This week’s “What’s Your Play?” is a little different, in that it’s the second in a series of three posts about the same hand. Rather than asking you to discuss a plan for the entire hand, I’m going to give you the action through the turn and then ask for your thoughts. Of course you may still choose to speak broadly about how possible future action influences your turn decision, but you won’t need to consider every possible river scenario, because next week we’ll find out what exactly happens and discuss that particular situation in-depth. Make sense? Here we go!
It’s early on Day 5 of the WSOP main event. We’re in the shallow money, with 574 players remaining out of 7319, and Hero’s table draw is a great one for such a late day in the tournament, featuring several pretty weak amateurs. Hero (me, in my late twenties with dark sunglasses and no logos on my clothing) begins the hand with a slightly below average stack of 500K. Blinds are at 4K/8K/1K.
One of the weak players, a guy about my age sitting on a stack of about 450K, raises to 20K in first position. I call with 2c 2h in middle position, and a middle-aged player new to the table and sitting on 600K calls in the big blind. The three of us see a 7s 4s 2d flop, and both of my opponents check relatively quickly.
Despite what virtually every commenter advocated, I checked behind. You can read a discussion of my thought process in Friday’s post. Horror of horrors, the turn was the 3s! BB checked, and UTG bet 25K into the 72K pot. What’s your play and why?
Post your thoughts in the comments section below. I’ll be back with my thoughts, as well as the turn action and the river card (don’t think I’m giving away too much by revealing that Hero does not fold here), on Friday.
I would raise to 75K hoping the Big Blind folds. Then I would watch the original raiser closely to try and get a read off him. If he just calls proceed with caution to the river where he will have to act first. If he raises to 150K or more then that will be another tough decision.
I agree with Jim in that a raise is the right play. I the 75k-100k range seems like the play. This feels like AK/AQ with one spade to me. Especially after everyone checked the flop UTG may feel like a stab here can win the pot and even if called he has two overs plus spade draw. If this is indeed the type of hand he has he is faced with a very tough decision for a lot of chips both here and on the river if we raise(in the absence of a fourth spade). If he has these type of hands we want to make him choose between folding or making an incorrect call. This is where we need to understand the villain. Will he recognize that a non-spade A/K/Q is not an out? We size our bet according to the villain and what he think his thought process might be.
If we get re-popped here I think we have to seriously consider whether villain actually does have 2 spades although I find it unlikely he would not c-bet the flop with a nut flush draw and two overs unless he really is weak/passive enough to check and hope for the check-around to result in a turned flush. Would he have just check-called with the flush draw? This is why I would have bet to help further define his hand and if we win the pot on the flop that’s not a bad result
I think you have to call here and evaluate the river. You showed weakness on the flop and there are a ton of draws he could be betting with here. If he has a str8 or flush we still outs to the full house and possibly double up. Call and evaluate the river is my play here.
But i dont have any logos on my clothes either so I could be wrong
Calling
Pros
– misrepresent our hand by calling, thereby making a possible river raise for value extremely profitable. We would raise/fold if the board didn’t pair presumably. Would be interesting if we called, BB folded, the board paired, he bet river, we raised, and he 3 bet. But in general we will confuse his river bet range so much that we could expect him to bet/call a lot with worse. This isn’t going to be the greatest play though because we certainly don’t have an invulnerable holding versus his river betting range on any non spade non pairing river, so we will value cut ourselves on occasion versus a straight and so forth.
– potentially don’t get coolered by his slowplayed oversets and turned straights (and to a tiny extent the BB’s sets and straights)
– get raised by the BB? Doesn’t seem like too much of a benefit
Cons
– fail to build a pot versus 2nd best hands
– freeroll his bets with 1 spade
– not extracting value from his high spade 2 over holdings
– encourage the BB to overcall with 1 spade hands (hands that we never effectively value bet on the river but have equity versus our hand nonetheless)
Raising
Pros
– can get called by a ton of worse
– also misrepresents our hand and represents a large, or frequent, bluff range. We’ve already successfully misrepresented our hand by checking the flop behind so calling turn to do this further doesn’t seem necessary for the exclusive purpose of ‘misreprentation’.
