Edit: Hero holds Qh Th. Thanks to Georgios for pointing that rather significant omission!
This is a key hand from the final table of a tournament a friend recently won. It was a $125 freezeout at Aria. Hero is in his late 20’s and has been playing aggressively and well – you can read the trip report linked above if you want a better idea of what exactly his table image might be.
Blinds are 3K/6K/1K, and four players remain in the tournament. I don’t know the exact payout structure, but it’s not particularly top heavy.
The SB is an older gentleman with 110K who is exceedingly tight and cautious. Hero is in the BB with 265K. The CO is a very tight 22-year old with 150K. The BTN is the chipleader with 320K.
Hero and Button have been running over the other two over. The BTN seems generally to be on the reckless side of loose-aggressive. He opens tons of pots and hates to fold. He ran up a huge stack by getting slapped with the deck (he’s shown down Aces four times already at the final table) but has since given away nearly half of that with some questionable calls, including raise-calling 53s against a 110K shove getting nowhere near the appropriate odds.
In this hand, the CO folds, and the BTN opens to 20K. SB folds, and Hero raises to 55K. BTN calls. My friend and I have since discussed this 3-bet and determined that it’s not a good idea, so no need to spend a lot of time in your comments pointing that out. Playing a big pot with the chipleader, especially when the other two are playing so badly, is a huge mistake.
The flop comes KT4 rainbow, without Hero’s suit. There’s 122K in the pot and 210K in Hero’s stack. Now that you’re in this spot, what’s your play?
Please use the Comments section to discuss how you think Hero should proceed. I’ll be back with results and my own thoughts on Friday.
You forgot to write hero’s hand or we must make a plan for a range of hands?
Given that the chip leader is a reckless LAG, our hand is good the vast majority of the time. I’d probably check/call all 3 streets and let him try to bluff. I think the likelihood of getting money from him is greater going that route than c-betting and hoping he calls with a smaller pair, or valuetowning ourselves if he caught the king.
Another variation if he *really* hates to fold (i.e. floats a lot) might be c-bet the flop for value, then check/call turn and river to rep a whiff and to induce bluffs.
I doubt bet/bet/bet is good–I doubt he calls a 3-bet and all 3 streets with a small pair.
Either way, we may be getting our stack in on this one, but that’s our fault for 3-betting preflop. 🙂
i’d lead like 53k. you have a blocker to the only real draw, and you’re opponent will likely respect the cbet since there are a lot of kings in your range at this point (the primary alternative, check-calling, is too passive and lets him control the hand).
if he calls the c-bet, i would then check-fold most turns. exceptions – if the turn is a q or 10, jam the turn. if the turn is a j, i don’t know if there’s a good option, probably going to check-call small bets but check-fold to larger bets for icm reasons.
Button has a very wide range, hates to fold, and has given away 1/2 of a monster stack already making spewy calls, so obviously we are way ahead of his range here. I am going to severely discount QQ+ and AK, and partially discount JJ expecting a shove over our 3-bet preflop. I am going to give him something very wide – any pair, any ace, any paint, suited connectors and gappers, and probably some Paint-rag combos as well.. (he did call off 100K with 5s3s to a 3-bet already!) So we are waaaay ahead of his range, and realistically only losing to 44, TT, JJ, AT, and Kx which make up a pretty small potion of his hands.
Given that I think I’m going to lead about 65K and fold to a shove – I don’t think even this player is going to bluff raise us in this spot. We stand to get called by hands we are ahead of like Tx, QJ, possibly gut shots with AQ and AJ, and maybe even lesser hands such as smaller PPs and 4x (although the bottom of this range is less likely), as well as the bottom of the range of hands that beat us – AT, JJ, maybe even his weakest kings. If he calls my default is to shove the turn barring a read of strength. I expect his flop calling range to narrow a fair bit on the turn with this show of strength and we might even elicit a fold of AT or JJ as well as fold out his draws, and at this point I’m happy to take it down. An A coming on the turn might convince me to check and fold to a show of strength, as would any physcial reads of strength with his flop call, but otherwise I’m shoving the turn.
