Villain is a decent player on the tight side of TAG, 18/15 pre-flop with a 33% Fold to Flop Continuation Bet over a sample of about 200 hands. Don’t have much idea how he views Hero.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($266.50)
Hero (UTG) ($206.40)
MP ($80)
CO ($200)
Button ($482.95)
SB ($261.25)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10♠, K♠
Hero bets $6, 1 fold, CO calls $6, 3 folds
Flop: ($15) Q♣, 8♠, 4♦ (2 players)
Hero bets $9.65, CO calls $9.65
Turn: ($34.30) J♥ (2 players)
Hero bets $24.45, CO calls $24.45
River: ($83.20) A♠ (2 players)
What’s your play and why? Leave your thoughts in a comment and I’ll post again Friday morning with results and my own opinion.
1.Fold pre, 2.bet 75 on river
1. But it’s sooooooooooted! Seriously I show a profit raising this UTG at a 6-handed table.
2. What’s your reason for choosing this amount?
I’m tempted to check-raise here. Villain’s range that calls two barrels would often value-bet this river (AQ-QJ, sets).
Overbet shove would be my second choice. But I think villain folds too often.
1) never open folding k10 suited in a 6max as suggested above.
2) villian has a lot of two pair and set combos in his range.
The ace is a scare card…but should be a scare card for OUR
Hand in the villians eyes. I think I check in this spot
To induce villian to value bet worse.
He cant ever put you on your hand as you have played it….
and has shown
Strength by calling on two streets.
side note: against more aggro oppenents I would put out a
25-35% pot bet on the river to like a blocking bet..to induce
Him to raise.
Final answer: check-shove
I think this is a good spot to overbet shove on the river.
Villain has shown a lot of strength calling two streets and as already stated in a previous post, I doubt he ever puts us on K10 here.
I don’t like check/raising because I think he checks back too often and while betting small is certainly a very good option and in no way a mistake, I think he too rarely shoves on us for us to make max value with the play.
If he does have the strong hand that we feel he has (pair, two pair, sets), why not do the betting for him and make it look bluffy on top of it? Overbet shoving is obviously very polarized but since he never puts us on the nuts here, he should call with his value range (top two, sets) that we beat + his bluff catchers (bottom two, top pair/strong kicker).
I’d bet $55.35 in tempo, continuing how much you bet the last two times relative to the pot. I think he has something by calling twice (would be good to know how he’s played turn when he’s called that 33%) so probably would get paid off quickly if he has something, and leaves enough behind that he might bluff raise all-in if he has nothing.
If we check, we could get him to turn JT into a bluff. We could get him to value bet AJ, QJ, 88, 44. We maybe lose a little value with KQ/QT, but I think he folds those hands a lot to a big bet anyway. And if we CRAI, that could look like us getting fancy with nothing, and he could call with QJ, since our range would be awfully polarized.
If we bet small, we get paid off by AJ/QJ maybe KQ. Maybe he raises JT/J9, turning it into a bluff. He probably raises 88, I don’t know if he calls or raises 44. But I think we get at least as much in from 88/44 by checking as we do by betting small. The problem here is that a blocking bet only makes sense if a draw came in, and it’s hard to imagine we’d be scared of an A unless we had KQ or maybe QJ in which case check-calling makes a lot more sense to me.
If we bet standard (~55) I think the above paragraph stays true, with fewer bluff raises and fewer light calls.
If we shove, our range is basically AA/QQ/JJ/KT and air. He doesn’t ever have any hands that can beat our value range, I don’t think, so it’s all about how he perceives us. It would be basically twice the pot. So he’d need to think we were bluffing a lot (~40% of the time) to call correctly. I doubt that.
So I guess based on above we check. But I’ll be sick if he checks back QJ or AJ.
This is not a fold pre for foucault at 200nl with the only short stacker in MP. Might be a fold for other Heroes.
