This week’s What’s Your Play? is a little different, in that it’s the first in a series of three posts about the same hand. Rather than asking you to discuss a plan for the entire hand, I’m going to start the discussion with a flop decision. Of course you may still choose to speak broadly about how possible future action influences your flop decision, but you won’t need to consider every possible turn scenario, because next week we’ll find out what exactly happens on the turn and discuss that particular situation in-depth. Make sense? Here we go!
It’s early on Day 5 of the WSOP main event. We’re in the shallow money, with 574 players remaining out of 7319, and Hero’s table draw is a great one for such a late day in the tournament, featuring several pretty weak amateurs. Hero (me, in my late twenties with dark sunglasses and no logos on my clothing) begins the hand with a slightly below average stack of 500K. Blinds are at 4K/8K/1K.
One of the weak players, a guy about my age sitting on a stack of about 450K, raises to 20K in first position. I call with 2c 2h in middle position, and a middle-aged player new to the table and sitting on 600K calls in the big blind. The three of us see a 7s 4s 2d flop, and both of my opponents check relatively quickly. What’s your play and why?
Post your thoughts in the comments section below. I’ll be back with my thoughts, as well as the flop action and the turn card (don’t think I’m giving away too much by revealing that Hero does not fold the flop), on Friday.
You have a huge hand, so bet. I would bet 50K or so.
I can see an argument for checking – this is a low dryish flop that is likely to have missed your opponents. Maybe they will catch something if you wait for the turn, maybe they will bluff if you show weakness.
But I think this is all outweighed by the fact that if you want to double up, you have to start betting now. It’s going to be tough to get all the chips in the middle if you delay by one street.
Just hope that one of your opponents has slow-played an overpair (unlikely but not impossible), or will put you on a bluff, or will semi-bluff a flush draw, or at least that you will get a little action from a weak pair.
The most likely outcome is that both your opponents fold, but if they have nothing, chances are you won’t make much by waiting for the turn either.
Do you mean “weak” to mean crappy or “weak” like poker term-of-art (I assume both)? You’re deep enough that allowing someone to make a second-best hand to pay you off a little is a consideration. How often did V1 c-bet? I assume he c-bets virtually all of his big pairs, so I’m not really worried about getting two-outed on the turn. If he were a thinking player who was happy to get in here with a big pair, stacks are not terrible for bet-shove for V1.
V@ in the BB could have any two cards at this point, and we don’t know his proclivities w/ flush draws. SPR of 8ish means you have room to deal with a crappy turn at that point even though three ways is not optimal. If V2 has a flush draw and it comes in OTT, V2 will lead out most of the time, and we have odds in position to read/redraw if needed. It’s hard to think that V2 would lead a flush OTT and V1 spaz-raises out with like AsQo (unless paired now) when V1 did not c-bet. And you’re underrepped.
Mostly crappy, although the two do tend to go hand-in-hand 😉
If my math is correct there is 73k in the pot right? I would definitely bet but the question is how much.
I’m not sure how much we know about “weak player”, particularly how he plays his draws and what moves might be in his arsenal (check-call; fold to significant bet; semi-bluff raise; c-bet with two overcards; check raise with overpair; etc). His check after a UTG raise is very weak (AK/AQ?) or perhaps looking for a check-raise with an overpair on this low board. He should almost always make a c-bet after a UTG raise on this flop, but why doesn’t he? I would deduce he either has two overcards looking for a free turn or is slowplaying (as amateurs love to do) an overpair on what he thinks is a safe board. In the latter scenario he probably expects hero to take a stab in position with almost any hand and to then to take a slightly bigger pot down with his check-raise. Obviously if this happens we are more than ok with it but if we bet an amount that gets him to fold some hands that could possibly catch up (Any AsXs comes to mind) then we are ok with that too. His hands that beat us probably won’t continue if we correctly size the bet and the hands we dominate probably think they are ahead so its definitely a no-brainer to bet in this scenario concerning “weak”.