I think its c/c flop and c/c ai almost every turn card. The only turns we can even consider folding on are 9x, Ax, and Jx. I would think we can c/c on these cards some amount of the time though.
I like a c/c here. Especially vs a spewy LA. I discount most K’s from villains range. Ak and KQ prob get 4b by this player pf.
The card we fear most is the ace…although he is probably 4betting those pf as well. Most broadways will help our hand.
The key is our showdown value….perfect spot to play as a bluff catcher.
If we check is villain(button) not super likely to bet flop??? I think so.
I absolutely hate check call the flop because what the heck do we do on the turn/river with like no fold equity left. Plus basically any card can make villains hand.
Against most players I like bet 75k (represent a k/qq/jj/aa/10’s hand)and fold to a shove(Basically give up if he just calls the 75k if unimproved).
Against this manic Villain I think check-shove flop might be best.
It’s super high variance but you are good often and he bluffs often enough and you can represent a big hand he might just fold, I think in the long run you come out ahead.
To be honest though I would never 3bet q10hh in BB because it creates such a tough spot on the flop. I am just not sure I would have courage or smarts to play q10 profitably.
p.s. Should hero fold or call Q10HH?
Are you saying you’re trying to get Villain to fold a better hand?
Assuming villain plays top 20% hands you are good like 55% of the time, more really when you discount the top of his range aa,kk,ak,qq,kq,10’s…etc so in theory anyways you are good quite often plus check shoving represents a huge hand. plus the smaller villain bets you could guess the more likely he has some hand which has the benefit of giving you more fold equity when he has say a10. I don’t think the point is to get Villain to fold a “better hand” but it does give you a chance (yes small chance I agree) of villain folding hands like k7,qq,jj,a10,qj. I am not saying it is super likely but just a bonus. Plus its tough to imagine you not having at least 20% equity no matter what villain has. Sure in reality if he has a K you are screwed by check raising but it is more likely then not he doesn’t have one. Plus you said the tourney isn’t super top heavy which added to my reasoning. Like I said ingame I probably just bet 75k and fold to a shove but check-shoving to me has tons of merit. Plus it seems to me if you play the hand any otherway Villain is likely to put you to the test at some point and I wouldn’t have a clue what to do.
As you’ll see I like check-raising. I just don’t get “check shoving represents a huge hand.” I really think it’s optimistic that he’d bet-fold anything better than QT, in which case there’s no value to repping a huge hand.
Maybe the idea is check-raising usually represents draws (or 2 pair I guess) but there are no draws here (I don’t think V. thinks Hero re-raises BB with qj preflop) so what can Villain put Hero on that he is risking his tourney life with vs. the chipleader…Hero either has air (gutshot/low pair) or aa,kk,ak,kq,kj,k10,10s…etc…I don’t Villain thinks Hero would c-r with air.
I also think that maybe since you play good players all the time they are more likely to “slowplay”(not in the purest sense since stacks are so small) the hands just mentioned but I don’t think amateurs think like that (except maybe with kkk) and are happy to take the pot down on the flop with ak (being afraid of scare cards for tourney life).
I also think people under-estimated the fact or concern of what does Hero do with anycard above a 7? any of which can easily make V. 2 pair or complete a draw or high pair ace. I mean even a k on the turn might be enough to convince V. that Hero is not likely to have a third K causing V. to call with his QQ.
anyways keep up the goodwork 🙂
It would help to know how he played those aces before, but I would expect a 4-bet with JJ+ or AKs/o most of the time. We are way ahead of his range. I’ll ask myself if he is more likely to call with a worse hand or bet with a worse hand. The way this player is described I’ll usually assume he’s betting, so my line is c/c. I’ll continue c/c on the next two streets unless the board changes dramatically, like the turn and river comes QJ. If he makes an usually large bet size (for him) or his demeanor changes I’ll re-evaluate, probably folding. If he checks behind I’ll lead out on the turn about 1/3 pot, hoping he’ll call with something like 54 or hoping the turn improves him be still worse.
