This week I’ve got a slight variation on the usual “What’s Your Play?” Villain is a TAG regular playing 18/17 with an 8% 3-bet over a large sample. He’s a small winner at these stakes but not very tricky or creative, just generally more of a mass multi-tabler than a deep thinker.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($685.70)
Button ($449)
SB ($402)
BB ($527)
UTG ($400)
Hero (UTG+1) ($434.35)
MP1 ($400)
MP2 ($412)
MP3 ($206.95)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J♠, J♦
1 fold, Hero bets $16, 4 folds, Button calls $16, 2 folds
Flop: ($38) 8♣, Q♠, J♣ (2 players)
Please leave a comment with both what you want to do on the flop and your general plan from there. How will you proceed on club turns/rivers, straightening cards, and blanks (for those who have trouble with the suits, it’s 8c Qs Jc and Hero has Js Jd)? I’ll post results and my thoughts on Thursday.
The standard plan.
Our Check flop mandatory.
The value bet is not alternative rather worse option.
Our check will look passive.
The mutualy perception is clear that the flop hits button’s range hard.
In case this is not the truth.The button will be motivated to bluff the flop with air.
The button will bet all nuts, air,draws.
The highly posibile and positive scenario is flop showdown.
We shove. We are going for broke.
This is just ~100 BB so it does not matter if button flopped higher set, str8,combo draws,etc.
Variant B
The button check back overall translates into weakness but blurs the picture and could complecate the situation.
The button(expert bluffer?) could have plans to execute spectacular bluff-shove on turn.
There are will be plenty of turn cards which opens top of his range-complete draws.
The bluff shove is wrong description.It is very likely that he will have some equity against our set.
Why do you say this flop hits Villain’s harder than ours? I agree that in such cases it’s better to check, but when possible I prefer to adapt my pre-flop range such that this isn’t so obvious. I have all sets, the nuts, and a few nut flush and/or combo draws in my range. Also overpairs though of course they are only marginal on this flop.
Check-shoving the flop is a pretty big overbet even if he pots it, which he probably won’t. What would be your range for that, sets+ and big draws?
Agree with everything exept your final conclusion “isn’t so obvious”.
This gist of my plan -It will be so fu.. obvious that it will be highly suspicious.
I called my plan the standard one.
Maybe my plan is silly(alot of assumption) but not the standart one.
I will say that such sh..t shove will be very unorthodox and suprising move .
Our multi-table opponnet is 2/4 reg who see you image via your stat and realize that you are competent,loose agro,maybe bully player.
Still he will not expect such nonstandart shove to his standard bet from you ?. -NO.-NEVER.
Even when he is not deep thinker such flop shove without preflop 3bet action had to get his attention.
When somebody makes a sh.t shove like this, he(she) wants to do it for a reason.
And I do not mean tilt.
What is your reason?
There are some chances he can answer such question incorrectly.
His answer:
It wouldn’t be a value bet, because foacoult knows that the such shove will NOT get called by any worse hands.
The reg could come to the conclusion that you want to make a his better hand to fold.
His better hand is strong combo-draws and sets.
He can narrow your hand to contain overpairs,just nut flush draw or weaker combo-draws.
Hey Andy,
Just my .02c, but you make an awful lot of assumptions about what the button is thinking/will do.
“The mutual perception that this flop hits his range harder than ours”. Personally I disagree with this statement, since hero has all nut combos in his PFR, and villain may not given he didn’t 3-bet pre. (QQ/JJ discounted)
Regardless though, I’m not sure why you think this is a mutual perception. How do we know that he thinks this flop is better for his range than our own? (In my example, I think this flop is better for the EP PFR’s range than my own BTN range, for example)
“In case this is not the truth.The button will be motivated to bluff the flop with air.”
Maybe, but do we even consider what he thinks of our checking range, and what his pre-flop calling range consists of? Villain has pretty tight stats pre, so he probably isn’t playing a ton of speculative hands that don’t have SD value. Sure he’ll have some hands that missed this board, but he’s not going to have a TON of combos that aren’t happy checking back (TT-77, Jx, 98, etc)
Also, hero’s checking range on this board, while often not nutted, does have some strong SD value, and no guarantee he’s just gonna auto-3 barrel into us because we checked.
“The button(expert bluffer?) could have plans to execute spectacular bluff-shove on turn.”
Why do we think this? We have no reason to suspect he just spews when we check. Villain is described as a marginal winner / mass multitabler – unlikely he elects to megaspew.
I think its good to have a plan for the hand, however I think this particular plan is a little too contingent on several pretty big assumptions about villains thought process that we just don’t have access to.