Since we know next to nothing about “new guy” and have no idea what he’s capable of or I would also favor betting over checking behind. “New guy” could have any two here as he only had to call 12k into 61k (8k of his own BB). It would suck to check behind and have another low card that doesn’t pair the board peel off. He could easily have 68; 56; etc here.
He also doesn’t know much about hero or “weak” and is susceptible to a squeeze with “weak” still to act behind him (when we bet). I just don’t see how he can call a bet on this flop without some sort of hand or big draw like As3s or 6s5s. Of course he could have a bigger set and be looking for a check-raise himself. We really have a tough decision if he re-raises us but its probably a shove and if its set over set oh well.
Sorry for the lengthy post, but to sum up I would bet somewhere in the neighborhood of 55-65k to make it a mistake for any draws to call but also provide “weak” and his possibly holdings an opportunity to check-raise us and pump the pot even more. If “new guy” just calls it gives “weak” proper odds for flushes but I can’t see “new” just calling. He’s either folding or re-raising here.
No reason not to bet and get it in. I’d make a standardish bet size of about 45K, and just shove it in if we get c/r’d. No reason to get cute and let the board develop to a point where overpairs or big draws slow down later in the hand. If one of ’em wakes up with 77/44 then c’est las vie, never folding here.
Bet 40k or Check. I like Check because you don’t get BB to fold anything but hands that can’t hurt you (maybe he folds 99,88). V1 UTG 90% of the time has 2 high cards. Checking will make it a little harder to get it all in by the river & there is a chance you lose to 999 or 888 but well worth keeping V1 UTG in the hand.
I like betting ~30k into the 80kish pot. These guys probably aren’t very likely to spazz out just because your bet looks like a steal, but they might peel with something weak (like Ahi) and if BB actually has a hand you want to start getting some money into the pot now. It does look very unlikely that you’ll get action from the original raiser, but the BB might have something that calls a bet or two. To be honest I’m not entirely sure about the sizing. I’m not sure it gets more value than a ~50k bet. I do see villains calling a 30k bet a bit lighter than a 50k bet, I just don’t know if the difference in their calling range is large enough to make up for the smaller bet. Still, as of right now I choose the smaller bet.
If you get raised (I don’t really see that happening) I’d just get it in.
Put me in the 25k-30k camp, for the reasons Christoph stated.
Having flopped a set (even bottom set), our objective is to get as many chips in the middle as possible as quickly as possible while not scaring off our action.
Bet 40K on flop — in fact, we could bet more (65K!?) since we know at least one opponent will want to see turn…Andrew already told us 😉
Even facing CR on the flop, we should commit all our chips. We should also plan to follow-up with 80K turn bet into a pot of approx 150k assuming it goes heads-up. This sets up a pot-sized river shove.
If called in both spots on the flop, and checked to on the turn, bet 100k. Shove brick rivers.
If the flush card hits on turn heads-up, bet-fold vs CR shove.
If the flush card hits on turn multiway, we should check behind (a) to protect our stack b/c we can’t stand a CR and (b) to see if we can fill up on the river to win a huge pot vs opponent who missed a turn CR but may not be able to fold a flush even when the board pairs.
If BB continues in hand and straight draw cards (8, 6, 5, 3) hit on the turn or river, take bet-fold line. Without specific reads (and to be an ageist), BB is unlikely to check-bluff raise later streets without having us beat.
check AINEC, too dry a board for either of these players to have much of anything. everyone wanting to bet isn’t incorrect but you’re just winning the 73k almost every time here. check it back all day and i can’t even fathom why people want to bet into two players who have almost nothing almost 100% of the time and we have a hammer lock on the hand. CHECK.
