What’s Your Play? PCA Edition

28 thoughts on “What’s Your Play? PCA Edition”

1. Hey Andrew and others,

   Long (really long) time reader — have really enjoyed the blog — first-time poster.

   Feels like a c/f if Villain 1 bets.

   Villain 1 shouln’t be bluffing here:

   – One, his turn call probably indicates showdown value.
   – Two, he has to worry about villain 2 after his turn overcall. I wouldn’t expect villain 1 to bet anything worse than TPGK and maybe not even that for fear that villain 2 has him beat on the river.
   – Villain 1 may think villain 2 was on a draw and hero was airballing on the turn. But, even with these assumptions, that still leaves the question of what he called with on the turn that needs to bluff against air now.
   – Villain 1 could have called with a draw — picked up clubs or a gutshot — this possibility is helped along a bit with our read on his looseness. But, given our read on his passivity, I wouldn’t expect him to be betting these missed draws on the river.
   – Therefore, I would fold versus a bet from villain 1 regardless of whether villain 2 overcalls.

   *There is some, perhaps outside, chance Villain 1 could be (last ditch) value/block betting but I think this is unlikely.

   If villain 2 bets, I think we should call.

   Villain 2 is unlikely to have 8x or a pair:
   – Villain 1’s call on the turn on a dry board should have discouraged villain 2 to call with 8x a decent enough amount of the time (esp given the scared money read)
   – Villain 1 may well have bet the flop w Qx
   – Villain 1 may well have checked back with any other pair that would be happy to check the river

   Villain 2 may well have a missed draw:
   – Villain 2 may have called turn with a variety of draws: straight draws, flush draws and gutshots that all missed
   – Villain 2 asked how much so may have been thinking a bit about the immediate and implied odds
   – Stacks are deep enough to play speculative hands pre-
   – Villain 2, if he is thinking about it, looks pretty strong
   – The action has been pretty weak

   *Our niggling doubt on the missed draw bit should be our scared money read.

2. Hello,
   Have been a reader of Andrews blog for a few months now but this is my first post. Bare with me if my thought process is not quite as advanced as some of you, as I have only been playing for a year and attempting to improve via this blog as well as 2+2 forums etc.

   Scenario C: If villian (with his scared money read) bets, is this a feasible range of holdings: KcQc; QcJc; JJ; TT; 99; 66? I think he would have bet the flop with AcQc but could see him checking flop and calling turn with KcQc and QcJc once he picks up the flush draw. With the medium pairs I can see him checking flop and calling turn thinking that neither other play would check a Q on the flop and with the draws whiffing on the river gets comfortable enough to bet. 66 I think is highly unlikely as he would probably raise on the turn to protect against the flush draw but I think it is slightly conceivable his delay and asking “how much” could be an attempted over-act by an inexperienced player to slow play his set. Again I think with the scared money read thats probably unlikely but still worth mentioning.

   Haven’t fully worked out scenarios A and B yet but will post my thoughts on them later. I’m very open to receiving criticism/comments as I am still very much developing my ability to work through hands/scenarios such as these. If you see holes in my thought process please let me know.

   • Had another thought that perhaps Ah8h is also in Villan 2’s range and he calls turn once another undercard to his pair comes then ends up with trips on the river, explaining his bet on the end.

3. For Scenarios A/B: I think we need to decide what kind of hand this loose-passive player has that is early position raise worthy since he usually limps more than raising. AA and KK could conceivably slow play a pretty dry board but would definitely raise the turn bet once some draws develop so I think we can rule those out. A slowplayed QQ set is also unlikely for the same reason plus hero has a Q in his hand as well.

   JJ-99 seem like possibilities so I include them in his range especially since no one bet the flop he may feel like those are the best hands on the end. 88 for rivered quads is highly unlikely as he would bet the set to protect from draws on the turn. 66 for a turned set would probably raise the turn for the same reason and I don’t think this loose-passive raises early with any pair below 88.