70% CHECK,
25% bet 50$- for impression of blocking bet,begging value value or just stupid bluff sh.t,
5% shove
I’d go for a check-raise. The way the board ran out, I think most hands that will call a bet will also bet when checked to. If villain has 1 pair it’s really unlikely you’ll get a call if you bet. Hero raised UTG and triple barreled on a board that hits his range really hard, so in my opinion villain should fold KQ and that’s the strongest 1 pair hand that makes sense.
So he either has one pair and checks it back, but he wasn’t gonna call a bet anyway or he has a set (somewhat unlikely but possible) or just made two pair and will bet when you check to him. He’ll probably bet/call his sets and maybe bet/folds two pair.
There are two interesting alternative lines: One is to make a big bet yourself, like 95 and let him call with aces up. It has the downside that he might just flat with a low set as well, but two pair is much more likely anyway and he’ll probably call you down with AJ/AQ. Whereas if you go for a c/r he’ll probably bet ~60 with those hands and he might bet/fold so you lose some value.
Another line would be to underbet to induce. Bet like 1/3rd pot and make it look like a blocking bet with AK and let him raise. The advantage of that play is that he might sometimes call this bet with KQ, the disadvantage is that he might just decide to flat the bet with AJ/AQ and you lose a lot of value. This line probably works better against an aggressive opponent.
So I’d say c/r>overbet>>>>>>>>>underbet.
I think for NL200 standard bet 65-70. We do not need to worry particularly about balancing on such a wonderful villain to bluff the river. Here, people often turn made hands into bluffs (JT, J9, 89), but on the NL1000+ check would be better, otherwise we will be very hard to cope with its partners in such terrible river.
my guess is that he has q-10 or q-k, some kind of one pair type hand… anything better and he would have raised on the flop or turn with such so many draws going on… he could also have a smaller flush…
i would bet close to pot size, and hopefully he’ll here call thinking i wouldn’t be betting a completed draw with a-k etc… and if he has a smaller flush, he’ll call for sure, and maybe even raise…
Hero doesn’t have a flush – flop is rainbow (Q is a club, not a spade 😉 ).
I’d bet $62.25 here and hope to get paid off by a medium strength hand or get raised by his strong hands. Seems like Villain may have a good bluff catcher here, given that he’s called two bets. If he’s a decent player, he knows that there’s a good chance he has to call a big bet on the river, so I don’t think he’s seeing the river with anything that will outright fold, but he may very well check back a hand that he thinks may win but can’t face pressure of a raise. In other words, there’s more risk of losing value when checking than with betting. I think he’d raise with any hand that he’d bet with, and call any pair or better hand he’d check with.
It’s too bad we don’t know what Villain thinks of hero, because I feel the bet size could be better perfected if we had seem him snap off bluffs or be willing to call down light during the session.
This is the first WYP I’m participating in. I love these threads.
I’m torn on how to proceed. Being out of position really hampers a hero’s ability to extract. My two favorite options are to check-shove and to make a small bet that appears like a blocking bet to induce a raise (over which I would shove). The benefit of the blocking bet is that if villain just calls, at least we get something. But his call on the turn suggests he has a hand he really likes. I’d expect him to bet for value if checked to on the river, so I’m inclined to go with check-shove.
Also, have a happy Thanksgiving!
Jam, flop was super dry so he has to have some kind of pair, likely Qx. Villain knows that you know the ace is a scare card and that you may be trying to push him off a Q.
Or, just bet 67 or something if you don’t think he’ll call a shove with a Q. Honestly don’t see check raising as an option, I don’t see any hands he has that can call it (except T9 which will get it in anyway) nor do I think he gets to the river with any air that needs to bluff.
I’m with Supersytron, overbet shove the river to get called by top of opponent’s value range and maybe even by bluff catchers as well depending on how opponent perceives us.
First of all we should determine his preflop coldcalling range as exactly as possible.
Given that he is a tighter player: JJ-22,AQ,Ajs,Jts and sometimes (QK,Kjs,Qjs,T9s,98s)seem to be possible.
