What’s Your Play: Results

There were tons of comments on the most recent “What’s Your Play?” post, which is awesome. I’m going to go ahead and post the results, but especially after seeing the comments I think it’s very close and I don’t mean to hold my play up as the best possible decision. This is really one I posted because I thought it was interesting and close, not because I thought there was a clear but unconventional best play.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) – PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) ($2074)
BB ($1113.50)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K♦, J♥
Hero bets $20, BB raises to $66, Hero calls $46

Flop: ($132) 3♦, 5♦, 5♣ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $44, BB calls $44

Turn: ($220) 8♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $123, BB calls $123

River: ($466) 7♦ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $333, BB raises to $880.50 (All-In), Hero folds

Total pot: $1132 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
BB didn’t show
Outcome: BB won $1131.50

I went for the bet-fold line, which quite a few of you suggested. Special props to jas and bond2king for predicting my exact bet size! (I do have a penchant for betting all one digit).

The first play I ruled out was bet-calling. Villain clearly has some showdown value to be check-calling out of position. Although this would be a reasonable spot to turn a pair into a bluff, he’s shown a penchant for making big calls, so I think he’s more likely to just call than to bluff-raise with even the bottom of his range. As Zoltz put it, “he will probably not bluff-raise often. He apparently has some showdown value. He didn’t bluff-raise in the Q-high hand, he just hero-called, and it worked well for him.” I definitely don’t see him raising worse for value, so if I bet and get raised, I think I have to fold.

That leaves the question of whether to bet, and if so how much. Christoph and Gareth make a compelling case for checking. I wish I’d thought it through quite as thoroughly as they did in their comments. Still, I think I would have decided to bet. Villain has shown enough of a propensity to be hero that I’m not convinced he needs a diamond in his hand to call turn or river. Essentially I think his range for getting to the river is a little wider than these guys assume and may include hands like AK/AQ without a diamond, and I don’t think it’s out of the question that he calls with them on the river. That said, I don’t think checking would be bad at all.

So, do I make a “normal” bet or an overbet? JeanNoel says, “When you bluff, you overbet, with a hand that is almost the nut I think you have to overbet.” The “almost” is a critical point here. Overbetting, both for value and as a bluff, is best when your opponent’s range is clearly defined as a bluff-catcher. You can shove a polarized range consisting of hands that are always good and hands that have no showdown value and put him in nasty spots.

That’s not the case here. We’re talking about a thin value bet into a range that consists of both bluff-catchers and strong hands, especially the nut flush, that beat most of our value betting range. We need the bottom of his range to stay in for a value bet to be profitable, and then makes an overbet less desirable.

Chris M makes two arguments for an overbet that is less than all-in:

“1) Villain’s range here is entirely bluffcatchers, and should polarize your range in his eyes. Despite seeing you make some thin v-bets, I doubt he expects you to overbet river with Qd or less (maybe not even Qd), so if he has a 44-66 holding (with or w/o a diamond) or even AK high, he might be tempted to call river given how you can show up with ATC bluffing this runoff.

Villain has also shown the propensity to hero call when you ‘rep thin’ given his Q high call.”

Not a lot to add here beyond what I said above; Villain’s range contains a lot of Adx, which is not a pure bluff-catcher given that we’re talking about value betting Kd.

“2) You can’t get c/r bluffed. When you overbet, he simply can’t c/r bluff you for fear of bluffing into the nuts. Maybe this is flawed logic – but without the Ad he simply can’t c/r you as a bluff. He’ll be risky way too much bluffing vs a range which definitely has the nuts. It’s just less likely someone goes for a c/r bluff vs an overbet than it is that they go for a c/r bluff vs a 1/2-2/3 PSB.”

I think that’s true, but as I argue above, I am not too concerned about getting check-raise bluffed by this guy. I doubt his calling range is any different when we bet 550 vs. shoving, so if I thought I was ahead of that range, I’d just shove. As played, though, I felt a more normal bet would pull more bluff-catchers into his range (remember I’m talking about maybe as light as A-high or one-pair here), so that’s the way I went with it.

Thanks everyone for your very thought-provoking comments. I’m hoping to get another of these out this week, maybe something tournament-themed now that WCOOP is nearly upon us!