   AK would explain the PF raise in EP and the turn call if it was AcKc or if he just didn’t believe anyone had anything and might hit TPTK on the river. AQ would play similarly but I don’t think he checks the flop with TPTK. KQ is a strong possibility in my opinion, more so a KQ suited, especially KcQc explaining the non-raise on the turn. Overall if villan 2 folds I think we can call heads up on Villian 1 with a possible range of JJ-99, AQ, KQ, with miniscule chance of 88, 66 or QQ. If I’m way off base with this please let me know why.

   Also my ranges for both villans turned out very similar, so I’m probably missing an important aspect of this situation?

   bottom line is I think we can call either Villan heads up but probably not both.

4. Thinking through this — but keep in mind that I play at *much* lower stakes than this with much worse competition. That being said: I can’t figure out why V1 would c/c the turn unless he has an absolute monster.

   If he’s a typical tight/tournament player, I’d expect him to lead out early with TT+, AK, maybe AQs, maybe KQs, maybe 99? I don’t want to underestimate 8s but particularly at level 2 of a big tournament it strikes me that this kind of player is just going to call with 8s.

   On the flop, I’d think V1 leads out with virtually all of those potential holdings: KK, JJ, TT, 99, AQ, KQ. If he’s super-tight, you could see him also betting his aces (because it has to occur to him that it’s at least possible that V2 or H has called with 88). His check says either AK (with the plan to c/f if there’s too much action) or slowplaying AA or a monster (QQ, 88), right?

   When Hero leads out on the turn, V1 should rightly read that as just about anything. When V1 calls with V2 left to act, that says that he isn’t interested in figuring out whether Hero is bluffing, betting AQ, KK, or even trips. Isn’t that a show of ridiculous strength? Plus, V1 isn’t getting odds on any draws AND those drawing hands are tremendously unlikely to be in V1’s open raising range in the first place with the possible exception of AKs. Doesn’t this mean QQ, 88, or (possibly) AA?

   It’s hard for V2 to just call the turn with AQ/KQ given that he’s going to have to put more money in the pot on the river, but maybe. Additionally, he calls with his draws (clubs, T9s, maybe 97s) and of course with QQ/88.

   This is all pre-river, but I just don’t know what we can hope V1 has that we can drive out or beat, other than AKs.

5. I was initially tempted to value bet but I’m not sure how much we can count on V1 calling with 99-JJ (if he even plays those this way most of the time), and he could be slowplaying a monster. V2’s range is mostly missed draws or maybe and 8 or a 6, but he’s not calling with a 6 anyway. It’s not impossible for either to have a Q, but they seem like the types who you wouldn’t expect to get too fancy by checking top pair on the flop.

   So I like checking. The question of what to do for the a,b,c scenarios above will come down to live reads/feel if you can get any. In the absence of said reads I’m not sure how much I’d expect either Villain to bluff into 2 players given one is “passive” and the other is “scared”. Both of their value ranges are quit narrow though. They both have bluffs in their range, but there are a lot more random missed draws V2 can have due to his much wider pre-flop range. I would probably call in scenario ‘c’, but I wouldn’t be too happy about it, and would fold if I got a feeling he wasn’t bluffing. It’s possible that V1’s quick call on the turn in indicative of a draw, but unless I had something else to make me think that I wouldn’t call him.

   • Agree with a lot of what you outlined, Bond2King. Couple of additional thoughts on our bet/check decision.

     For the reasons outlined, we think v1’s calling range (with worse) is narrower than v2’s bluffing range so we check.

     But, I think there is a role for our reads if they apply on the river in the bet/check decision. Our read on v1 suggests that despite his narrow calling range, he may be calling a river bet with his holdings more often due to his looseness. He may call lighter because our range may consist of missed draws often enough in his eyes. He may also have a view on calling down a PS pro.* Plus, our read on v2 suggests that despite his wide bluffing range, he may not be bluffing due to his “scared money” trait. These things suggest a bet.

