Solid Favorite Against the Nuts

I didn’t realize it at the time or I would have raised the flop, but this is one of those interesting PLO situations where my draw is a pretty solid favorite against the nuts:

PokerStars Pot-Limit Omaha High, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($339.20)
MP ($254.90)
CO ($497.05)
Hero ($301.60)
SB ($315.35)
BB ($290)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 6c, 9d, 5d, 8s.
3 folds, Hero raises to $4.7, SB calls $4.20, BB calls $3.70.

Flop: ($14.70) 8d, 6d, 4h (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $14.55, Hero calls $14.55, SB calls $14.55.

Turn: ($58.35) 3c (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $56.05, Hero calls $56.05, SB raises to $280.25, BB calls $214.50 (All-In), Hero folds.

River: ($665.20) Ts (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $665.20

Results in white below:

SB has 5h 2s 7h Qs (straight, eight high).

BB has 2c As 5s 7d (straight, eight high).

Outcome: SB wins $337.45. BB wins $327.75.

In this case I’ve got 62% equity on the flop, but that’s in part because neither Villain has any redraws. Against a range of 75xx, I’ve got 54% equity. Also it looks like folding the turn is a bad idea. I was thinking that half of my 7’s were dead and my flush draw could easily be dominated, but even against the 75xx range I’ve got 33% equity and I need just 25%. Live and learn.

1 thought on “Solid Favorite Against the Nuts”

  1. I take it there was a 20c ante??? (Max open raise with no ante or extra blinds posted = $3.50). Damn HH converters.

    SB probably doesn’t have anything but the straight – with a set or big diamonds or a top wrap redraw he really should try to get the money in on the flop while he’s freerolling the opposition. His pattern flop-turn pattern is typical of a dry straight hoping to survive the turn card.

    Either that, or he’s a really bad player just splashing around.

    BB doesn’t have to have 75 here. If he’s at all aggressive he might well be betting the turn with hands like AT97, A987, JT97 (all with a bigger diamond draw than yours), 9887, 8876, 9766, etc. figuring you and SB are weak for your flop calls. You’re in bad to poor shape against these kinds of hands. So the fold might not be as bad as it looks when you run the sim just against the 75xx range.

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