Three Barrels, King-High

Villain had high Attempt to Steal and post-flop aggression. I debated 3-betting, since I’m well ahead of his pre-flop range, but I didn’t want to fold to a 4-bet, and I think getting it in pre is kinda light. It’s probably slightly +EV, but I hate giving away the advantage of position by just shoveling all the money in immediately. I’d say I was able to achieve a better outcome:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 215 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 20 Ante (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 (t6200)
MP2 (t4885)
MP3 (t18909)
CO (t8649)
Button (t9197)
SB (t18572)
Hero (BB) (t8618)
UTG (t4020)
UTG+1 (t10725)

Hero’s M: 17.95

Preflop: Hero is BB with K♣, Q♣
7 folds, SB bets t400, Hero calls t200

Flop: (t980) 2♣, A♣, 9♠ (2 players)
SB bets t400, Hero calls t400

Turn: (t1780) 10♥ (2 players)
SB bets t600, Hero calls t600

River: (t2980) 2♠ (2 players)
SB bets t1400, Hero calls t1400

Total pot: t5780

Results:
SB had Q♦, J♠ (one pair, twos).
Hero had K♣, Q♣ (one pair, twos).
Outcome: Hero won t5780

We know that at least early in the hand Villain’s ranges are really wide. He’s opening a lot of hands pre-flop and betting this flop with almost everything. The trouble is that most steal-happy MTT players aren’t good at balancing all that bluffing with appropriately wide value ranges. I’m not even sure he’d play AK this way, let alone anything less. That makes it very hard for him to have a value hand. Add to that that my hand looks a lot like a busted draw, giving him incentive to try to bluff-catch his medium strength hands, and I think we’re looking at a very polarized range here. Of course it’s a hell of a lot easier to have air than two pair, so call call call!

1 thought on “Three Barrels, King-High”

  1. I don’t know why you would think he wouldn’t play AJ this way, much less AK, but that’s not to say that you aren’t correct that he is way more polarized on the river than the board texture would suggest re blind versus blind. More interesting to me is how terrible his river bet is, especially on this particular river.

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