     In weighing the bet/check considerations up, we might discount our reads because of the early level and that they may not apply on the river and focus on ranges based on (presumably, stronger) reads applying to earlier streets instead — which leads to the checking conclusion. I was also inclined to check because I thought a narrow range plus a river tendency (i.e., for v1 to call) may be dominated by a wide range plus a river tendency (i.e., for v2 to bluff). This does not have to be true though.

     Therefore, if it’s still close, another aspect of checking that I think is good is that it is lower risk insofar as we can see how things play out before deciding (avoiding, for example, hero bets, v1 calls, v2 raises, hero?).

     *Or not, as you recently showed down KK

     • Nice comment, cbeak. Where do you get that V2 has a tendency to bluff?

       • Thanks, Andrew! Regarding your question, the statement about v2 — bracketed in the second last paragraph — should read “i.e., for v2 not to bluff”.

6. A I call V1 thinking he has a range of (QQ,AQ,KQ,QJ,JJ,10’s,88,66) but I am good just often enough for a call.

   B I am actually pretty tempted to shove (given the right live read) putting V1 on mostly, AQ,KQ,QJ,JJ and V2 on an 8 or a q and not wanting to call off his stack, but I probably just fold (not call) fearing an 8 or (not shove) fearing slow played fullhouse.

   C I call V2 unless my live read tells me not to, thinking he is betting a missed draw or smaller pair often enough to make my call worth it. It does say V2 is scared money but i also think a young kid will feel like this is a perfect spot to bet a missed draw to the point where he feels compelled to do so. If he seems super strong I might fold putting him on a 8 or 66.

   • Thanks, Eric. On (B), you’re talking about trying to push V2 off of trips with a river check-raise? Ambitious 🙂

7. OK, V1 goes out of the box a bit by raising early position, probably a decent hand, AK-A-10, pocket pairs 7s and up. V2 could have a lot of holdings calling in the cut-off. Flop is pretty good for us in Qd-8c-2h, we check, V1 checks and V2 checks as well. This makes me think we’re either really good or one of these guys hit a set of 8s or 2s, Aces or Kings, less likely Queens since we have one. And while I can’t put V1 on Q-8, it’s slightly more possible for V2. On the turn 6c we decide to put out a bet, why not, we probably have the best hand, right? Except V1 calls quickly which makes me think he actually has/had something of value, V2 thinks for a moment, figures things out and then calls as well. This makes me think maybe he picked up a flush draw or maybe had 9c-10c and now is double-gutted with a possible flush draw or possibly some weak Queen(QJ,Q10) with a flush draw, it doesn’t seem like he was thinking of raising and decided against it, but more figuring out his odds to call and maybe implied odds for the river.

   So best case scenario on the river 8d we have the best hand with Queens-up Ace-kicker. Worse case scenario someone had an 8 and since we were all so passive on the flop an 8 could be the best hand on the turn, and now it’s destroying us on the river. I think we should check here hoping to induce a worse hand to bet, it also keeps the pot small in case we don’t have the best hand. I think if we bet, worse hands probably fold, better hands will probably raise us(8s and boats) and it’s possible a few air-balls might raise as well causing us to fold

   I Check:

   a) Villain 1 bets 3000, Villain 2 folds. -> I’m cautious as to why V1 would now all of a sudden bet, like he sat on his hand the entire way and now wants to get value(Ac-8c??)? I think it’s possible he bets Jacks,10s,9s, here, too, and it’s less likely he sat on his Aces or Kings the whole way so I think we’re better off calling, could be Queens, too, unlikely though on the turn-call

   b) Villain 1 bets 3000, Villain 2 colds. -> This makes me think how could we have the best hand? Though it is like 3 to 1 to call and we are kinda deep I might make a crying call just because it’s kind of unlikely V2 only calls with an 8, but it seems more likely he had a weak Q and picked up clubs on the turn or something

   c) Villain 1 checks, Villain 2 bets 3000. -> I think just for the fact that he could be trying to steal after missing what seems like his draws we have to call, if V1 raises I think we have to fold, though I’m not sure what he’d check-raise with, would seem a risky play based on the way the hand went prior to the river.