Hands like AQ or Ajs will get coldcalled some of the time and the other times he will 3 bet those.
That shows that villans coldcalling range is dominated by pockets and includes decent suited connectors as well.
On the Flop: without further information, i assume that villian is always flatting when he wants to continue.
Range after calling Flop(number of possible kombinations):
AQ(up to 12),KQo(9),Qjs(3)88(3),44(3),JJ(6),TT(3),99(6), Jts(3),T9s(3),
Topair: 24x
Pocket jj-99: 15x
Set: 6x
Gutshot+backdoor flush: 6x
Toatl of 51 Combinations.
Turn after calling: AQ(12),KQ(9),QJs(2),JJ(3),T9s(3),Jts(2),88(3),44(3)
Total of 37 Combinations.
River, when we bet (65$) and get called: QJs(2), AQ(9), = 11 combinations out of 34 (33%)
EV bet (just called)= 0,333*65$ = 21,67$
River, when bet and get rasied: JJ(3), T9s(3), 88 and 44 (each 3)= 12 Combinations out of 34(~33%).
Ev bet/call= 0,333*165$ = 55$
Ev river-bet Total = 55$ + 21,67$= 76,67$
Ev when Check/shove(assuming he always bet/calls AQ+) : 21/34 Combinations = 62%
=0,62*165$= 102$
It becomes clear how many information are needed to maximize or Expected value, beginning with preflop ranges. 200 Hands is very little but better than nothing and based on that you make your dicisions. To make better assumptions we need to know how much villian is folding to turn an river barrels and how he views hero.
What does Hero do, when the River is:
K,
2(blank), or
T
??
I have to add, that villian should only bet river for value if he plans to call it of, because all hands eexcept for T9s are bluffcatchers, an hero basically has no hand to c/c.
Agreed. Which is why I think he doesn’t do that enough for us to rely on him betting. A lot of his hands can’t bet/fold so he might just check behind too often for us to make a check/raise profitable.
When I first read the question my instict was to just bet like 60. However, after thinking it over, this does seem like a pretty good spot to c/r. There’s just so many strong 2 pair hands or stronger in his range right now, that I think he’s betting a lot when he’s checked to. The fact that he’s reasoanbly tight and you opened UTG also means that he dosen’t have many Qx hands that aren’t 2 pair (KQ) being the exception.
I disagree with $Strate that villian should only be betting here if he plans to call it off. As you’ve said before there’s nothing explotiable about b/f the bottom of your range.
Problem is, do we get his whole stack when we’re check/raising? probably not. We just get the amount he decides on. I’m very curious about Andrew’s answer but as I said before I think overbetting the pot is good here. But then again that might just be me always being on the lookout for spots to overbet! 🙂
I think shipping 160 into an 80 pot on a board that hits villains UTG range really hard looks even stronger than c/ring. It’s very tough for hero to get to the river with no showdown value and I’m sure villain doesn’t expect hero to turn KQ or KK into a bluff by shoving 2x pot. I think I might fold bottom set to a 2x shove but I’m probably calling a c/r with it. It’s just tougher to fold for villain when he’s got a lot more money in the pot.
Oooops just realized you weren’t talking about shipping. I think I read it in some other posts. A smaller overbet is definitely an interesting option.
yea, my original post mentioned overbet shoving but then i realized it’d be 2x pot. however a properly sized overbet i think works well here.
PS: well done Andrew for running a courteous and civilized forum. If this were 2p2 many of us would have called each other names already! 😉
This does seem like a really clear spot to check raise all in. There are a few wrinkles, like how does villain play QJ? If he would raise turn with it and/or not value bet the river if checked to, then check raising all in would lose some appeal. Villain presumably has a lot of sets in his range, not needing to raise any set on the flop, and protection being of small concern on the turn. We don’t want to risk these sets just calling the river if we bet. That’s a big big issue.
Let’s break it down.