Chris when I was making this post I was focus on psychological aspects of my plan.
I admit my analitical hand analisis was lousy job-on fly and SI-FI.
I was still thinking more about previous blog post where Andrew takes advantage of standart lines (flush draw on the flop).
The previous most made me realize the Ev in habitual patterns and standards in poker.
I wanted apply this aspect to this hand by executing very no-standard line.
I apreciate your time. The hand analysis is not my strength.I take time and I will chew your comments.
Yeas I agree with your statement (QQ/JJ discounted).
I did this read on fly and I am very casual 6-max player.
I tell how I(HUSNG player) make preflop hand range read over long sample.
8% 3-bet over a large sample is not bliss.It is usefull but not Eureka!.
I guess that 8%() in 6 max give you the rigth to exlude polarization of 3b.
8% does NOT allow me to exclude the polarization of 3beting range.
3-bet data over a large sample means I can look inside the 3bet range versus effective stacks/BB.
This is my EUREKA!!!.
I could exclude or narrow default polarization method and 3b range used by my opponnet at the different stages of HUSNG.
I certainly agree w/ you that just because we know his range is 8%, we don’t know whether it’s polarized or de-polarized, what ranges he 3-bets vs hero given positions, remaining players, etc.
I’m just saying that, based on our read of other avg multi-tabling tags, he probably 3-bets QQ/JJ some % pre-flop. That doesn’t mean we can exclude them completely, but it does make it somewhat less likely he flopped a set on this board.
I think betting is superior to checking for many reasons here, but I do agree that him flat-calling pre-flop doesn’t mean he can’t have hit this flop hard. Many hands still do!
C-bet on the flop, (pot bet)
If the villain shove , we call .
Check-raise , maybe … But if the guy check behind , we add a free card, ad this spot , the board is very coordenated.
And dont believe this guy had in your hand better . Maybe a 88 99 TT , AJoff , ATs or AJs
I guess I would normally bet the flop but given that his plausible get-it-in range has at least 50% equity vs our hand maybe that’s not so good. Checking has the advantages of keeping his range the widest, controlling the size of the pot before we see the turn, and being somewhat deceptive.
If we Check-Call:
– He probably bets all hands that would have called a bet – KQ and AQ, big draws, 88.
– He bets some bluffs – e.g AT no clubs.
– If the turn is a club, we can still afford to check-call, because he might still bet all his non-club bluffs, and some of his worse made hands, and we still have outs to a disguised full house, with a decent amount of money left behind.
Some problems with Check-raising:
– He will fold hands that either could have bluffed later, or would make a 2nd best hand and feel compelled to call a bet.
– If he flats the check raise a lot of turn cards leave us in a tough spot with a lot of money committed to the pot.
I feel like our strategy against his draws should be to aim to maximise the number of occasions on which all the money goes in on blank turn cards.
I think this is what happens if we check call flop and check-shove blank turns, but only if villain can be relied upon to bet when checked to.
I think you’re on the right track in that we want to maximize how much money goes in before Villain hits his draw if he already doesn’t have the nuts. (910)
I think checking and hoping Villain is going to bet would be incorrect. We’re not sure he would bet all of his draws and it is possible that he might have 99/1010 for an under pair gut shot. In that case giving him a free card would not be great.
I think we should bet at least 30. (see my posts below) This allows us to setup a turn and river bets that allow us to get all the money in if we want to. This also bloats the pot and we’re OOP but our had has enough equity vs Villains continuation range to continue to the river if we want to.
It would be different if we had 1 pair hands (AA, KK, AQ, KQ, AJ) were we lose most of our equity as soon as the draws hit. Say we had AA with no club and the 3rd club hit that didn’t pair the board. We’re drawing dead vs a flush draw. Or if the 9 peeled the turn and villain had a 10 again we’re drawing to a chop.
We wouldn’t want to bloat the pot OOP with those types of hands where it will be more difficult to continue on bad turn cards.
Yeah I agree, it is probably optimistic to expect him to be betting a lot when we check to him. If he expects us to check AA or KK on this board then he is presumably less likely to bluff.
I’m not sure what to make of his preflop stats as regards whether he 3bets AK or QQ. Hero is UTG+1 in a 9-handed game so it’s not unrealistic to expect villain’s 3betting range to be highly polarized. Also, being on the button he doesn’t have to worry about over-callers and being out of position post flop.
start with a 2/3 psb flop, then check-jam all turns except for a 9 or 10 (any suit).
if a 9 or 10 turns, check-call turn and check-call unpaired rivers. donk shove paired rivers.