– builds a larger pot (meaning we win more with our river value bets) versus 2nd best hands, especially those that will play well with the betting lead on the river, as opposed to us having the betting lead (able to check-back a 4th spade, for example)
Cons
– plan versus a turn 3 bet from either player? Seems like there are situations where we won’t be happy about facing a turn 3 bet.
I think the main things are that we have the best hand the vast majority of the time. We can get value by raising and we want to get that value. (Most of the time) Villain’s bet size betrays the strength of his hand and his desire to see the river for cheap. He is unlikely to have a slow played set or a value hand. BB’s range is very capped as he has no expectation that anyone will bet the turn. So we have a set versus a range that wants to see another card… let’s raise for value! Also, he bet 25 into 72, let’s not let his small bet size “anchor” our raise size. Let’s raise as big as we think he will call with his AsKx type hands. 95k at least. 106k says I!
I re-read your last post and I really liked to get your insight which I thought was totally right.
With what you said : “If the draw misses on the turn, he may well semi-bluff with it, enabling us to raise and get two bets into the pot despite the flop check. If the draw gets there, Hero still has position and a redraw, so we’re not likely to make any big mistakes.”
“Even with spades, there are a lot more ways for a third spade to give someone a draw than to complete one. Hands like Ks Qd that were planning to check-fold the flop will be willing to give action on a spade turn.”
What about the past action :
Everybody checked on the flop, so nobody showed any strength.
Nobody got that much more information than what we already had from them before the flop. We just now know that overpairs are really less less likely. Sets and draws are possible though.
What about the turn card :
It’s quite a scary card in general. Which is good because it can be actually scary also for EVERYBODY.
It can induce a bluff from a weak player. +1 for calling
What about his bet size :
Such a small one is polarizing his range : a bait with a monster set or a blocking bet with a new draw.
So, can we imagine that our UTG player is just having AQo-AKo and perhaps A-Jo with such a bet ?
He is weak, will often overvalue overcards like AK-AQ or even AJ. The new card being quite scary, his bet is giving him a chance of earning this pot right now or if called he must be thinking since the weak flop action, he still has many outs : A-K or A-Q and the flush draw also.
You told me you don’t know much about the guy, he is weak but you can’t categorize him into an agressive or passive area… This is the read I miss.
Is he watching you closely ? Is he staring at you agressively ? Is he looking elsewhere ?
I’m more a “live” player and I often “feel” my opponent quite good while looking at him.
If he is trying to get this pot and is agressive enough, I would raise here, I want him to go for a 4-bet with a draw or a bad hand. After all, if he is on the flush it’s around 16% chance win.
If it’s more likely a weak player who would get scared and where a raise would make him fold his bad hands but reraise with his best ones… then a call is the way to go, it can even bring our BB to make a mistake and let us have a chance of making a cheap full house.
What about a small raise ? Around 65K, which is too high for the BB with any draw and with the range UTG has, it would push him to a make a mistake.
But again, if you feel weak guy is more likely to fold, then I would call.
I would argue that UTG’s flop check and BB’s turn check give us quite a good deal of information, relative to what we had pre-flop or before the flop action. You say “Nobody got that much more information than what we already had from them before the flop. We just now know that overpairs are really less less likely. Sets and draws are possible though.” but I would expect sets and draws to bet flop (in case of UTG) or turn (in case of BB).
This sentence you are quoting was more meant about them.
Even though you are right on the fact that I was wrong hehe !
I went too fast on that part of the thought process which is not good.
I would perhaps argue on the fact that he bets his sets. If UTG is weak, he would often slow-play sets in my opinion.
But I truly agree with the fact that he would often bet his draws. I would even say that he would normally c-bet most of his air range on the flop because of his pre-flop raise. I don’t see him wise enough to imagine a long-run bluff.
Now that I’m thinking back about it and after what you just said I would say that this guy got at least a pair perhaps the second one with a good kicker, I would imagine a hand like Ace of spade and 4 offsuit.