1. Villain isn’t going to call a river bet or bet himself with hands like TT/99, QT, JTs, and probably KQ. With no history there is no reason to expect him to hero call with KQ and he certainly isn’t betting it himself. These hands fall into the category “wont bet if checked to and wont call a bet” or WNBWNC.
So almost all the hands stronger than the set WNBWNC seem to me to fall into the “will bet if checked to/wont raise if bet at” category. 44, AQ, AJ, 88, QJ, T9s, JJ, QQ, will all presumably bet when checked to, with the possible exception of QJ if villain is scared money. All will have a hard time folding to a check-raise, with exception of QJ or AJ. But not all of them will raise the river if we empty the clip. I would not be surprised if villain’s raising range on the river is 88, JJ, QQ, T9s, if not JJ, QQ, T9s. But his bet/call range on the river is potentially AQ, 44, 88, JJ, QQ, T9s, and maybe even AJ. Villain is going to have a much easier time betting all his strong hands when checked to than he is raising when bet at, because it looks like hero’s range is bluff catchers, whether it be a KQ that didn’t like the river, or an AT that did but can’t bet for value.
So check raising all in gets more value from his range than bet/calling. Does it get more value than overbet shoving? I have to think so. Again, the logic is similar, villain is going to be more prone to bet AJ when checked to than call an overbet shove with it, likewise for AQ, and 44. Villain would think it a sin to not bet 44 when checked to on the river, but could easily give pause when facing an overbet shove.
Basically those hands that aren’t strong or are very strong are not our concern. JJ,QQ,T9s, and TT, QT, KQ, don’t figure too much into this equation. It is the hands that are clearly strong enough to call a river bet but might not be strong enough to raise. Remember this is all put through the prism of Andrew raising under the gun. Betting river here to have AQ not raise is a disaster if AQ would clearly bet when checked to (it would) and especially if AQ would bet/call when check raised all in (it will sometimes, 44 will a lot). And I have to think the bulk of villains river range between the strength of JJ and KQ abide by this rule.
I like a CRAI as well.
It’s 1/2 NL so its more likely he makes a poor river b/c with 2 pair than vs a 5/10 reg.
Also, hero is a PS online team pro, and I think that makes unknowns at least slightly more likely to call a CRAI than to b/f. You’re sponsored = they call more :).
To address people who say ‘KQ checks back’ – yes you are right, but there’s also no guarantee KQ calls a river bet if hero bets. This is the worst river card in the deck for KQ, and while it does give hero license to 3-barrel with pretty much any hand worse than AK he got here with, there’s not much air in hero’s river range…and given that this ace make AQ 2 pair, it’s not a card hero is going to bluff 100% of the time.
It’s actually an interesting discussion whether villain should valuebet 2 pair here. I think if you check, he will bet them, because he can put you on a hand like AK or AT and hope to get paid off.
If villain manages to have a worse flush, or straight or whatever it doesn’t matter what we do, but I do think we make the most vs 2 pair by check/shoving on avg.
Seems most people are between check/shove and shove. I think Foucault’s statement of “Don’t have much idea how he views Hero.” is key here.
If I see a random opponent shove OOP on this river at these stakes, I’m going to give him credit for strength a lot of the time and that strength beats a lot of my range. This is why I edge toward the check/shove. But I don’t think we necessarily have enough information to be certain.
But I lean less that way after reading people’s shove arguments.
Either seem fine to me id bet around pot or overbet or check. I dont like the underbetting because I feel that even though he is tad bit laggy I feel he has more value hands that would prefer to just show down for cheaper.
I feel he shows up with 1010 109 sets and two pair, since he flatted I dont think he has too many premium hands like AQ AK AA KK unless he got tricky which I doubt and I only see 2 of those betting for value. Personally Id go with the CR but I wouldn’t mind either I feel we aren’t getting paid off for either options to much but the times we do id rather just try to get max value. Please tell me he showed up with k10. It seems pretty even, bet and get called more often then none and check and get some value from him and raise and he folds a decent amount of the time.
I found this spot super tough.