There’s a flush draw out there and some straight draws in the BB’s range, be it 65 or A3, A5. It’s not a wet board but it’s not completely dry either. You’re also making a big assumption that you’re going to get a fold every time here. The BB has some 7’s in his range that he will certainly call with that didn’t want to lead out into 2 people, notably the UTG raiser. UTG may also have a big overpair based on his quick check or might even make a call with AK with As thinking Hero is weak and since he has a backdoor draw. Building the pot a bit with a small bet makes the most sense to me. I’d bet around 30k expecting to get called a decent amount of the time. This will get effective stacks with the BB to ~450k if he calls and ~400k with UTG if he calls, setting up a turn bet followed with a river shove if we gets calls on the flop and turn. If Hero gets raised following his bet, I’d raise back, size depending obviously on what the raise size is.
Pot is 73K with effective stacks of 430K (5.9 SPR) vs UTG villain and 480K (6.6 SPR) vs BB.
Since UTG is described as weak I would put his initial raising range as 99+, AJ+, KQs
I think he could check the flop with almost all of that range, either as pot control with the pairs or giving up with the broadway cards. He’d probably bet out with two spades and lead out half the time with an overpair, depending on which one it is.
BB could have almost anything (except the stronger part of UTG’s range): any pocket pair, broadway combination, connector and 1 gap connectors (suited or unsuited)
I think BB is more likely to connect with this board and would check @95% of the time whether he hit or not.
I’m going to go under the assumption that we have the best hand since 77 and 44 are too small a part of BB’s range (and SPR is too low too worry about it).
So the first question is whether we should bet or check? You should check with a made hand only if you are unlikely to be called by a worse hand and you’re unlikely to be outdrawn.
We are unlikely to be outdrawn by UTG (maybe 5 to 10 %) and are more likely to be outdrawn by BB (mabye 25 to 30%).
Are we likely to be called by worse? Depending on the bet size, I would say about 50% likely by UTG (his over-pairs) and maybe 33% likely by the BB (anything that hit or his draws).
So given that, I think we want to bet to build a big pot and target the parts of their ranges that would call or even raise.
The best hand to target might be an overpair by UTG. If he has AA, KK, or QQ he’s probably going to call two bets, say if if it goes bet, BB folds, call, check-check on the turn, and bet on the river. He’d probably be willing to commit another 150K with one of those hands.
So I think I’m going to bet 50K on the turn. Let’s play into his hands if he was trying to pot control with AA (and if he’s really weak maybe he’s planning on check-raising with that hand).
I think a larger bet like 70K might fold out too many UTG’s hands that would call.
This might give BB better implied odds if he is drawing, but if he calls I will be in position on the turn to re-evaluate if a scare card comes and he is the one more likely to check-raise (I’m fine with getting it in on the flop vs. either player and the lower bet gives BB more of an allusion of fold equity)
Reading other’s comments I might want to change my bet size to about 30K if that means getting more calls from UTG’s broadway cards. If that doesn’t get him to call with those hands, then I think 50K is better.
Another factor that I think is in favor of some sort of bet is the relative positions of the two opponents. If their position was reversed then I think it would be much more likely to go fold-fold when we bet as UTG will still have another player to act after him. But if BB folds to our bet, then he’s much more likely to call heads-up. Also, as I think someone mentioned, BB could attempt some sort of squeeze cr to get UTG off an over-pair, but then that might not be likely from a middle-aged guy new to the table (don’t see it with a weak draw, but definitely see him or almost any player doing it with 5s6s or something similar).
Do you really think a crappy-weak player only c-bets half of the time with an overpair here? If that’s the case, I think a smallish bet is good. I just think he c-bets a lot more than that.
You’re probably right, c-bet with overpair is probably more like 80%, maybe even higher, especially if he thinks he needs to protect against draws with this board. So another reason for the smaller bet if his range is skewed towards broadway cards.
Pot on the flop is 73k ish (20*3 + 9 + 4). Bet 28k. Easy game.
I like Gareth’s bet sizing because even with 2 callers we can probably afford (good direct/implied odds) to see the river vs a turn bet by Villain.