Hero 3-bet preflop vs chip leader with a big (2nd) stack to. This is a strong move. Then flop came KT4r, a flop that hit a 3-bet range well and there arn’t many draws (QJ and gutshot if villain call with AK,AQ or AJ). So a bet from Hero would be another strong move. It looks like Hero hand be ahead of villain’s range but… The problem is that Hero’s hand is at the bottom of value range. Too good to fold and not so good to go all-in speciallyn vs chipleader…
Thinking all of these i prefer a leverage c-bet about 50-60k… A bet that looks like Hero is comitted… Two strong moves: 3-bet preflop and comitted c-bet… After these moves if villain, even a reckless LAG, decide to go all-in (or just call which is the same) vs. a stack that can hurt him it’ s a sign that hero’ hand isn’t good and have to fold.
The other option to check-call doesn’t look good to me because i don’t think he try any bluff cause stacks arn’t big enough and the board isn’t good for this. So he’ll take the free card or value bet better hands…
People are saying that we are really far ahead of his range then sort of talk about betting to take down the pot or bluff him off 10% equity. We are in a potentially disastrous ICM situation. Obv 3 betting led us down this path but bet betting ensures the disaster. Betting and getting called leaves us more lost than check calling to induce. The best part about check calling is he can check back and we can potentially avert committing ICM suicide. Hero is going to have a better idea about villains ability to bluff twice when checked to in this spot. If he is likely to tool out we should definitely check. In any case checking first keeps his range as wide as possible.
Gareth, I’m not convinced we are more lost by betting than checking. If we bet what range do you think the villain raises with? With what range do you think he calls? Folds? What rough % of his overall range do you give each of the above? Is he necessarily going to spaz just because we check? To the extent that we can make reasonable assumptions about the above we can act accordingly.
As for him sapzzing if we check the flop; we do have some info that he “doesn’t like to fold,” and have seen some examples in which he has spewed pre-flop with a garbage hand. This doesn’t necessarily mean he is going to do the same post flop after our show of strength pre just because we check to him. But he is not necessarily going to be fold a hand like Tx either…
I also think his range is capped such that the big pairs and AK are out, and I’d like to see how you would further define his range based on various actions to our potential flop bet.
I think the over all problem is Villain seems to want to gamble. He’s agro spewy and calling all in’s for 110k with 53s.
I could see a three street bluff from Villain. The other thing is we’re not sure if he’s going to turn Kx (K2 – K8) hands into bluffs. As noted Villain hates to fold. I can’t install Stove on my new computer so I’m not sure what our equity is vs a Villains range of Ax, Kx QJo, Tx, 4x hands.
We’d be working off the assumption that he’s not going to float us with pure air in position and that he’s going to pretty much call down with most of his holdings.
A couple of things work in our favor is that we’re the aggressor in the hand. We could easily be betting a good K. We also could cripple the chip leader as we have about 75% of his stack.
If we bet 50% of the pot and he raises I think we can fold. If he calls I think you should shove any non-A, non-9. Even though Villain is agro spewy and doesn’t want to fold most of the time I don’t think he’ll call off 75% of his stack with a bad K, 4 or A high. So we can narrow his calling range down to worse 10x, K8s+ hands and straight draws. If he had a good King I think we would have seen a 4b or reraise on the flop even though it’s pretty dry.
I feel that we should bet 60k on the flop and jam the turn with any non-straight cards. I feel if he raises our lead on the flop that we should fold because I don’t believe he would push all in with a worse hand after our 3b lead on a K high flop.
My initial thought is that I don’t like this spot at all.
I still have 215K in chips and cover the other two players, so I don’t mind giving up in this spot. So my gut response is to check and give up.
To look at it more objectively, I’d have to determine what range of hands he would call a 3 bet in position (and not re-raise or fold). I’m not really sure, but maybe 88-JJ, A9-AJ, KT+, QJ, and JT? So it seems like we are about even against his assumed range. Given how aggressive he is, my guess is he’s going to get it in with any of the hands he hits or semi-hits, and I’m probably only about 30 to 35% against that reduced range.
So given that analysis and I’m OOP my conclusion is still to check and give up.
I guess if it gets checked down to the river I might call a bet by him, depending on the board, but I doubt it gets to that.