To me it looks like you were betting ak, kq, kk, aq, the whole way so if you don’t bet river villain might get rather suspicious.
If V has a set or 10/9 I think the money is going in no matter what you do really.
V has exactly 200 so it looks like he just re-bought and might be slow playing for extra-value or might try and get you off kq/aq with a big bluff.
So I think I bet 55. If you bet 55 I think villain says to himself what can Hero call a shove with.
I agree there is probably a pretty good chance if you check V bets 40-60 but I think he folds to a check-raise a lot of the time realizing he got owned. I just don’t see what hands he has that beat your check-raise value hands (that wouldn’t shove over your thin river value bet) so I think V folds a lot to a c-r shove.
I found this to be the toughest spot yet. Can’t wait to see the answer.
Hello
Thank you for this new WYP.
I guess that the range for the CO’s call is something like that : [JJ-44, AQs-A6s, K9s+, QTs+, AQo-A8o, KTo+, QJo].
Now on the flop his calling range could be : [JJ-88,44, AQs, A8s, KQs, QJs, QTs, AQo, A8o, QJo, KQo].
On the turn the J improves few hands : [JJ,QJs,QJo] and only [TT, 99] can be thrown away.
On his range there is a lot of 2 pairs, top pair and sets.
I think that on the turn he will raise his top range and play the pot control with top pair.
His range could be : [AQo, AQs, KQo, KQs, QTs] on the river.
The river improves half of his range.
Andrew, I think it is difficult to represent a good hand for you with the ace on the river and I think it will be interpreted as a bluff.
So I think it is good to induce a raise on the river, if you bet 1/3 of the pot you can represent a blocking bet and let think your opponent that he has fold equity with a shove.
Just skimming some of the responses, how can people think we can induce a river raise from villain by emptying the clip when our range is utterly uncapped?
Villain is never going to think, “oh he bet once again, what could he have that could stand a shove?” Um, everything the board offers! On the river Foucault can have every set, broadway, and basically every reasonable two pair combination.
For what it is worth, I was thinking hands with blockers like AJ,QJ, KQ, 10-10, J-10 that think they are beat by AQ like hands are more likely to bluffshove to a50-80$ bet then call a check-raise. Though I don’t think they are very likely to do either very often.
Hero’s range here includes every possible strong hand, and it’s basically impossible for Villain to not have showdown value. That combined with the fact that Villain is on the tight side and the stakes are $1/$2 makes me think that it’s very possible that he’s simply never bluffing the river here no matter what we do.
The question then becomes how best to get value. There are a lot of very strong hands in his range (AQ, QJ, sets) that we want to get his whole stack if he has them, but that might just call if we bet on the river. If we check, he will bet these hands, and then be faced with a decision when we shove. However, he’s never betting a bare Q here, so we aren’t getting any other value by checking.
If we shove, I think that it’s more likely that he calls with the above hands then it is when we c/r, as they are very strong in a vacuum and there are a lot of reasons he can talk himself into a call, such as Hero being a “Pro”, and the fact that he was planning to call a bet anyway and a shove looks at least a little bit suspicious (Hero could have nothing and bluff shove the river scare card), whereas a c/r seems super strong I think (lots of strong hands in Hero’s range that could do this for value and seems like a weird line to take as a bluff here). Since Hero’s range is super polarized with a shove, it’ also possible we get value against a hand like KQ. It’s less likely that he calls against a shove than against a normal be with that hand, but we make more with a shove when he does call. That eliminates a bet that’s not a shove I think, since that play is definitely worse against the top of his range.
If he is going to find the fold with a strong hand either way, a c/r gets more value, but it gets no value from worse hands and is a play less likely to get his whole stack imho. So I would shove.
Interesting hand and interesting discussion!
I kept going back and forth on this one. It’s hard to say without more information. His low fold to cbet% leads me to think his range could potentially be wider than we’re building it. Of course on the turn that information doesn’t apply as much.
