Thanks to everyone who commented on Part One of this street-by-street “What’s Your Play?” series. Even if you didn’t, please check out the results of the flop action and feel free to chime in with your opinion on how to play the turn.
To my surprise, responses to this week’s hand were more unanimous than they’ve ever been, and you all wanted to do something other than what I did. I must say, though, that I’m not convinced. I chose to check, and I still believe that’s the best play.
What’s the Value Target?
JeanNoel asks the right question when he says, “What kind of hands will lose a big pot against a set ? I think that if hero doesn’t improve on the river, he will be happy to be called by an overpair, 2 pairs or top pair top kicker. It doesn’t reprent a lot of hands since the board is 7s 4s 2d.”
This is the crux of the problem: both the board and the action so far make it unlikely that anyone has the sort of hand we’d really like him to have, which is two-pair or one strong pair. UTG’s check almost certainly represents weakness – you just don’t see such players randomly checking vulnerable made hands after raising pre-flop, especially not in multi-way pots. In all likelihood he has unpaired overcards, and probably not a good draw, which I’d also expect him to bet. If we were heads up with UTG, I hope that a lot more people would advocate checking.
Granted, BB’s range is much wider, and his check doesn’t tell as much since he may well check anything to the pre-flop raiser. He didn’t re-raise pre-flop, though, so at least half of the overpairs to this board are not in his range. Even if he paired the 7, he probably doesn’t feel like he has a monster hand, so it’s not a disaster if we fail to build the pot immediately. We’re a little more likely to get action now than later, but once the flop checks through there’s a good chance he’ll put at least one bet into the pot later, even on relatively scary turns. Particularly bad turn cards like an A might scare him away, but those are the cards most likely to improve UTG, so it’s kind of a win/win scenario for Hero.
ZOMG He Can Haz Draws!
What if BB has a draw? We’d rather bet, but checking isn’t a disaster, especially since such draws will be a small part of his range (if he plays 9s 8s pre-flop, then he also plays 9d 8d, 9h 8h, and 9c 8c, meaning that there are three combos of airballs for virtually every flush draw combo he could have). If the draw misses on the turn, he may well semi-bluff with it, enabling us to raise and get two bets into the pot despite the flop check. If the draw gets there, Hero still has position and a redraw, so we’re not likely to make any big mistakes.
Shawn and others worry that “the board could get very scary fairly fast and that would freeze up the action”, but I’m not so sure. I would actually argue that many of the cards pointed to as action-killing cards, such as spades or Aces, will actually generate more action than they’ll kill. UTG is much more likely, at this point, to have AK or AQ than KK or QQ, so an A is a great card for getting action from him.
Even with spades, there are a lot more ways for a third spade to give someone a draw than to complete one. Hands like Ks Qd that were planning to check-fold the flop will be willing to give action on a spade turn. Although there are some turn cards that decrease the likelihood of Hero being ahead, I think the much more likely scenario is Hero getting additional action when he has an extremely strong hand. With two presumably straighforward players in the pot with us, two folds is the overwhelmingly likely outcome if we bet now.
It’s a Good Spot to Bluff…
Ian and answer20 both argue that this is a good spot to bluff and that Hero should be “betting pretty much any two cards” here. I agree and would bet airballs quite frequently. Against better players capable of recognizing that and doing something about it (i.e. check-raise bluffing or calling extremely light), I’d be much more inclined to bet.
However, such players are the exception and not the rule. We have no reason to think that either of these players is capable of such moves, even if they suspect a bluff. That is, after all, what makes it such a good bluffing spot. As George3 says, “How are you going to get a check raise here? If the original raiser has an over pair he is betting the flop, not checking. And the BB is certainly not going to check raise with middle or bottom pair.” I’d still bet more vulnerable hands like 99 here, but with something as resilient as a set, I think slowplaying is the superior option.
If I were to bet, it would be small, something like 1/3 pot. That’s the same size I would use with my bluffs/protection bets and also the size most likely to induce a check-raise bluff or crying call from overcards that checked planning to fold. Those are the two types of hands most likely to be influenced by the size of our bet. Again, I just don’t see such moves coming from these players, certainly not often enough to make up for the lost value I predict from slowplaying.
Results
I checked behind, and horror of horrors, the turn was the 3s! BB checked, and UTG bet 25,000. I’ll do a proper WYP post on Monday, but for those of you who want to get a jumpstart on the conversation… what’s your play and why?