Hero and Villain are heads up on four tables at Villain’s request. Villain bought in short at all four but promised not to quit no matter how big his stack got, and he’s been true to his word. He’s not a professional but has proven surprisingly capable. He is playing 71/60 with a 21% 3-bet and 49% Aggression Frequency. His c-bet % in 3-bet pots is 67%.
Hero is likely perceived as aggressive but good, have attempted some big bluffs and also some thin value bets. Hero has not folded often when in position on dry flops. He has taken stabs like this when checked to in the past, sometimes getting folds and sometimes not. Villain is the guy who made this call. Other than that there’s no history particularly relevant to this situation.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) ($2074)
BB ($1113.50)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K♦, J♥
Hero bets $20, BB raises to $66, Hero calls $46
Flop: ($132) 3♦, 5♦, 5♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $44, BB calls $44
Turn: ($220) 8♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $123, BB calls $123
River: ($466) 7♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero?
If you want to bet, please specify your size and your plan if raised. I’ll post my thoughts on Monday.
Since he c-bets so much I’m not sure what kind of hand he checks the flop and then calls. I don’t think it would be a very strong hand since he’d want to build the pot and it’s disguised because he c-bets so much. So my best guess is it’s an Ax hand with a diamond. I think he’d check that hand on the river whether the diamond is the A or the lower card, figuring you are going to bet the river more than you’ll call when he leads out. Given the board though, he could also be going for a bluff raise with other hands he could have that don’t have a diamond (or even a low diamond). If he’s going to do that alot then you want to bet to induce the bluff, but if he’s going to bluff raise GTO then you have to fold. I think you have the best hand more often than not, but since I’m not sure if I want to call the raise I’m going to check.
I think you can have AXDD so I doubt he re-raises without the A(d) or some weird full house.
I think betting like 311 (which looks like have value/half to induce) and fold to a shove.
Hope to get called with a smaller D or some other half bluff catcher hand (straight/five/99).
In game I check but that’s probably why I don’t play 5/10 🙂
$555/fold.
I like an overbet here a lot – for two reasons:
1) Villain’s range here is entirely bluffcatchers, and should polarize your range in his eyes. Despite seeing you make some thin v-bets, I doubt he expects you to overbet river with Qd or less (maybe not even Qd), so if he has a 44-66 holding (with or w/o a diamond) or even AK high, he might be tempted to call river given how you can show up with ATC bluffing this runoff.
Villain has also shown the propensity to hero call when you ‘rep thin’ given his Q high call.
2) You can’t get c/r bluffed. When you overbet, he simply can’t c/r bluff you for fear of bluffing into the nuts. Maybe this is flawed logic – but without the Ad he simply can’t c/r you as a bluff. He’ll be risky way too much bluffing vs a range which definitely has the nuts. It’s just less likely someone goes for a c/r bluff vs an overbet than it is that they go for a c/r bluff vs a 1/2-2/3 PSB.
bet $555 and fold??? won’t you add $330 for getting $1800??? 🙂
No, because when he c/r river, you have the best hand never.
I agree with you. When you bluff, you overbet, with a hand that is almost the nut I think you have to overbet.
I also have an another idea, only bet 10$ to induce a bluff raise, I never try this move but when I was thinking at the river’s move, I was looking for hands that can call you and I did not find a lot, so I wanted to find a way to induce our opponent a bluff.
Hey JN,
In order to bet (or overbet) – you don’t just want to pick that line because “sometimes you overbet bluff” – but instead because you expect that line to be the most profitable vs his calling range.
This is a spot, as others have pointed out, where despite having the 2nd nuts – it’s entirely plausible villain shows up with the nuts himself. If we had the Ad, and we thought it was likely for him to have the Kd – I agree overbet shoving is good – it looks bluffy, and he has a plausible strong value range to call with.
However, given that we’re not a gtd favorite vs his calling range – overbetting “because we bluff overbet sometimes” isn’t justification enough to overbet for value.
With regard to betting $10 to induce a bluff – I don’t think this is the ideal spot to do that for several reasons:
1) Villain can have the nuts. Betting to induce is great when you can discount the nuts from your opponents range / you’re fairly certain you’re ahead. This isn’t the case. If we bet $10 and villain jams – we’re now stuck in a tough place trying to figure out whether our minbet induced this jam, or if he just has the nuts.
2) Lots of villains range is bluffcatchers. Given our read, we think his c/c range can be quite light here – including hands like AKo unimproved (A high). If we just bet $10, he’ll probably just call with AK high hoping to be good. He’s getting like 30:1 pot odds, and he’ll probably be happy enough to call $10 than decide to turn his hand into a bluff.
Also, if he has a hand like AcQd – it’s a disaster to only bet $10 and have him just call, where he would have called a bet up to $400, or even more
Overall I think a bet of $300-400 is best for reasons others have stated.
This would be a weird line to take with a 5, overpair, or low flush that he made on the turn. His most likely hand seems to me to be a A high that he floated the flop with and picked up a diamond draw on the turn. This could be AxQd or AxJd, but it’s more likely that he has the Ad. It really looks like Hero has a diamond if he bets the river, so if Villain does have a one pair hand or a 5 but doesn’t have a diamond he should be able to fold, and maybe even with a diamond. However, his tendency to hero call makes this a little closer, especially since it probably makes him more likely to get stubborn on the turn with A high and a small diamond. In the end it’s a very similar situation to last time, in that Villain seems unlikely to have a worse hand that can call, but does have some better hands in his range, and Hero should be perceived as strong if he bets. I think it’s a check, but given the opponent it’s really close. Betting around $333 and folding to a raise would only be a small mistake if anything.
Given hero’s flop betsize I think its entirely likely villain c/c’s flop with QdJ, KxQd, and several other non A-high floats as well.