– He doesn’t want to bet his second pair on the flop
– This spade gives him hope and as you said, he would really often bet his draws.
– We all show weakness on the flop so he must be thinking he is ahead and got a chance of earning this pot right now.
If I’m in his shorts how would I see a raise from us ? Can I get scared because of it ? Will I take it because of the draw ? Now, I think raising would show too much strength to him. I want him to be comforted on his wrong thinking.
If he thinks he is ahead, calling is not showing any strength to him, we can even make him think we want a cheap draw to the flush with a smaller card. We can even bring him to bet a good amount on the river.
I choose to call.
I would raise him on the river without any spade pretty much all the time.
That’s really a tough hand, love it !
I say raise to about 70K. Call a re-raise if it comes and go to the river. Fold only if the action goes crazy like BB re-raises and UTG shoves. If our bet is called by one or more players plan to call a non-spade river bet or bet if checked to.
Seems like a clear raise; you’re still pretty far ahead of his range which includes lots of overcards with one spade. Raise to 75K or so, I guess. Assuming he calls, plan on river is to check behind a spade. Bet a non-spade river if checked to. If he leads out on a spade river, sigh and fold (?). If he leads out on a non-spade river, just call(?).
If he 3-bets the turn, you’re in a world of pain, but with 9 outs to the boat you may well be obliged to call depending on the size of the 3-bet.
BB could have a flush, I suppose, I overs, perhaps a weak overpair. UTG’s bet is so weak that it feels more like a blocking bet than a value bet. I’d really like to be playing a bigger pot than it is turning out to be, even with the terrible turn. Raising is somewhat over valuing our hand, I think, but I think that we can perhaps get some value from high-single-spade hands.
If we make it 75, then we’ve still got some wiggle room left in our remaining stack. If we were then to get shoved on by either villain, it would be an ugly spot and probably a fold, I think. We’d be getting worse than 2:1, if my maths is right, and would have to anticipate facing a flush a high percentage of the time.
If Villain has AxSS (which I think is very possible even with his small bet) are raise probably gets shoved on and I think we have to fold.
If Villain doesn’t have AxSS if we bet turn, are we likely to get another bet on the river? I think villain will only call with AxS, so if a spade hits the river (except the unlikely 2s) we are screwed. “The point being that the cards that help him don’t help us, (unless he already has a flush on the turn).”
If a spade doesn’t hit the river I doubt villain puts anymore money into the pot.
Villain could have 88-99-10s and make trips on the river. He will probably fold these hands to a raise though not certain I guess.
I think our best chance to win a big pot is to call and fill up. River would go V bet, Hero raise or ship, V calls with nut flush.
Obviously there are a lot of scare cards 8,9,10. 5S or 6S given that it is possible villain has either the 5s,6s. Any spade is scary except the 2S. Plus any card that makes another straight possible is scary.
I think it is super close between raising to 100k and calling but I would call.
I’m not sure what to do (call/fold) to a river blank (j,q,k,a) facing a 100k bet but that’s the next street anyways…:)
Why do you say As xs is “very possible”? Wouldn’t you expect him to bet the flop as the pre-flop raiser with such a huge draw?
So I would for sure expect even a reasonable player to bet AS XS but you described him as weak . Maybe it’s because I play too much live 1/2 and 100$ buy-in tourneys but I see so many players check big draws in order to be able to call(avoid getting their raise jammed on) and make their flush I wouldn’t be surprised to see it here. Like if you had QQ and re-raised V bet, v would hate that spot. Perhaps the “very possible” wasn’t the best wording but I would say it is as likely as AS x? or a mid-pair. V bets small thinking “I have the nuts they will only call a small bet and no one has trips anyways or they would have raised the flop.” Plus amateurs me included sometimes do strange stuff, maybe he was planning to check-raise his AsKs versus that pokerstars guy who always bets his button when checked to…(I don’t think you were wearing pokerstars badge but you get the idea)
We should just raise. UTGs hand is very often Ax with As, he’s not being very aggressive so we don’t stand to gain much from trapping, and whatever we decide to do to a 3bet from either player I don’t think the probability of getting 3bet is large enough to affect our initial decision.