Are you check-shoving a club turn? Why or why not?
guess if he has seemed straightforward post then c/c. if he’s been aggro post, then check/shoving keeps semi-bluffs in your range and still has decent equity against his nutted hands
i would bet close to potsize on the flop since it’s a drawy board… get it in if possible on the flop…
if turn is blank, make a 65%ish bet and get it in if raised…
if turn is a club, or a 9/10, then check call, hoping for a paired river…
if river pairs, large bet/shove… river non pair blank, bet/fold, river is another club, consider folding…
not to say this is the best line, but it’s what i would do at my current stage…
If I read his stats right, he only calls 1% of the time and raises 17%,
about half of which are 3-Bets. If he’s only calling 1% of his hands,
it must be positionally (i.e. only on the button) or else it would be like
only 2 pocket pairs he calls with. So I’m going to assume he only calls on
the button and it’s with pocket pairs between 6’s and T’s and suited connectors.
Given that it looks like there is at least a 50% chance this board has hit his
range. We are ahead, but might not be ahead by alot.
Since he’s not a tricky/creative player, I’m assuming we’ll only get called if
he has a piece of the board. The only problem is we won’t know which cards will
help him and which won’t and we’ll be out of position.
Being OOP sucks here, if I was IP I’d bet pot, then check back turn scare cards
and evaluate calling on river. Here, I’m a bit worried about betting pot,
then having to check and fold most turn scare cards. A chicken line I’m thinking
of taking is betting $16, betting 1/2 pot on most turn non-scare cards (checking the rest)
and checking all scare cards (and calling most of his bets), and then same on the river.
Probably not the best line, but I’m just trying to keep the pot small OOP.
I’m not sure I understand you’re first paragraph. You’re assuming that he calls something like 4% of hands on the BTN and close to 0% in other positions? Don’t mean to sound skeptical, just want to be sure I understand what you’re saying.
I’m saying that if he’s is only calling 1% of the time (and that’s true, i.e. sample big enough), then that is a very tight range if he does that from multiple positions (like btn, co, hj, sb and bb). If that is the case then he’s probably only calling to set mine, but if the 1% calling is only on btn and co then it’s a wider range that includes suited connectors in addition to pocket pairs. Maybe I’m off on this, but that’s what I reasoned looking at the stats. Don’t you get a pocket pair like 7 to 7.5% of the time? So 1% calling would be two specific pocket pairs if from all positions; four if from half the positions. Do you have his stats specific to the button?
It could be some combination, right? Like he never flat calls BTN vs. CO but has a wider range for calling on his BTN when UTG+1 raises? I mean I doubt he ever does anything but call if MP1 opens and he is in MP2 with 88.
yeah, that’s right, didn’t account for that and that he prob. never limps and doesn’t face a raise all the time. But in any case, I still think it holds that in order for him to have a wider range that people are crediting him for, then it must be wider situationally (e.g. btn vs. utg as you said), to justify that based on his stats.
Defintiely have to bet the flop. Sizing-wise, I think I like 3/4 pot rather than a weak lead to maybe induce a raise on a combo hand but it’s close. Obv getting it in on any flop reraise.
If he just calls flop, I guess I lead a non-club for 1/2 pot and check-call a club. Sets you up for around a pot-size bet on the end. If I lead and he shoves, I call obv. I’m not really worried about him flopping a straight and would pay him off for that regardless.
If there is a club turn and a blank river, I check-call absent a timing tell or something. And hate it. This is the hardest decision. Live I would consider bet-fold more here.
So sort of what Hans said, but I don’t think the stacks are right for bet-fold on the end regardless assuming bets on every street.
Why do you say “definitely have to bet the flop”? According to Andy’s comment, we should check even the top of our range because this is a better flop for Villain’s range than for ours. I’m not saying he’s right but I don’t know that betting the flop is a trivial decision.
Not betting flop is a disaster for way more reasons than checking flop could be considered good, esp vs described villain.
This flop does not hit villains range harder than hero’s. That really doesn’t make any sense, since hero has all nut combos in his range + can even remove some of the weaker holdings that BTN may have like 45s, 22-44.
Villain can have all nut combos in his range, but given villain 3b stat good chance he 3-bets QQ/JJ pre.
Flop is a clear bet. I don’t normally defer to skalansky, but not betting flop is a pretty big FTOP fail.
OK, I didn’ mean to make the flop bet sound completely trivial. Hero’s rep for opening and c-betting is important, of course, and I’m only guessing at what Hero’s/yours actually is based on reading your stuff. IMO people overstate the whole “middling flop hits a button call harder than an early open” yarn; this should be a mild lean, not an absolute truth, against a good player, esp. online. Pretty much what Chris M says. I’m gonna need some convincing to believe we make more money by checking. Are we gonna get one bet out of 66 stabbing? What card do we want to see if it goes check-check? Just a blank, so we check again, and let him float-stab? Downside seems worse than this upside.
