Villain is an unremarkable tournament grinder, probably a modest winner. I don’t know much about him, nor do I know what if anything he thinks of me. This is on PokerStars, so I do have my Team Online avatar which occasionally entices people to do crazy things, though I’ve got no specific reason to think that that’s a factor here. There’s no important history or table dynamic between us.
Poker Stars – $300+20 Tournament (#435011043) – Blinds: 200/400 +50 Ante, No Limit Hold’em (8 players)
Poker Stars Hand Converter Tool from CardsChat.com
SB: t25,330
BB: t9,032
UTG: t8,323
UTG+1: t25,215
MP: t13,846
MP+1 Hero: t16,901
CO: t31,444
BTN: t24,118
Pre-flop: (t600) Hero is MP+1 and dealt Ad 4h
3 folds, Hero raises to t800, CO folds, BTN calls t800, BB folds
Flop: (t2,200) 4d 4s Kh (2 players)
Hero bets t1,666, BTN raises to t3,640, Hero calls t1,974
Turn: (t9,480) 4d 4s Kh Ts (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
River: (t9,480) 4d 4s Kh Ts 7d (2 players)
Hero has a little over 12K left in his stack, and Villain covers. What’s your play? Anything you’d do differently on earlier streets? I’ll post my thoughts and comments on or about Friday morning.
1. It’s a strange flop to raise as a bluff. He cannot represent much. Also there aren’t any scare cards for him to barrel if you call the raise, apart from Aces maybe.
Having said that, you probably cbet this flop a lot, it’s hard for you to continue with a lot of hands, and his small flop raise doesn’t have to get you to fold all that often to be profitable.
2. He can also be hoping that it prompts you to check the turn, allowing him to see a cheap river. This could be a reason for him to raise the flop with hands that have some showdown value like pocket pairs or Ax.
3. I can’t really see him betting the river if you check to him. I don’t think he will be bluffing, or betting Tx. He might bet KQ, if he played it this way on the flop.
4. I imagine that once you call the flop your range in his eyes is largely Kx and pocket pairs, so if you lead the river he’s unlikely to put you on a bluff.
5. I guess for that reason I would just bet small, maybe 25-30% of pot, and hope to get a crying call / induce a spaz. Not sure, it’s a weird one.
I doubt he’d call preflop with KK, so I eliminate that from his range. A likely push could be AK, QQ, KQ with the thought that your 3bet makes him gets passive thinking you may have a 4. If he flatted with 10’s then you’re beat unless your betting pattern can show a higher boat, but with so much in the pot very little would induce a fold with that hand. that’s why I feel betting small here is not the optimal play – I probably would have barreled again on the turn and most likely induced a fold, IMO.
Hey Jeff,
Just curious – why do you want to induce a fold on the turn here? While the T does add a straight draw and a flush draw, vs villains bluffing hands and 1 pair hands, we’re doing very well with our Trip 4’s.
I think eliminating KK from his range given pre-flop, and more importantly flop play. is correct. Hard to imagine w/ these positions and stack sizes he doesn’t 3-bet, and he’d never raise this flop since he has the board completely crippled.
He’s also never going to fold TT or 77 – and more importantly our goal isn’t to make him fold a boat. I think the crux of this hand is that when he raises the flop – he’s either bluffing, or has a showdown value hand, and we want to figure out whats the best way to get that range to pay us the most – and i’m not sure betting turn is going to accomplish that.
With a read that he’s capable of spewing, I think a turn bet may have some merit though.
I think betting the flop is cool to confirm that he has a strong hand. At this point I would be guessing a reasonable K. KQ, KJ or KT. Checking the turn lets him get into trouble and him checking behind probably confirms that he has a king but wants to control the pot given the two 4s… If you check the river he will probably check behind and if you bet small for value he would probably shove over with his top pair. (especially if he hit two pair on the river)
My play would be to bet ~3000 and call a shove if it comes.
p.s. Great blog. Big fan of your work. Keep it up.
I don’t think there’s any chance he shoves over a river bet with just top pair. There’s no worse hands that can call.
Just playing devils advocate, if hero goes for a really small river bet, there is a chance villain raises with a single top pair hand like KQ/AK figuring our range looks a lot like QQ, JJ, TT.
But otherwise I agree with you.