If he’s passive he may not value bet thinly enough for us to check on the river. Does he check AK? On the other hand there surely are a lot of hands in his range that he will value bet.
I like the idea of shoving the river but don’t know we’d get called enough. At least enough to make it more profitable than just betting $55 or so on the river.
Since his calling range is so similar to his value betting range, checking sounds good. There’s the small chance that he bluffs or decides to call our c/r.
I don’t know! Ready to be enlightened!
1.”Our range is utterly uncapped” is big minus to get value overall.
The small plus is that his range is utterly uncapped too.
We have mutual uncapped ranges.
2.We have his range aggressively sliced from bottom which is small plus too.
Turn and River makes certain that CO have decent showdown value,no air.
Turn and River opens the top of both ranges which is minus for our ultimate nuts to get value.
well, we can have the 4 combos of KTs that he can’t, and we can have top set and he can’t, and him having combos of T9s is far less likely than us having combos of T9s. So I would disagree with point 1 based on those things
Villain is not so comfortable position like you.
He does not see Hero pocket.
It is very possible that UTG wrongly exclude KTs from UTG opening range.
You see Hero pocket and you easily exclude KTs from CO flatting range.
I’m not really following all of your post. But we can exclude KTs from villains river range because if a 18/15 is calling KTs preflop, he is not floating with it on the flop versus an UTG opening range and continuation bet. If he even has a floating range (which his fold to cbet suggests he might), he has much better candidates, like JTs, for floating. So that’s an example of why he is capped and we are not, and an argument for not betting river because with a hand like AQ or 44 he might not raise.
How to translate general stat aggregate 18/15 of decent player to his CO flatting range vs super-loose UTG opener ?
Well you can approximately calculate as long as his flatting range is static and he disregard UTG openning range
Look Gareth I am decent HU player.I am poor 6-max very casual player.
This year I played 6-max(2/4) only once a week ago.
I was courius and I tried my best aganst bots which infested 6-max Ongame,Ipoker network.
My stat could be 18/15 sometimes. But if I realize that UTG opens 27s – I(CO) call with 27s.That’s all.
oh ok, think I understand you now. thanks
His perception of “Our range is utterly uncapped” is big minus to get value overall.
Your perception does not count so much to get value.
*Grunch*
The first things that came to mind were:
1. An Ace hit, what a great card to bluff at if I was just barreling with A high.
2. I have the nuts I need to check raise!
Since we’re not sure how Villain views us and we consider him overly Tagish I think we should bet something were we look weak and that we might fold to a jam.
If we check and he has a 1 pair hand that’s not an Ace there’s a good chance he’ll check it back.
If we overbet jam the pot I think he could fold each non 2 pair ace hands. (though I think he could only have QJ in that range.
If he has a set or straight (109, K10) and we put in a blocking bet he might think we’re trying to get value from 2 pair, 1 pair ace or even KK that we’re suddenly afraid of the Ace.
We have about 160 behind into a 83 pot.
I’d bet like 35 trying to make it look like we’re trying to get to a cheap showdown and pray he jams. Maybe that’s obvious thought. 🙂
I think are actions could turn out very different depending on how villain views us.
SuperLag: we should over bet jam river.
SuperRock: check, time clock raise all in. Even though from a Rock this would be obviously strong.
I start the analysis considering villains range. Preflop flatting vs. UTG position open could like: 22-TT, 87s, 9Ts, JTs, QJs, KQs, AJs, AQo.
Flop: I assume sets may well call this flop due to its dry nature. Of that range actually he might raise more often with 9T + bdfd, JT + bdfd than sets. He may also float those hands, but I think he raises more 9T and JT than floats as he has pretty little equity when OCs are missing. So is calling with sets, Qx, 87s + bdfd, 99, TT
Turn: J helps the defined range rther well giving him COSDs to go with MP and he can stand now the 2nd barrel well. He may assume you continue 2nd barrel with AK also when now picked more equity. When he calls I think we can still not narrow his holding as the range called flop may well just call the turn. I do not see much sense to raise sets or QJ in this dry board. J is also reasonable barrel card for the HEro as villain may think hero puts villain on MP+COSD hand and can be expected to fire many rivers as a bluff after villain only called f ja t. Neither does it make sense to raise other Qx hands KQ AQ.
