The day started well enough. My table couldn’t be called “soft”, but given the overall tough field, I imagine it was one of the more desirable tables. We were supposed to be playing 8-handed, but my table consisted of me, three primarily live players of varying skill, and three online players. Of the latter group, Adam “csimmsux” Geyer was the only one I recognized. I also had a player with whom I’d been friendly since my Day One table on my right, which always makes the day more pleasant.
I won and lost some small pots, hovering between 120 and 140K with blinds of 2K/4K/400. I had a fairly active image: even though I’d mostly had solid opening hands like AJ and AQ, I had always either won or lost without showdown.
I opened to 10,000 with JJ UTG+2, leaving somewhere between 110K and 120K behind. One of the internet players 3-bet to 32,000 in the CO, and the action was back on me.
This sizing just screams AK. It’s extremely unlikely that I’m going to call even 20% of my stack from out of position, so a smaller raise would be sufficient to put me to a push/fold decision. This makes me doubt that he’s ever making this particular 3-bet with a hand that’s folding to a shove. At the same time, I think he’d also choose a smaller size with QQ+ simply to entice action and possibly represent a bluff. The big 3-bet that forces a push/fold decision simply screams that he has a hand he’s willing to felt but would kind of prefer not to have to and in particular would prefer not to play post-flop. Probably AK, could be AQ, but same difference when I have JJ.
So can I do anything other than shove? If I knew for certain that he had AK, I could do something like call and shove (or try to induce a shove) on flops that he misses while check-folding when I see a K or A. This is tempting, particularly on the bubble (there were 63 remaining, with 56 to be paid). The problem is that check-folding a K-high flop is a disaster if he happens to shove AQ. Then there’s the chance that he feels similarly uncomfortable with a pair like TT or 99 that I dominate and want to get all in against ASAP. So while its tempting, I think the level of certainty necessary to do something other than shove simply isn’t there.
So I did shove, and he actually thought for a moment before calling with AK (which of course if he ever folds AK or maybe more realistically AQ it’s a huge coup for me though he probably doesn’t even if he does think about it momentarily). Anyone following my tweats knows that I was way overdue to lose a pre-flop all-in, and sure enough there was that K on the flop.
My photo on the PokerStars blog captures the feeling of “Yep, there it is,” quite well, I think:
Bollux! (I love that word)
Better luck next time.
Me too! And thanks.
bah! no good… sorry to hear that. fwiw I will be riding the foucalt horse in my WSOP ME fantasy pool this year. glad you got this one out of the way now so I can ship the pot come July!
thanks in advance! 🙂
Agreed. Glad you got your Team PS jitters out of the way here!
BTW, did you consider folding pre? I’m a LAG but after your Nittaments post (and especially playing live) I can see some merit there…
He says in his post that he certainly felt he was ahead considering the raise sizing of his opponent. Therefore, a fold wouldn’t make sense.
I realize that he thinks he’s ahead, but some short-stack advice I live by is “never call off your stack hoping for a coin flip” He doesn’t think he has any Fold Equity so he’s basically jamming and hoping for a flip or a mistake.
Don’t the odds factor into your decision-making? I am risking 120K to win 270K. Also I’m a 54% favorite against AK.
He’s got way too much chip EV to fold. (See my long post above). The question is whether he should shove or call.
Also, they’re still seven out of the money. He’s starting to get short enough that he might not even make it that far if he doesn’t win some chips. If they were one or two out of the money, then there might be an argument for folding based on various factors, but this far out you have to play good hands when you get them.
I do think that this +EV situation is a clear shove or call/shove in a cash game.
In a tourney though, my reasoning comes down to this: do you think this is the best chance you’re going to get to reach 250K chips? If you think it probably is or it comes close, then shove or call/shove. But if not, then take the 10K hit and wait for a better opportunity.
You were the one playing, not me. I don’t know the answer to this question. I’m just throwing it out there for your consideration.
Thanx for all you do.
I think it’s too good of a chance to pass up, and I think that would be true in virtually any tournament. If he shoved AK face-up in an unraised pot, such that I was getting much closer to 1:1 odds as a 54:46 favorite, I could imagine some circumstances where I would fold, though this still wouldn’t be one of them.
In this case, I have 54% equity and need only 44% to get it in. In a 270K pot, I’m leaving 27K or nearly 7BB in EV on the table.
The thing about future opportunities is that passing up immediately profitable spots also decreases the EV of those future spots. Suppose I do get the opportunity to get my money in as a 60/40 favorite in the future. Winning this current pot means that I have 270K to invest in that future opportunity rather than just 120K.
Ignoring prize pool equity for the moment…
JJ vs any AK has 56% equity. So figure a final pot of about T250,000 if you shove, you’d have ~T140k in pot equity, of which ~T110k is your cost of shoving, so your chip EV of shoving is ~T30k.
If you call, planning to fold if an ace or king flops, but otherwise shove, the pot will be ~T73k. We’ll assume he never calls a shove. The probability of a shovable flop is 42/48 * 41/47 * 40/46 = 66%, which gives you chip equity of .66 * 73k = ~T48k, of which T20k is your cost of calling, for a chip EV of ~T28k.
In other words, from a chip EV standpoint, it’s pretty close. But clearly calling is less volatile than shoving.
Also, from an ICM/prize pool equity standpoint, calling has to be better if you know he’s going to call a shove. You can never possibly pick up as much prize pool EQ as you lose. That is, if you win the pot, you only marginally increase your PPEQ but if you lose the pot, you’re out of the tournament.
On the other hand, shoving is better if you’re playing to win, as opposed to playing to maximize your PPEQ or to get into the money. I think Chen or Bloch or one of those guys explained why in some internet posting years ago that I can’t find now. But the gist is that if you’re playing to win all the chips, you can’t afford to pass up the coin flips.
Given the assorted tangential benefits of winning a major tournament, the shove might be better on those merits, but otherwise calling is usually better, as you give up very little EV in exchange for a huge increase in your chances of survival.
I see after the fact that I didn’t account for the cases where the flop is AJx, KJx, AKJ, AJJ or KJJ, but these are rare and don’t change the numbers enough to worry about.
I thought he made it pretty clear that if he was certain villain had AK then calling was probably the correct play, but “the level of certainty necessary to do something other than shove simply isn’t there.”
I guess the “screams AK” part made me think otherwise.
Even if AQ is possible, as long as it’s not likely there’s still a case for calling.
I’m not saying calling is always better, just that it’s never wrong. Even against AK-AQ with AQ just as likely as AK, it’s only somewhat inferior to shoving. It’s not a huge error.