Hey Tom,
As the poster above noted, I don’t think its too likely if we bet 3000 or more than villain jams with a single Kx hand for value. It’s just very hard for him to imagine he gets called by worse, and he also runs the risk of value-cutting himself against 4x, AA and 77 – as our line in this hand is reasonable for all of these holdings.
I think if you bet 3000 planning to call a shove, it’s actually with the intention of inducing a bluffshove from some airball hand, or he happens to have the case 4 (45s, 46s.
I think if I bet to induce a raise, I’d prefer more in the range of 1900, which gives villain some perceived fold equity on a jam.
I don’t know what your image is like but I like 3 betting the flop to 5911 to call. It seems like he should find your c-bet sizing on this board suspicious and that because you didn’t bet smaller on dry it might have been a large factor in him deciding to bluff raise. I still like 3 betting the flop despite that fact especially in a tournament where you want to have a boss image moving forward. It can get as much value as calling if we assume he perceives calling as stronger than raising and will treat his move as a one street bluff versus your unusually large c-bet.
If you 3 bet flop and he folds you strike fear, villains will perceive you as having a bluff range in that spot (whether you do or not) and also not want to defend as much versus you. If you 3 bet flop and he shoves, you will strike fear, because you will have showed down a strong hand.
As played I don’t mind leading turn like 2525 to call. On the river I think we definitely have to lead/call as well 3785 or something in that area.
If we 3-bet the flop is it because we think he might bluff shove? Or because we think he might call/get it in with his hands that have showdown value?
I kind of feel that without any dynamic, and with stacks as they are, it’s difficult to imagine villain ‘re-re-bluffing’ once we 3-bet. At least if we call he might pick up a draw on the turn which he might bet, or pick up a pair.
We can’t be bluffing if we call the flop raise oop. At least, we should be perceived as having no real air range. But we can be bluffing if we 3 bet the flop. The problem with calling oop with our value hand is situations exactly like this that arise where we have to lead turn or river to try to get value.
I don’t really like the insta click back trying to get villain to put us on a misclick that’s just way too sophisticated a thought process to try to induce I think. However, if we had a SN like EMO MELTDOWN I can see it having a lot more merit 😀
Well I suppose a lot depends on what his range is for raising this flop. If it’s nearly always air then we aren’t getting value other than by calling, unless we think he can shove air over our 3bet, but that seems pretty suicidal, it’s not like his air can have any equity on this board.
I agree that it’s hard for us to get value once we call the flop raise because we can’t then represent a bluff later. But we can represent a medium pair (by checking the turn), which he may try to get us off.
There’s a better case for 3-betting if he can be raising the flop with Kx, or some other hand with showdown value, & he thinks we 3bet-bluff often enough that he can bluff catch. I guess I think the conjunction of those two things is relatively unlikely.
Eh, I’m beginning to think 3b flop is way better than flatting. Also that betting flop this dry flop smaller (1200 maybe) is better as well.
1) This is a board where a reg expects another reg to cbet near 100% so…
2) He’s going to play back at it more often with air (perhaps “air” with a modicum of equity, eg Axs, other backdoor draws, etc) because he doesn’t want to have to plan on calling down barrels with ace high or worse. Maybe he chooses to float these hands instead, who knows. Anyway, if he’s thinking on this level it’s not a stretch to think he will expand his value-raising range as well; he really should be because having 100% of your range consist of bluffs is generally a bad idea against good players! So what can he have for value here? Almost never AA (1 combo, he’s likely to 3bet it pre) and almost never KK (again likely to 3bet it pre, he has the board so crushed he’s likelier to slowplay). Probably not AK because that’s likely to 3bet pre as well. So if his plan to play back at Andrew is to bluffraise this flop a bunch (not saying this is necessarily better than floating and balancing by flatting the KQ-KJ etc), he should also be raising stuff like KQ-KJ.
3) If he thinks Andrew thinks he’s bluffraising this flop frequently, he should probably be aware that a 3bet bluff is possible. I mean, does he really expect Andrew to Scandi-float his air in the hope the turn checks through so he can fire the river with a hand like ace high that still has a bunch of showdown value? Nah, he’d expect Andrew to 3bet or fold air that cbet flop, as villain should realize he’s repping extremely thin when he raises a K44r board. So with those “pretty” hands (Axs with backdoor draws, perhaps even worse) he could very well be able to pull the trigger on a 4bet bluff. Because he’s unlikely to put a another chip in the pot against a flat (it would be pretty spewy to try to bluff Andrew off the K+ he’s likely to have when he calls the flop raise), it’s not like we lose a bunch if he folds his air to a flop 3bet.