Bet, although it’s interesting that I think I’d be betting pretty much any two cards I held here. I don’t think that’s inconsistent, I’m not sure however. I think I’d bet bigger with air, and maybe half pot-ish with a set, provided I was confident that my bet sizing wasn’t being picked up on by either villain.
Hero has a big hand and all hero wants is to build a big pot.
How to build a big pot with 7s 4s 2d on the board, a SPR around 7 and two passives players ?
Villains are weak players, one with a strong range because he raises UTG and another one with a weaker range in the BB.
It is difficult to imagine that the utg player checks an overpair or 2 spades here so I think that his check’s range has a lot of ace high combinaisons.
The BB’s range is larger than utg’s. He can check all his range so we have no information about his hand. He can check for :
– a check/raise with 2 spades, 56, 35, A7
– a check/call with a set, 2 pairs, 2 overcards with a big spade
– a check/fold with the rest.
To start building a big pot I think the question here is What kind of hands will lose a big pot against a set ? I think that if hero doesn’t improve on the river, he will be happy to be called by an overpair, 2 pairs or top pair top kicker. It doesn’t reprent a lot of hands since the
board is 7s 4s 2d. So hero can be tempted to check and let villains hit and an overcard, but not all overcards will hit villains’ ranges, a spade can freeze the action or give BB a flush, and a baby card can give BB a straight.
So I think hero has to bet here because BB can call with draws and utg can call with 2 overcards like AK.
I think a 40% bet pot is a good start to build the pot.
to start with, insta muck pre… however, that’s just me
but if i were u:
pre:
-start by giving the utg benefit of doubt
-your call opens u to lp sqzer (i would sqz if i were there in lp/sb/bb with a wide range, i wud not 3bet 2s in mp there unless u give me more info)…so i assume you felt that a sqz wasn’t going to happen, and utg had weak image
-the bb is calling coz he has weak range and/or doesn’t know about sqz and/or …
-u are now in enviable position, with equal stacks and tricky pp
flop: chk chk
you hav a nice hand on a tricky brd, how to get as much value as possible within the cntext. i think betting would scare off all the hands u beat like the fd and str8d, and tell you alot about the hands that beat you. those that beat you already…very few, those that u beat…very very many.
And what about the next two streets? only one card will give you a nut type hand quickly (altho not the nut of nuts), while many cards could give them better than set hands.
So you are likely way ahead with little chance of improving and they are likely way behind with lots of chances to improve.
Bet the hell out of the flop, muck if challenged, and then promise to forget about 2s in MP.
edit line 13:
all the hands u beat like the fd, str8d, pp and even 2pair, and tell you something about the hands that beat you (77,44).
Hey John,
I think you significantly undervalue how strong 22 is on this board. Betting and folding to a raise would be quite poor, as you’d be throwing away the best hand 95% of the time.
There are 6 combos of higher sets, and potentially 36 combos of overpairs, and dozens of FDs, straight draws, etc
Against any pair that doesn’t have a set, we currently have a 95%/5% edge, so being worried about getting overset is not really a concern 🙂
Me : what is our actual image at the table ?
My opponents :
A weak player who raised UTG : A-Js+, A-Qo+, 8-8+ ? Is he crappy enough to raise UTG with A-xs or 2-2+ ? Is he crappy-tight, loose or extra-loose ?
When I don’t know much about my opponent I tend to classify them in the most loose categories : A-x, K-J+ 5-5+.
Don’t know if it’s the best though.
The BB we don’t know much about is what he is : we know nothing ! Calling in the BB is anyway cheap for him he could have pretty much anything. I have to wait for his action on the flop to know more.
I don’t see any good argument for checking this flop.
The flop has some draws but is not likely to have hit many UTG’s raised hands preflop.