   • Thanks for a great comment, really well thought-out and thorough! I was a little surprise to see that you thought V1 would value bet hands like 99-JJ on a Q8268 board. What could he hope to get called by?

     • That’s a good point, and maybe I’m reaching, but I think the way the hand played out V1(with Js,10s,9s) can put us on a pretty wide range of hands that he can beat and might be able to get a call from given that V2 mostly folds, having probably missed his draws and he’s playing “scared”. It’s not unreasonable to put us on some small pair or just a 6 that he might get more value from. I can’t wait for you to tell us tomorrow that it’s obvious V1 has pocket 8s :-\ While it’s possible for him to have A-8, I’m not quite sure I can give him credit for that with his loose-limpy image and his pre-flop raise…

8. Good evening gentlemen,
   I think villain 1 holds AK, villain 2 has JJ.
   V1 is bluffing. He missed the flop and tried to see free cards as cheap as possible.
   V2 fears the Q overcard, but can`t convince himself to lay down his hand. The checks on the flop made him believe nobody connected with the flop.

   I check
   a, b, c: I call.

   • Thanks for the comment. I think it’s ambitious to make reads that narrow. Those are plausible holdings for each player, but surely other hands are possible as well. It’s harder, but I think you’d be smart to try to consider multiple possible holdings for your opponents rather than trying to put them on exactly one hand.

9. 1) We should assume we have the nuts versus V1. We have the nuts versus his calling range (if we bet and he calls and V2 folds, we win 100% of the time). If we bet and V1 raises then we are in one of those very rare times that he has slowplayed a true monster and we can fold. But it is so unlikely that he does not raise our turn bet with a nutted hand being sandwiched 3 way on an increasingly wet board and having someone take his bait (Andrew in this case). So that’s why I would consider his raising range versus a bet practically empty and his calling range is always worse. V1 has zero 8x that are not 88 in his opening range.

   2) Do we have the nuts versus V2? Not necessarily. I haven’t read all the comments to know if people are suggesting his little think on the turn is between calling/folding, but there is the chance it is between calling/raising with a hand like 86s, so 86ss or 86hh. The reason he wouldn’t raise the turn with this two pair is basically he fears he can’t get action from worse (a legitimate concern) and his temptation to play cautiously affirms that he should just call. I doubt he neglects to bet a set on the flop or raise a set on the turn. So we are almost always best versus him as well. What about a bare 8? Once V1 cold calls Andrew’s turn lead, V2 is very likely to pitch most, if not all, bare 8x, including A8s. He has very little hope to improve versus the combination range of the two villains he faces and he will know that. He also is likely to often bet for protection when checked to on the flop with an 8x, especially a non A8 8x (with A8 he could check flop more often for the value of the times he turns an A versus the field, and the generally more robust nature of his hand). All in all though, he often bets an 8 on the flop or folds one on the turn. Hence he almost always has a draw on the turn, often a combination draw because of the nature of the board.

   Basically we can conclude we have the nuts versus both villains. V1 can have AK, 99-JJ, AJcc (maybe) and sometimes KQ. V2 on the other hand, look at all the double gutters he can have, T9s, 79s, 57s, and 45s are all double gutted, some of which will have flush draws, then JTcc, J9cc 43cc have gutters plus flush draw. There are all leaps and bounds more likely than some 8 or better hand than ours.

   I can’t for the life of me see Scenario 2 obtaining. If it does I would have to assume we have the nuts still since V2 should have a raising range versus V1 on the river of all the hands better than ours and a flatting range on the river versus V1 of all the hands worse than or equal to ours. We are definitely going to be ahead of V1’s river betting range as exasperated recreational players won’t consider the cogency of a bluff here and will instead just bet their AK 99 AJcc type hand in hopes of winning the pot. I think Scenario 2 is really close to a value raise actually since either player could call us should we check, V1 with his JJ and V2 with his Q9s/QTs that he checked back the flop with unsure of whether he could get more than 1 street of value. That being said while either of them could put us on a missed draw check-raising the river, I don’t think either will have the stones or hand strength to call with worse. So I would call scenario 2. For the reasons I outlined I would also call scenario 1 and 3 (guess I am just a huge station). We don’t expect V2 to be very bluff happy, but his assumed tendency to played scared money is going to make it far more likely that he folds an 8x on the turn than bluffs a huge combo draw that he whiffed. 3k isn’t going to be the end of V2’s stack or its utility so making a bad bluff with a missed monster draw isn’t outrageous even if he’s scared… he is an online and a Spanish player after all. He could also not check back QJ/QT some tiny frequency.