4) If he has some sort of king (or, yahtzee, the case 4), he’s probably not folding it to a small flop 3bet. He might flat, he might jam; whatever, both are obviously fine for us.
Say we lead for 1200 into 2200, then he makes it 3100…he’s almost certainly not folding KQ or KJ if we make it 5400 or something. And if he has that pocket air, he might think he’ll have fold equity when he jams for 15k (and if Andrew’s combatting a likely wide blufing range by 3betting here, he will have fold equity…obviously not this time which is a boon for us). As a final aside, villain won’t be crippled if he bluff-jams and runs into the goods; he’ll be left with 19 bbs, a “comfort zone” stack. If anything, this might make him more willing to fight for this pot by shipping the bux.
Well this has gotten a bit rambly, but it seems like a good idea to build a big pot with this huge hand in a spot where the opponent has many reasons to think we’re light and then act on it.
If you’re going to 3bet flop to 5911, why not just insta-CiB and make it 5614. If you do it fast enough to look like a misclick it should induce more spew (and also flats from hands that are getting such a good price with position) than a larger raise. I might like insta-min3bet better than flatting here. Sure flatting keeps the airballs in his range, but it looks so much like we have Kx+ and I doubt he’ll continue with his bluffs when he reps very few combos of 4x.
The flop cbet is way bigger than I’d expect on a K44r board, but it sets up a less-than-PSB on the river for when he flats call and turn (which, on this board, is definitely more of what I’d expect from both good mtt grinders and unremarkable ones alike).
I’m torn on the river as usual. If we check we (might) miss value from his flop airballs like JT that now have a pair, or from pocket pairs that “raised for info” on the flop but feel compelled to ignore said info because he wants to station off. I actually think he’s somewhat likely to bet the river with KQ-KJ if we check; we’re the preflop HJ opener and we bet/called the flop, so we could definitely show up with pocket pairs or worse Kxs here some of the time. Also, just because he gave up on the turn with his bluffs doesn’t mean he’s going to give up on the river; he might panic about not having any showdown value and try a hopeless bluff.
Yeah, I think I’ve talked myself into starting the river with a check; just seems like there’s so little that calls a bet that our best chance of making money in this hand is to hope he does something spewy. Not sure whether to c/r or c/c, I guess I c/r jam in real time and have an EMO MELTDOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!! when i get shown 77.
Grunch
His check back on the turn seems to indicate either a) he has showdown value or b) he has given up his bluff.
Given that hero bet-called a superdry flop out of position, I think villain could be checking back a hand as strong as KQ here. His range looks like pocket pairs, Kx, air, and MAYBE 4x but it’s highly unlikely.
If you check, he won’t value bet his pocket pairs on the river, and probably won’t bet most of his Kx, but might bluff at it again. Since the flop call makes Hero’s hand look so strong I think he’s unlikely to bluff at it again. So I would value bet about 4000.
The problem with value betting here is that it will likely look like Hero has a very small bluff range in Villain’s mind, as Hero would have had to float a raise oop on the flop, or be turning a hand with showdown value (Ace high?) into a bluff. He might give credit for Hero being able to do that given the Team Online status, but I wouldn’t count on it.
As such, I don’t think Villain is going to call with any hands that he wouldn’t just value bet himself anyway. If he has Kx, he will likely value bet it looking to get value from mid pairs, whereas he could possibly find a fold with a hand like KJ if he was facing a large bet. Check shoving also gives us the best chance to get his whole stack in case he doesn’t believe us for whatever reason, as well as the added value if he has air and decides to bluff again.
Betting small to induce losses too much value when Villain just flats hands he would have value bet if checked to, and might have the effect of preventing a bluff more than inducing it.
Completely agree with B2K. I like a check-shove a lot.
Other streets I play the same. I can see rationale for 3-betting flop, but I think with no history and no dynamic, he’s rarely going to bluff 4-b the flop. He’ll prob just fold his air 99% of the time. I think you’re better off repping a weaker 99-QQ hand and hoping he bluffs/valuebets on river.