With this kind of action preflop any player would be waiting for us to bet this flop. +1 for betting
My hand is good but I dislike the flush draw which can be part of BB’s range or even UTG’s range. +1 for betting
Checking this flop would not help me build a good pot, if another spade hits the turn it would be frightening for a lot of hands. +1 for betting
I should disguise my hand by playing like a normal agressive player who would be adopting an orphan, now, how much ?
I would bet 48K on this pot to make sure that chasing a flush draw would be a mistake and also to know where I am right now against these two.
If raised I can narrow the ranges pretty much.
If raised by the BB I can put him on a bluff, semi-bluff, double pair or a higher set. Shoving here would be the same as yelling “set!” in my opinion he would fold with lower hands and call with his sets and perhaps his semi-bluffs.
If it’s UTG who raises, it’s less scary because no hands on his range are worrisome. Depending on his profile I would shove if I think he would be calling with his bad hands or if I think he can second barrel all-in on the turn I would definitely call if it’s not a too much scary card (ie : spade or completing a straight).
What do you think ?
Good questions. It’s still pretty early in the day, so I don’t think Hero has much of an image one way or the other. Likewise with UTG, though I think you’re right to lean towards a looser range as a default.
I’m also a little confused: you say that the flop has some draws but is not likely to have connected with UTG’s range, but then you also say the flush draw could be part of UTG’s range a few sentences down.
I wanted to convey two ideas in the same sentence : the flop is not incredible for a raised hand (like a good part of his range A-x K-T or K-J+) in general and because we are last to talk, a bet from us would often sound like a bluff after two “weak” checks.
And, you are right, it’s a bit confusing said like that.
Let me explain :
I didn’t say it clearly enough but even if only a small part of his range can be suited cards I can’t totally exclude a flush draw on his part.
I often see weak players overconfident with suited figures but I don’t think I have to be afraid of it, it’s not by being frightened that we succeed in poker !
I can actually get a good amount of chips if he’s bad enough to overbet bluff at the turn or river after missing his draw.
Sounds reasonable ?
(I really like to read and discuss hands in your site by the way, I’m learning a lot about my thinking process)
Just bet to get value from the BB. Given that UTG opened and stacks are reasonably deep, BB can have flatted pre with a hand as strong as TT. Then there’s all the flush draws & 7x, which are going to at least call, because with us being on the button and UTG showing weakness BB should expect us to be betting a very wide range.
Bet 35k.
I think we want to bet the flop. We want to get some money into the pot. Even though we’re going to fold out a large amount of hands that may be drawing dead or have little equity I think the board could get very scary fairly fast and that would freeze up the action.
I think betting like 80% of the pot and hoping for the A of spades to roll off. Since most of the time unless they are playing the straight flush draw the A of spades on the turn will rule out a lot of flushes.
First time on here.. bear with me:) Really enjoy reading this site Andrew… Keep it up!
One last thing before I comment on the hand stated above.. I am hearing impaired… do you know of any training videos that are subtitled?:) onwards!
Interesting situation..
After reading everyone’s posting. There’s obviously alot of ways to play this hand.
However… seeing that you hit the flop heavy with a set… if it was me… I would be raising here… a bet of 42k. There’s no way im checking here because id like to keep building the pot. If I am called, then it would help me narrow down their ranges. If they all fold, which would be okay with me. 73k added to my stack. Evaluate again on turn card.
Not sure what to tell you about training videos for the hearing impaired, but I’ve got a large archive of strategy articles that you should be very helpful to you without asking anything at all of your ears 😉 https://www.thinkingpoker.net/articles/
I have to disagree with the “73K added to my stack” mentality at the end of your post. Most of that 73K is already yours, in the sense that your equity against their flop ranges is through the roof. Even if you don’t bet, you’re extremely likely to win this pot. If you were bluffing, then betting and taking it down would increase your equity by nearly 73K (you might well still have some equity in the pot). When you already have a very strong hand, though, you should be much more concerned about getting more money into the pot from hands you crush than about taking down a pot that mostly belongs to you already.