect either player to 3-bet a worse hand, neither as a bluff nor because he mistakenly thinks he has the best hand. As Jonny says, “whatever we decide to do to a 3bet from either player I don’t think the probability of getting 3bet is large enough to affect our initial decision.”

2. Because I don’t expect bluffs, it’s not a difficult decision. If I’m re-raised, it means someone has a flush or mayyybe a straight. I’m not even worried about better sets 3-betting. That means the decision won’t be difficult at all. If I’m getting odds to draw at a full house I can call; otherwise I’ll have to fold. It’s unfortunate to have to fold away 18% equity, but again, that’s not a terrible worst-case scenario considering how rarely I expect it to come up.

The bottom line here is that we don’t have to be 100% sure we have the best hand to raise. The risk of having to fold to a 3-bet means that raising into a better hand costs more than just the amount of the raise. Nevertheless, in this case I’m way more confident than I need to be to warrant raising, both to get called by worse and to protect my equity in the pot against a bluff with a random spade.

Getting Called By Worse

Raising does serve to protect Hero’s equity in the pot against weak straight or flush draws that will fold, but that’s not my main reason for raising. I believe worse hands, including both draws with non-trivial equity and pairs that are drawing dead or nearly dead, will call. There are two reasons why:

1. Hero’s hand is underrepresented. Given that we checked the flop, our opponents may be less likely to give us credit for a big hand. Because these players seem to be on the weak/straightforward side, they are both less likely to be concealing their own strength in the same way and more likely to express their suspicion by calling light rather than by re-raising light.

2. Certain draws, most notably the As, will call without much concern for what Hero may have. Moreover, our opponents are likely to overestimate how much equity such a draw has, because Hero’s hand is underrepresented. In other words, a player holding As Kd may assume that he has 15 outs (3 Aces, 3 Kings, and 9 spades) when in fact he has 7 outs (spades that do not pair the board). This can result in mistaken calls.

Edit: I failed to count Villain’s outs to a straight, of which he has 3, the 5s having been counted already as a flush out. The above ought to read that he will mistakenly assume he has 18 outs when he actually has 10. Though this doesn’t change my central point that Villain may miscount his outs, it is an embarrassing mistake to make – thanks to Georgios_N for pointing it out.

Even if you aren’t on board with my argument that UTG’s flop check heavily discounts flushes from his turn range, you should still recognize that combinatorically he is much more likely to hold a flush draw than a flush. Suppose that he would play both AKo and AKs the same way, by checking the flop. He will be dealt AKo three times as often as AKs. Thus, for the one combo of As Ks in his range, there are three combos of As Kx and three combos of Ax Ks. It still makes sense to raise, even if he could have a flush, simply because there are so many more ways for him to call with draws we are crushing.

Results

I raised to 90K, though I now agree with many of the commenters that a slightly larger raise, perhaps as much as 106K, would be better. The key is to raise as much as those second-best hands would call. For whatever reason, in the moment, 90K felt right. The BB folded, and UTG called. I realize it’s potentially important information, but I’m afraid I don’t remember how quickly he called or in what manner.

The river was the 3d. UTG bet 100K into the 250K pot, leaving about 250K behind. Hero has him slightly covered. What’s your play and why? (Again posting this now for those who want to get a jump-start on considering it. I’ll do a proper WYP post on Monday.)