I think he’s more likely to call a bet with Kx than bet himself when checked to, for the reason that hero bet-called the flop OOP. I guess in this case it’s important to know what an average high stakes tournament grinder typically would do.
If you have AK or AA would you not bet turn? My first reaction was to over-bet shove and hope he spazz calls with Kx (or even QQ) that he pot controlled the turn with or calls with 4x. I could be easily convinced a small bet or check-call is the best play.
While not impossible, I think it’s pretty unlike villain is raising flop with QQ, and if he does, I doubt he’s going to bet/call. There’s no draws he can put us on, so we’d have to be megaspazzing.
If he has 4x, we’re stacking him regardless of what we do.
Kx is the one hand that jamming flop might win us a larger pot vs, but that’s also not a guarantee – even with KQ, if hero jams flop, villain cannot be happy with his situation. I think its best to keep his range the widest, and assume that we’ll still win a decent pot vs Kx, stack 4x, but also give us a chance to win bets vs his air, which shoving won’t.
It’s not obvious why he would want to raise the flop with a king, and it’s really hard for him to have anything really strong, so when we flat the flop I think our range looks better than his. When he checks back the turn, he’s either got some showdown value (but then why the flop action?), has given up or perhaps he picked up the draw.
I think it’s going to be hard to get much value out of him, so I’m very tempted to ship and see if he can talk a marginal made hand into a hero call.
This is actually pretty interesting and something I hadn’t considered.
I think i’d prefer it more vs a random than a tighter reg though – just because it’s so hard to imagine us just 3-bet shipping K44 with nothing.
That being said, because its so weird to imagine us shoving K44 for value, and given we have a Team PS logo, there is a chance he levels himself into a call.
I think I’m more prone to a nice value bet, like 5-6K. It seems to me with his turn check, villain has showdown value with his hand and it might be tough to get away from so instead of giving him an easy call of 3K I want to get the most I can. I really wish we’d have bet the turn so that we’re less polarized on a river shove, unless we feel villain would see it as spewie, I just don’t think so most of the time.
I too am talking myself into a flop three-bet on the aforementioned grounds; would you just call the flop raise with QQ-88? Would villain think that you would?
As played, I’m not sure the numbers quite work out for bet small/call spazz. Your oddly samll “bet small” is going to scream of wanting to induce, especially with your avatar. If you had 3000 more I would be more inclined.
I think we should have either clicked it back on the flop leaving a PSB and then jammed the turn.
The c-bet then flat on the flop looks really strong. With no draws on the flop and it unlikely that we have a 4 (even though we do) I think villain is going to put us on AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, KQ type hands.
With him checking back the turn he could do with his entire range since if he’s bluffing and giving up there’s no reason to bet and now the only draws are unlikely straight and back door spade draw. So if he had either KK or 4x there’s no reason to bet since we’re left with a little over a PSB on the river.
We’d like to know if he’s going to hero call more or bluff more on the river. I’d feel pretty good that we have the best hand and we need to somehow get the rest of the money in. Betting 3750 trying to make it look like he has fold equity is what I’m thinking we should do with the intention of calling any bet on the river.
I wish I had more time to think about the hand but I’ve been extremely busy at work.
I’m assuming I’m good and up against a K. I’ll shove to make it look like I’m bluffing. Earlier streets: I think you have to check the turn. I don’t think a bet there looks weak.
Maybe on the flop re-raise him the minimum and see if that will get him to shove over you?
Starting preflop your raise was small so I don’t think he slowplay anything big (AA,KK,AK) with these effective stacks cause the good odds for blinds to call (only if he expect a squeeze from them). So his raise looks more as information raise because its difficult to represent something strong and your range, to his eyes, look wide. One more reason to believe that he didn’t slowplay preflop is his turn check. I think he bet the turn because your bet-call looks like you have something…
And here is the point… How your range look.. I think he thought (and may be me in his place) you rare have a 4 and if you had KK you check… So your only big hand to bet was AA and hope a call from a king or a pair. And he raise you… Now, after this thought about your hand, may be a reraise all-in (a strong move) gave him the illusion of rebluff and a call from him?
After turn checks its difficult to bluff you because he expects you to call with any hand you call at flop or raise him… So I prefer a small, like probe, bet for thin value (from something like 88-99) or induce a shove as a bluff or from something unexpected strong (like 77)…