River: Considering river is A villains draws miss and his holding is sets, QJ (2 pair), KQ, AQ (2 pair), and MP-hands like 99, TT. Hands that are goinging to call a river bet are: QJ, AQ, sets (may raise even) and hands that are folding to any bet 99, TT, also KQ most probably fold to any bet and these hands never bet them selves is checked to. Considering his range of holding, I am betting near the pot on river.
Alli
if UTG opens KTs you can include KJs at least.
What I’d be thinking at the table: Villain likely has exactly AQ or something he’s called down skeptically with (or that picked up a gutter) that will have a very hard time calling a third barrel. Given Andrew’s description, I think check-raising is better against both kinds of hands against this guy–I don’t see him checking AQ or often calling with 99.
I think some other posters here are overestimating how many hands this guy is calling Andrew with preflop. But on the other hand, I think other posters here figure to know more than I do about preflop ranges in 6-max situations.
I think villain (tight side TAG) he must respect your raise UTG. So after both calls in a dry flop and similar (dry) turn, on the river he has something strong [AQ,2pairs,set,str8(less likely)] or with showdown value [KQ,QT,TT,AK,AT (less likely)]. It is almost impossible to have bluffing range at river,and the A on the river is either a good bluffing hand for you(not reason to bluff for him) or good for UTG raise range and difficult to turn his showdown hands to bluff you out…
In case he is strong you’ ll go all in even you bet or check..
In case he has showdown hands I think he check after your check but may be he call a modest bet about 60% of the pot.. if you bet about 50 he have to call 50 to win 134 so he must be right about one time in three.. If he think you are vg and agrres player you have that bluffing percentage with good bluffing card as A.
Conclusion: a 50 bet is good for total villain range
Preflop, with his stats he has a small to mid pair or weak ace for him, most likely AQ. Just flatting the cbet on the flop is either a pair between 8 and Q or a set and possibly trying to trap with AQ. To call our turn bet his range is still the same imo since we still look weak and the jack was unlikely to help us in his mind. On the river, he folds to any value looking bet his one-pair hands but will call with AQ. Since he hasn’t bet, I doubt he bets to a check unless he has a set and a bottomish set will fold to a crai. I think he calls an overshove lead with any set since that looks weakest by us, with the Ace being a perfect card for our range since he doesn’t have an image of us and we played it like a neophyte with AK, so I think most value over time comes from an overshove.
The problem with overbetting is that it’s the one move that’s most likely to get Villain thinking carefully about how strong Hero really should be if he bets this river at all.
I think Villain is far more likely to make a mistake, based on the absolute strength of his own hand, if hero checks or makes a smaller sized bet.
His potential thought process against an overbet would be:
1. Hero’s bluffing range on the turn is weighted towards AT, AK, KT
Therefore:
2. On the river, Hero has few, if any, hands that can only win by bluffing.
Therefore:
3. Villain should mainly be considering how Hero plays his value range and showdown range.
4. Hero’s value range for an overbet on the river plausibly does not include {AK, AT} (showdown), or {AQ, AJ, or QJ} (thinnish value).
Therefore
5. Villain should strongly consider folding AQ, AJ, QJ, and 44 to an overbet.
Yeah this is an excellent point in my opinion. “The problem with overbetting is that it’s the one move that’s most likely to get Villain thinking carefully about how strong Hero really should be if he bets this river at all.” puts it perfectly.