Interested in takes on turn bet-fold issue live vs. online.
I haven’t the faintest idea.
To be honest, this is the kind of question that leaves me feeling that I have no understanding of this game.
First of all, putting this person on a range is very difficult as a result of his unusual stats. I can’t help but think that if this person really plays 18/17 over an adequate sample size, its virtually impossible that he flat-calls a lot of suited connectors here. If he calls T9s, he also calls JTs and 78s etc, and this already makes his flatting range much wider than 1%. I find it tough to believe that he doesn’t flat anything except from the CO and Button. Accordingly, I will slightly discount the suited connector portion of his range.
As for the hand a few things to note:
1) The range I am giving him here is TT-44, JTs,T9s,87s because with his stats I can’t see him having much else.
2)I don’t think he has off suit connectors and that makes this hand much easier to play, because the cards on the board pretty much rule out the chance that he has a flush draw and so I am not very worried about clubs.
3)We have this range crushed, but he is very unlikely to put in much money at all unless he has 88 or a straight.
I don’t like checking, because I honestly can’t see him trying to bluff with his pairs or with JT/89. He will probably fold the majority of his range to a bet, but most of that range is never really paying us much anyway.
I also like betting and getting it in here because he will raise/get it in with 88 here and there are more combinations of 88 than T9s. This is a scary board and there is a substantial chance that his 88 hands will be scared away by a variety of turn/river cards. I think stacking 88 100% of the time is the most important factor in the hand because most of his range is way behind us and will not get out of line and give us money and there is no way we are going to get away if he does have a straight.
Therefore plan: Bet flop and get it in. If he flat-calls stick to the bet/get it in plan unless the board straightens, in which case I would check-call turn, and fold river if unimproved.
I’d bet 30 on the flop. Check call a pot sized turn straight/flush card and then pair up on the river to value/bluff jam! Amirite?
We can pretty much remove QQ from his hand as he’s playing 18/17 8%3b and surely would have 3b pre with that. I feel larger suited Aces would also not be in his range as I’m guessing he’d raise those also. (AK, AQ, AJ?, A10?)
Hands that aren’t straights already with a 10 or 9 in it would give him the most equity against us. A10, K10, Q10, J10, A9, K9, Q9, J9, 108, 98. If we consider double gappers with 10 high unplayable even suited from villain.
I’m not sure there’s a ton of hands villain can have that aren’t combo draws that can continue.
If he’s a MMT’er as described we can throw AA, KK, QQ, JJ and maybe even 1010 out the window as he didn’t 3b. I’m not sure he flats with A10, K10, Q10 from an UTG+1 raiser.
So a range of maybe:
Board: 8c Qs Jc
Hand 0: 13.46% {TT-77, KcQc, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c}
Hand 1: 85.46% {JdJs}
If we take out the PP’s and just leave him combo draws:
Board: 8c Qs Jc
Hand 0: 50.81% {KcQc, QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c, 8c7c}
Hand 1: 48.74% {JdJs}
We’re a 49/51 dog.
Pre flop: 434 eff stacks – 16 = 418
Pot 38
Flop I’d bet 30: 418 – 30 = 388
Pot 98
Turn non-flush I’d bet 90
Turn straight card I’d check call a pot sized bet
388 – 90 = 298
Pot 278
River all draws missed – check and hope he bluffs
River is a possible straight no pair – check call
River is a possible flush no pair – check, fold to river jam
River pairs and all draws hit – jam and hope he has a flush and not a straight to call with.
Also if your looking to get it in by the River if the flop gets checked through you’ll have a very hard time getting all the money in ahead.
That’s the reason you should bet the flop and turn.
I think another thing to consider is our perceived hand range also to Villain. If we bet the flop I think he can take out AA, KK, TT, 99, AQ, KQ as we don’t really want to build a huge pot OOP against such a wet board with one pair/gutter hands.
If we’re UTG+1 raising pre and betting the flop into such a wet board vs a button caller I think that narrows are range down to nut flushes with overs and sets although maybe not 88.
If on the turn we get a non-club straight card(9 or 10) and lead out again it would be pretty hard for us to have a straight. Which I’m guessing if we lead again he could raise pretty much all of his holdings.
If the turn comes a non-straight club and we lead out it’s very possible that we have a flush and it will be pretty hard for Villain to continue with non-set, 2p, non A or K flush hands.
If the turn comes a straight/flush card (9c or 10c) and Villain happens to have the AcX again I think he could jam with all of his holdings since there wouldn’t be a lot of combinations for us to have a flush. KcJc would be our best flush and I’m not sure how often we UTG+1 raise that hand.