   Anyways so if we check we always call. Should we bet? How often does V1 call? I’d say pretty often given that he called turn. He can have 12 ish combos of AK and 1 of AJcc if I count correctly and then something like 18 combos of 99-JJ. He can hero call us with any of those 18 not giving proper pause to the implausibility of a bluff from our end or the ramifications of V2 behind him. Can V2 call us with worse? Sometimes, on the very rare occasions that he has a passively played Q9s or QTs. We should count very little on it. One benefit of value betting AQ here though is that we never ever get raised off the best hand. If villain continues versus a bet with a raising range that includes some better, but also some worse, and a calling range that is almost all worse, but raises often enough, we might want to be swayed towards check-calling, if that too is profitable.

   In any event getting a large enough frequency of calls I think is going to necessitate betting like 2400. If we bet 3000 or more we are going to start getting two folds a very large amount of the time. So since the likelihood either of them bets is probably greater than the likelihood either of them calls in the aggregate (the times V1 bets and V2 calls probably being more often than they both call a bet, and both being exceedingly rare) and because bets they put in are going to be larger than the one we do ourselves, I would check to never fold over betting myself.

   As for the title you couldn’t come up with, how about “Three Blind Mice” 😀 *crickets*

10. I think we should bet around 2500 and fold to a raise. With the player profiles you’re never going to get raised by worse. If you lead out River, villain 1 is going to call with all of his holdings (AA – 99, AQ, KQs) villain 2 will most likely call again with all of his holdings but raise anything that beats you on the end.

    For example villain 2 most likely isn’t going to raise AQ on the end but would raise 98s, 87s, 86s. He’s also most likely not going to bluff raise his missed draw if he had picked up a Flush draw on the turn.

    If villain 1 bets and villain 2 folds I think that’s a fold. Loose passives leading into 2 people has to have top/top beat? Right?

    If villain 1 bets and villain 2 cold calls I believe that’s also a fold. Especially if villain 2 has the same inclination as we do. (would mean that villain 1 has top/top beat, and that villain 2 has villain 1 ranges beat also)

    If villain 1 checks and villain 2 bets he could be betting his whole range since our line looks like a turn stab, give up river. I think we could call and I wouldn’t worry about a raise from passive villain 1. Although if passive villain 1 check raises I think that’s a fold.

    I was wondering if you had considered 3b pre? You’re going to have the worst position in the hand going forward. You’ll also have the worst relative position since villain 1 isn’t going to lead the betting to often being passive. I think you get the button to fold a bunch and you get heads up, granted in a bloated pot, but vs a passive player where I’d think you get to show down easier with 1p hands.

    I also think if you get 4b from the passive you could fold. If the button also suddenly 4b’s you could fold.

    Maybe my thinking is backwards. I’ve only played once in the last 3 months so my poker rational isn’t doing well.

    • Just to explain some of my post. I think that Villain 2 will call 2500 with anything that he was going to bet with.

      Being possible scared money he might even talk himself into a call with 86s. Obviously all of his draws he’s going to fold.

      Granted looking back at the hand now I think our had looks like either top/gk or a boat. Since we don’t have a whole bunch of 8x hands we’re calling out of the SB. (assuming)

      So I think our range is going to look like AQ, KQ, 88, 22, 66 if we lead out again on the River. If we had the nuts we’d definitely bet I think since it got checked around on the flop. I’d be a little worried that it was going to get checked around again since the River didn’t change a whole lot unless Villain has some sort of 8x hand that he would now feel comfortable value betting.