And that sort of goes for the people who think shoving is good in general. There have been some comments like “villain will see a shove as super polarized.” Polarized between what and what? Usually the answer is nuts or air, but it is basically impossible for Andrew to have much air on this river. Simply because he is opening KTs under the gun doesnt mean he is opening 56s and 67s. But let’s say that he is. That is literally the extent of his potential air range, 56s and 67s. All other gutters made a pair or a straight. His highest equity turn bluffs are AT/AK/KT, all of which got there. Lower equity hands in his opening range like 22,33 villain would be foolish to consider that he is continuing to bluff with on this board to set up a river jam as a bluff. So the idea that Andrew can do anything polarizing with his river action is a mistake I think, since there isn’t enough air to represent.
His range is therefore weak showdown hands, medium showdown hands, and strong, nutted hands. It is likely Andrew would check JTs on the turn, but villain might not know this, and therefore he real range might literally only have strong to medium hands on the river, from KQ/AT to QJ/AJ to 44//JJQQ/AA to T9s/KTs. We just can’t represent air effectively no matter what we do. So we need to keep villains range to put in river money the widest. That is going to be by checking, because he is likely to value bet all hands he would have called a river bet with (assuming he folds KQ and calls/bets QJ) and then call the check raise with some hands he would not have raised our river bet with, like AQ/AJ and 44.
If villain thinks his own range doesn’t appear to have any bluffs in it, then he might feel there’s not a lot of value in betting QJ or AQ – can he really expect Hero to be check-calling with AT or AK given that villain would have to be bluffing to make this correct?
If hero bets then villain can at least convince himself that hero could be thin value betting and in any case he’s getting pretty tempting odds to call.
(This is assuming Villain doesn’t rule out Hero having a stronger hand than AQ when he checks. If he does rule it out then he can bet AQ thinking he is freerolling).
I feel like an 18/15 tag playing 200nl is unlikely to be able to think clearly enough with AQ to even consider checking back. Its going to be close with QJ too. But QJ really shouldn’t be a big concern of ours at least in terms of tipping the scales, since he should only have QJss and QJdd in his preflop range.
Yeah I have no idea what people do as default at 200NL in Villain’s shoes with AQ. But just psychologically, there is a barrier to Villain betting AQ when checked to, which is that he gives up his chance to close the action, and guarantee seeing Hero’s hand at showdown. He has to be at least a little bit worried that Hero is going to check-raise, and even if he is pretty confident Hero only does this with monsters, he might feel averse to bet-folding knowing that, having position, he has the option to check back.
I actually think there’s a decent chance he finds a fold with slow-played sets to a check raise, (and very good chance he folds AQ if he bets it). This is what he should do if he believes Hero’s check raise can only be for value.
But he can hope to get looked up by 2 pair hands if he himself shoves his sets over a smallish bet. So yeah, basically betting small appears better than check-raising in my opinion.
How to translate general stat aggregate 18/15 of decent player to his CO flatting range vs super-loose UTG opener ?
Well you can approximately calculate as long as his flatting range is static and he disregard UTG openning range.
If villain is decent and on the tightish side, we will hardly cause him to spew here since both ranges are pretty strong when we do bet rvr. If I feel creative I would make a $40 bet, completely mess up table dynamics and watch him implode during the nextt few minutes; hoping of course to capitalize on that later. Generally, I would just overbet whatever the usual amount I use since a C/R seems too strong.
Hmmm, The A looks like a great card for us given we opened UTG and barreled twice … we likely have at least a Q. We perhaps now have top pair and bet the turn having picked up a flush draw but I couldn’t make out the suits in the post to be sure of this. Either way, if we check, villain has to put in a big bet to take us off a Q or weak A or check behind figuring we’re checking with showdown value planning to check/call.
Given he probably calls behind with a relatively strong range on flop & turn (because we’re UTG and 33% is low sample size impaired), I think he’s only betting AQ+ on the river if we check so I want to bet for value and hope he that he is sometimes slow playing 44 or T9 & shoves. Maybe he shoves AQ too. Most often he just folds or calls with KQ. I bet $45 because he can think we fold AK,KQ to a shove based on remaining stacks and bluff raise KQ or whatever.
But I’m tired and not thinking straight. Did I mention I think he has KQ?