I don’t think I’m ever folding here. Even if I am beat now by one of them, the odds I’m getting offered to hit a full house on the river are too good and I’m going on the assumption that these opponents are straightforward enough such that if something happens like BB check-raises and UTG goes all-in, I can fold with confidence and I only wasted another 25K on this hand.
So the question is between calling or raising. One question is would either player keep going on this hand with a draw instead of a made hand, depending on the raise size. If we made a small raise, definitely yes, but then if they have a draw wouldn’t we want to make a big raise?
It seems like raising here is just raising for information and if I’m re-raised them I’m probably beat. So why would I want to risk more chips by doing that when I can either hit my full house on the river or re-evaluate on the river when I have more information in position. So I call.
If we knew he had a draw, we’d want to raise an amount that he’d call incorrectly. That’s very feasible when we have a set, because Villain is likely to miscount his outs. He may assume he has as many as 11, when in fact he has 7.
Even if we for some reason didn’t want to raise that much, raising something is still better than raise nothing the times that he has a draw. In other words, I don’t think it makes sense to say, “We’d rather raise big, but we’re not going to do that, so we’re better off calling than raising small.”
I think UTG villian is on a flush draw with overs/gutshot straight draw. BB villian has nothing. Raise to 95K.
A call avoids inflating the pot with the second-best hand and allows for a not too expensive call if we don’t improve on the river. It might keep BB in, compensating a bit for a missed bet. If we make a boat we hope to be up against a flush, if not we hope for the best. No need to get broke trying to maximize our winnings in this hand.
How do you see us going broke by raising?
I think UTG’s bet is a kind of semibluff at low side. If he wanted to bluff with air flop was better. So he saw weakness from three checks and try to win the pot or draw with his price and two overcards, one of them spade…
If BB was an aggressive player who attack weakness may be a call induce a bluff check-raise from him after a weak bet from preflop raiser and a kind of weak call in a drawy board. But I don’t think the BB is that kind..
So UTG’s hand is probably AsX (X= K,Q,J,T) and now has 11 outs vs Hero hand. That’s a lot of outs to just call. In his eyes Hero’s hand looks weak. He probably expect a bet at flop with a pair or better, flush draw or str8 draw (56)…
If hero raise in villain’s eyes the only made hand he didn’t bet at flop is A5 and less possible some unlikely two pair, like 23 or 34, that check one pair at flop and now has two. More possible villain saw the raise as a semibluff with similar hand and with the outs that he has may be he decide a 4-bet all-in count to fold equity to.. So i prefer a raise to 90k to give the illusion of fold-equity.. If he only call, Hero knows what rivers are bad for him… The small chance that he checked a Flush draw at flop and now he has flush is a risk that hero i think he took it after flop check..
I didn’t mention BB.. But I think if he had something too strong he didn’t check again risking a free card to two players in this board.. But if he come over the top we evaluate next week I think (lol)…
Raise to 100K. Fold to (highly unlikely) BB check raise-shove since that represents huge strength and not a draw. Also, fold to UTG all-in 3b since a weak player will rarely 3b bluff all-in.
If called in one or both spots, shove if checked to and if river is not a scare card — such as 4th spade that doesn’t pair the board or any 5 since that would make big Ace hands which are a significant part of UTG’s range a straight. Fold to a river ‘donk’ shove since that too is unlikely to be a bluff, esp if coming from BB.
BTW, 100K turn raise is designed to allow a pot-sized river bet which a weak player *may* call if one of the non-spade ace, kings, or maybe even queens rolls off. You might bet less on brick rivers since such a large bet is unlikely to be called.
I think villain has a lot of semi-bluffing hands. If he can bluff on the river I think it is better to call. If he check his missed draws on the river I think hero has to extract value now by raising.
I am wondering if hero’s big hand on the flop turns into a bluff catcher on the turn ?