I feel like I need a whiteboard to come up with all the different variables and choices we might make. I feel like all my thought process really ends up me clicking buttons and closing my eyes. 🙂
First of all today is your name day here in Greece so i wish you the best to your life…
To our hand now…From villain stats (i m not so familiar with HUD stats so inform me if I’m wrong) he did few calls… So his calling range is narrow to good but not reraising hands and maybe occasional slowplay big hands (AA-QQ, AK)… It’ s difficult, if not impossible, to call with truble hands [AT-A2, KJ-K9,…] but we have to count some suited of them…
I strong believe Hero has to bet this flop after hit it so hard and be so dangerous and bet it strong (close to pot)… This flop hit Heros’ range so villain, in case Hero checks, identify this and will bet his strong hands and draws and check medium hands or draws for free card something very bad for our Hero…
So after Flop bet villain probably raise his strong hands [QQ,88,QJs,T9s] (from this range he may be 3-bet QQ preflop) and also with strong combo draws (fldr+gutshot, pair+fldr) [AcKc, AcQc, AcTc, QcTc] most of the time… In both cases Hero will go all-in…
The interesting case is when villain calls… With what?… Some draws (most of them combo that didn’t raise), some floats [AK with one club to take the pot at turn or semibluff in case turn is club] and weak made hands [AQ, AJ, KQ (not so likely as calling preflop), and may be with slowplayed AA,KK]…
If the turn is blank bet-call a shove is the best play. If it is a club or 9,T then if Hero bet villain will fold floats and weak hands and shove with made hands(flush, str8)..
if Hero check villain bet the made hands but also bluffs with floats.. so i think check call is better than bet.. If it’s Q,8 or last J slowplay is an option…
At blank river(after blank turn) or paired river his range has showdown value so a value bet is my opinion. At 9,T or club check-fold because his bluffing range is very small…
I think betting the flop ($30) is better than checking for several reasons. First, obviously we have a strong hand and want to build the pot, and we want to charge draws on this draw-heavy board. Second, I think checking polarizes our range quite a bit, so a bet keeps our range more open. I perceive villain’s range to be medium pocket pairs (66-99) and lower broadway cards (KJs, QJs, Q-10s, 10-Js, 9-10s). The flop hit this range pretty hard (if I’m any where close to correct in my assumption), so villain is likely to call or raise.
If villain raises my flop bet, I’m getting it in right there.
On the turn I’m check-calling any club, 9 or 10. I’m betting (2/3 to 3/4 pot) if a brick comes on the turn.
On the river, I’m shoving any non-flush or straight card. I think I fold if a fourth club comes, check-call if there’s 4 to s straight on board (which is why I play cheezburger stakes).
since i’ve been reading this blog, i have noticed that you would typically lead out with a c-bet in these spots, so checking doesn’t seem correct to me as he would be expecting a bet from you with your entire range of hands, even only 100~ bb deep. that said, with stack sizes and his not being “very tricky or creative” i would expect him to flat with a majority of weak-to-middle strength draw hands like 99, TT, 77, straight cards with no flush or pairs and 3bet his made hands and high-equity draws like sets, two pair and straight/flush combo draws with an over card. with that expectation, we can bet $25ish / get it in vs raise on the flop. if he flat calls, it opens our options up for the turn in that he will probably check any hand with some showdown value like a made pair on the turn and fire out with the majority of his draw hands that peeled and didn’t improve. i would also expect him to fire out with any hand that ‘got there’. i like checking any turn, and only shoving back non 9, 10 or club cards. if the turn is a club, 9 or 10 i think check calling is bad since i don’t expect him to give up on the river so calling off $65 or whatever is just handing him free money. if we can get the right price to draw to our boat then i think a check / call is acceptable. it’s weak, but check / fold is my line on turns that complete the obvious draws.
if he checks back the turn i am leading out non clubs, 9’s, and 10’s on the river for half-pot, and calling any raise he may make. it seems counter-intuitive that a non-creative player would take the river to bluff-shove, but since we aren’t deep and our prior read was that we are good against bricked draws, i’m sticking with it and calling off our stack. if the river is a club, 9 or 10 i will happily check / call his small value bets as our pot control on the turn helped us in this spot. i admit that this line will not maximize our value but to be honest, being OOP on a board this wet for a button flat-call range sucks, and it’s more important to me to preserve my stack against a dumb-hero play like bet / bet / bet than it is to win a small pot with a flopped monster against this spot. just my 2 cents though, i’m a fishcake anymore so maybe i’m way off.