You’re giving him way too much credit. This is a guy who called a shove with 53s for no apparent reason. Hero told me he put Villain on any two, which seems a little extreme to me, but at same time your range seems way too tight.
For people against checking… We can always value bet our T later in the hand. I don’t think we should ever think we should try to get a better hand to fold. We presumably have great equity on this flop
V his preflop calling range and if we check we ensure he has that whole range. If we bet we probably have to bet fold, if he calls we probably can’t shove the turn for value. We really want to realize that equity v his range that we flopped and get to showdown. Given the other stacks and us being oop any further money that goes into this pot is against our interests in general.
Generally, there have been a couple of lines advocated thus far: c-bet/fold to raise; c-bet/call jam non-threatening turn; check-call flop and check-fold The following is my analysis on each.
C-Bet Fold To Raise: I think this is the best option given the range of hands our opp is likely to have, given with the strength of our 3-bet pre. Given the play preflop, a lot of hands in our range would hit this board or have it beat: KK, AA, AK, KQs, KJs. Our opponent’s range does not have that many kings in it given the opp’s aggressive tendencies, AK is highly discounted or entirely out of his range, most likely the latter. KQ, KJ, K10 and K9s. There are 56 combos of these kings. I think any other king he is likely to fold to the 3bet. AA, KK, QQ, even JJ (4-handed) are unlikely. One combo of 1010, so, again, unlikely. There are a number of aces I could see him calling with that have been mentioned: AJ, A10, I can also see him calling a number of suited aces AXs (9,8,7,6,5) just to see a flop. Then there are a lot of suited connector hands that are in his range. Anywhere from the QJ down to 76, the lower part of it is when he’d be taking a shot thinking you have a monster (>QQ).
With the repped range and the BTNs range, we are likely ahead. Betting has the advantage of having him pay off with worse or taking down the pot on the flop. I agree with what another poster said that there have been two strong moves taken if the 3-bet is followed up by a c-bet. I think this will further help define the hand, if he jams it’s easier to get away since most of the time he’ll have a very strong hand.
C-Bet/Call Jam Non-Threatening Turn: I like this line as well if the villian decides to call a 1/2 pot bet on flop. First, I don’t think his call on the flop necessarily indicates strength. He’ll likely fold out many hands that are complete air, some small PP. This leaves Kx hands, connector hands and, perhaps, a few pocket pairs. A good percentage of the time this will take down the pot when the turn is a blank. The hands that you are behind, the king hands, are going the jam a certain % of the time, so while you may jam and get snapped called, the connectors/PPs/AJo represented a larger percentage of the hands that he can call with on the flop. One final thing to add is the chip stack sizes: given that the sizes are so big in relation to the other players left there is a tendency not to want to tangle, i.e. first aggressor is usually the victor. With all that being said, I think this play is a good one.
Check-call: This allows BTN to get to three streets cheaply without us ever defining the hand. Flop: Check, bet, call. Turn: check, check. River: ??? The Q10 is not a great hand to begin with on the flop but it is likely to be the best hand, check-calling is likely to get us to the river, never further defining the BTNs range at that point. There are a lot of situations (tough spots) where hero will be guessing (wrongly) as to what BTN is betting with on the river if he bets. I like this line much much more if we have a king. There is a lot of deception value by checking a 3-bet pot. He may very well put us on QQ or JJ and try to rep the king.
Check-fold has merit as it pertains to the tournament structure. I think this echoes my earlier statement about the inherent trepidation of two chip leaders going at it late in a tournament. First to blink loses. Having said that, there is a lot of equity to having middle pair decent kicker against this villian. Check-fold is weak and can cost in the long run of playing tourneys.
I like the post and hope to hear more.
Why do you say he would only jam over a flop bet with a very strong hand? We’ve seen him do some pretty suicidal stuff before, and you already explained why it’s difficult for him to have a very strong hand on this flop.
Also if you didn’t notice results for this hand have been posted. You’re still welcome to post comments, of course, but based on your last sentence I wasn’t sure you realized that.
Thanks for reading and commenting!
Foucalt,
I said that most of the time, he’ll have a strong hand. He could, of course, do this with air/weak hand.
I did not notice the results for this hand.