You’d have to stove it, but vs a range of Ad9x+ and Ax9d+, KxQd, QdJx and even some KxJd hands, I think you can find a profitable river value-bet here.
$333 may be better than overbetting, but I honestly don’t think it impacts his calling range that much, esp given previous tendencies.
Pretty much what I tried to say, just a bit more comprehensible.
Why do you say, “Villain seems unlikely to have a worse hand that can call”? He’s shown a willingness to make some big hero calls even in spots where I think my range is pretty strong. I also don’t see why “Hero should be perceived as strong if he bets”. I’ve done nothing so far but make too small stabs at the pot when Villain showed weakness. Why do I need a strong hand to bet a scare card river?
You did, however, call my actual play down to the exact bet-size!
i think shove 910 is best u have like 2x pot left and u r polarizing your range allowing him to make hero call(i dont think that he will ever play nut flush/boat like that given how agro he is, or AdAx), and u have history of making big bluffs (obv he calls u when u made some of them so he is aware that u r capable of making big bluffs) => one more reason to put him all in to look more like bluff so he can hero call, and imo he will call u often enough
P.S. only hand he might have is and played this way imo r quads but i think he is way too agro to check quads on flop and he knows that u know that he is agro so u float him and he is loosing value imo, and i dont know did is he 3 betting low PP to start with
ups i just saw note his hero call with Q hi… now I think i’ll bet 333$ and fold to a shove
He could have the Ad here, checking A-high on the flop, and I think an overbet or push would be wrong since he may only call when he has that. But he could also have called the turn with a hand like Ax9d or KxJd and be willing now to pay off some more after improving to a flush. So a bet seems like a good idea, sized to make it look like we are using the 4th diamond on the board to finally push him out. The situation is different from the last “what’s your play” edition, because he hasn’t shown much strength here and seems to be in bluff-catching mode.
Although you can’t rule it out, he will probably not bluff-raise often. He apparently has some showdown value. He didn’t bluff-raise in the Q-high hand, he just hero-called, and it worked well for him.
Bet $288 and fold if raised (similar to what others have said already).
He might even hero-call without a diamond.
Play it safe! check the river!
This strikes me as quite close. I agree that like Ak-A10 with a diamond makes the most sense given the action. The fact that we have the K of diamonds, and that he might sometimes fold the turn with Ax, when x is a diamond, but not when the A is a diamond, makes me think his range is slightly weighted towards the nut flush. On the other hand, he might sometimes float the flop with a hannd other than Ax (like KQ), and he’s shown the ability to maker hero calls. At first I thought bet, but the more I think about it, the more I think checking is slightly better. If i did bet, I think a smaller bet is kinda cool, like $150, he can’t really cr much since it’s so hard for him to have a boat, and he’ll likely make a crying call with a lower diamond given the pot odds.
Wow I didn’t realize you bet the flop so small until Chris M. mentioned it. I think he’s right that this puts enough non Ax floats back into his ragne to probably make this a value bet.
I don’t see why he can’t have a lot of Adx and a lot of broadway aces like AJ AQ to the river. In fact, wouldn’t it make sense that most of his ace high check-calls have the ace of diamonds in them given a lot continue on the flop but only those with a high diamond continue on the turn? He c-bets 67% on flops in 3 bet pots. What type of hands might he want to check/call on this texture?
Haven’t read all the replies but atm I think its actually pretty close between check behind and 277$ bet/fold. I think the timing of his turn actions (the check and the call) are actually extremely important here deciding between these two, esp given that he is billed as a non pro. I know he called us with Q high earlier but tbh my vote is check behind.
Very good point about his turn timing. I don’t remember what it was or whether it played a role in my decision unfortunately.
First of all, his flop and turn actions look a lot like an Ax hand that tried to get to a cheap showdown and then turned a FD. Could be Adx, but could just as well be another A with a diamond kicker. I don’t think he has two diamonds in his hand very often, unless he sees you as super aggro and is trapping. But even then I’d expect him to either c/r on the flop or on the turn.
So it’s very likely that he just made a flush as well. The question is, how high a diamond he needs to go with his ace to call on the turn. I’d expect him to fold the worst Axs on the turn, something like Ax2d-Ax8d. He might even play weak Ax differently on the flop. If we expect him to have mostly either the Ad with any kicker or another A with a diamond kicker 9 or higher, then checking back becomes the right play. His flop and turn actions weigh his range very heavily towards Ax and after the turn action, based on combinatorics he’s more likely to have Adx than to have Axd, assuming that he wouldn’t call again on the turn with a small diamond.
Based on how the hand went down, I think his calling range is gonna be Adx >50% of the time. Therefore I don’t think that you could bet this for value. And there’s absolutely no need to bluff obviously.
I think I’d bet 480 and call a shove. I’m not to familiar with head’s up stats but feel like he could have 22-AA, AxQd, AxJd, Ax10d.
To me it seems like he would check raise the turn with the AdXx. Playing out of position with 2 overs and the nut flush draw, the turn seems like the best place to get your money in because you’ll be acting first and another diamond may freeze the action up. It just seems like it will be hard to extract more money with the Ad on the river being out of position.
With that said I’d have some concerns about 33. He’s c-betting 2/3rds of the time in 3 bet pots and with a flush draw paired board he check calls a 1/4 pot bet on the flop, then check calls another 1/2 pot bet on the turn. Then checks the river on a 4 flush board. He’s already shown that he’ll hero call light and that may have been the good’ole rope a dope.
Tough spot for sure. I still think he’ll raise allin/call with a lower flush then have a full house.
Don’t think you can say “raise allin/call” like they are the same thing. It’s very reasonable to think that he’ll call with a worse flush, but I don’t think he ever check-raises a worse hand for value. If he check-raises, we have a bluff-catcher.