What’s Your Plan? Flopped Pair and Draw: Results

Judging from the number of comments, folks found this WYP less compelling than someone. That’s to your credit, because as many commenters advocated, I believe folding the flop is correct. Dangerhorse explains why:

I would probably fold although the pot odds are enticing and your hand (a pair and a draw) superficially seems very strong. This is a super wet board and a good player should not be leading into three opponents without something very substantial. I put him on KQ, AQ and stronger. If you raise all-in, I don’t think he folds much. I also don’t think you have the full 13 outs that a pair-and-an-OESD normally does.

Assuming you call, if your draw comes in, with an ace or a nine, it’s going to be a super-scary board, and it’s going to be tough to get paid off, especially being out of position. On top of that, your opponent will often also have a king, so you may well chop even if your draw comes in – or lose to AK.

Not all pair + draws are created equally. On a board like this, where so many draws are likely, it matters a lot that you have the worst pair and are drawing exclusively to non-nut hands. Out of position in a multi-way pot with action from a good player in early position, you can’t afford to treat this as a strong hand.

Against a range of {TT+,AQs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,8d7d,AQo+,KJo+), Hero has about 26% equity. Adding in 99 and AJ, which I think Villain is more likely to check, gets us up to 30%.

Moreover, this flop smacks Villain’s range, and it’s not a board he’s betting light into three players. This means we can’t expect much fold equity by check-raising. Kordolius argues that, “the flop hits our range well too, and in his eyes we may represent better hands than we have.” I struggle to think of any high-equity hands Villain would fold to a check-raise. The fact that this flop hits our perceived range well ought to make Villain less likely to bet hands that can’t stand hear in the first place.  I think getting all-in on the flop would be a big money-loser.

Calling is not much more appealing. The immediate pot odds require Hero to have about 28% equity to call, which as we’ve seen is close. However, as Dangerhorse argues, there are significant reverse implied odds attached to drawing out of position to non-nut hands. With such a transparent draw, Hero can’t count on getting money in as a big favorite when he hits. Villain’s range also includes enough flush draws and high-equity made hands that bluffing diamonds won’t prove overly profitable either. In short, calling the flop would be roughly break-even if we were faced with an all-in bet, but on balance we’re likely to lose more than we make on future streets. Best to get out now.

This raises the question Georgios poses: “Preflop the odds to call are great (almost 7 to 1) but you never thought to fold? Isn’t [this] a trouble hand vs three player[s,] one of them early pos raiser tourney pro? Isn’t [this] a reverse implied odds hand?”

Yes, which is why we have to proceed carefully post-flop. The nice thing about getting really good pot odds is that you can afford to cherry-pick only the most profitable spots. As long as you’re disciplined enough to get away from a deceptively pretty hand in a spot like this, I think it’s OK to peel pre-flop with what is admittedly a dangerous hand.

Even with this flop, I can imagine some scenarios where I wouldn’t check-fold. If the flop checked around, I’d feel a lot better about putting money into the pot on the majority of turns. I’d also feel better about calling the flop if the last player to act bet at it, rather than the early position raiser. Then of course there are other flops and other scenarios where Hero’s hand would have better equity. It’s just a matter of knowing how often they will come around and comparing that to the price you’re getting to see the flop.