    • Thinking about it a little more we could bet even less and get the same results we’re looking for. I think we could bet as little as 1500 and I think each player would call 1500 with a worse hand and only raise with a hand that beats AQ.

      Like if either clicks it back or raises to like 5500 we could easily fold.

      • You expect to be ahead more often than not when called, right? So why would you want to be smaller?

11. Hello,

    I think we are ahead V1’s range [AJ, AK, JJ-99].
    It’s difficult to see V2 (a bit of a “scared money”) with an 8 in his hand. With his hesitation on the turn I think he can have a lot of draws in his hand or a weak Q.
    So I think we have the best hand. Now the question is how to extract value from our hand ?
    If we check I don’t see V1 bets. Will V2 (a bit of a “scared money”) bet ? I am not sure he will bluff (even when you under represent the strength of your hand) and I think he will check a hand with showdown value.
    So I think hero must bet, but how much ?
    A large of the time V1 will call a bet and V2 with his busted draws will fold.
    I don’t know if in this situation Andrew bluffs to balance his play, but I think on this board with a lot of busted draws it is a good spot to make a large bet and to be called by Jacks.
    So I will bet pot on the river.

12. The more I think about this(these spots) hand (and read the good posts) the more I hate AQ and think maybe its best to fold all 3 and save your ammo for another hand. At best these spots are just plus ev but still all super high variance. Basically your good as often as your bad and given Hero has an edge it seems to me being patient isn’t so bad.

13. Based on your description of villain 1, I think pre-flop he has 99+, AJ+, KQ, maybe even tighter. His quick call on the turn seems to indicate AA, KK, AQ, or KQ. I don’t think he would call so quick with stronger or weaker hands (maybe he would call quick w/99 to JJ, but I tend to think he would either fold or crying call). Villain 2 I give a wide range for his pre-flop call. Based on his turn action, I tend to think he has some kind of draw but could also have a stronger hand as well, so either two clubs, two clubs plus a pair, two pair, or a straight draw. So on the river I don’t think hero knows if he is good or up against two better hands or one better hand. I like making a small bet, 2200, figuring I’ll get called by both worse and better hands, and only be raised by monsters and I can fold easily. I think I’m more often up against at least one better hand, so this saves vs. checking and calling a larger bet.

    • If you think you’re up against a better hand more often than not, why not check and fold?

      • That’s my 2nd choice. I think in all 3 of the check scenarios you presented I would fold except scenario B where I think I’m getting the right odds to call based on what I think his range is (which also includes AcKc – left that one out). With betting 2200 I’m just trying to create better odds as I would definitely call in all 3 check scenarios presented if the bet was 2200. This also assumes that neither player would bluff raise the river, which I tend to think based on your description of each.

        • It sounds like you’re saying betting is -EV (you expect to run into a better hand more often than not), in which case check-folding scenarios A and C (0 EV) and check-calling in scenario B (where you feel you are getting the right odds, ie +EV) would be better than betting.

          • Betting isn’t -EV if I’m up against better hands more often than not. Betting 2200 is +EV if >25.58% of the time I’m up against one worse hand that calls (less if I’m ever up against two worse hands that call like KQ and JJ) and assumes I never get bluff-raised (which I’m assuming based on the profile of the two players). What I’m not sure about is what that % is, but 25 to 30% seems right. One problem that I can now see is that betting might get a fold from villain 1 when he has something like KQ because villain 2 is still left to act (and the way he acted on the turn might scare him into a fold more than usual), so betting might be better if the positions of the two villains were reversed (but then the hand would be completely different).
            Overall, my feeling on this hand is that I’d like to get a cheap showdown and was thinking that a small bet might accomplish that rather than letting them bet and set the odds. I wouldn’t be surprised if this thinking is way off.
            Just as a note, when I first reply to these I try to best replicate what I would think about and do in real time when playing the hand. So my analysis might not be as thorough or math that correct.

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