What’s Your Range?

23 thoughts on “What’s Your Range?”

1. Mp2 has a pair 10’s plus (10’s, QQ’s, KK’s) and (15%) of the time KQclubs/A10 clubs

   I think Button has a weakish J(9,7,q) (40%) or some combo draw…like 97clubs or k10 clubs (40%)…weak draw (20%)

   I don’t think hero has a J because I don’t see hero calling many j’s in the sb.
   (Plus with a J if he raises he is only getting worse to fold)

   I think he raises to try and get MP2 to fold his pair and a fold from button (50%) of the time.
   So hero has Ax clubs or 910 clubs I guess most of the time.

2. The obvious ones first: 8s and J-8 suited if you somehow called in the SB with it.

   Then: A-J, K-J, and Q-J (and not that it matters too much, but I like Q-J a little bit more if it’s the Q of clubs to block the straight flush draw).

   Since you say the button’s not that aggressive/creative, I don’t really like pushing with flush draws, but if I do, I generally want to do it with A-hi flush draws to catch a possible straight flush drawer in who you say is a more loose-passive MP2. So: A-K and A-Q of clubs.

   And because our line looks so strong, and the open-ended straight flush draw is so pretty: 9-10 of clubs will be the bottom of our range.

   Am I missing anything? I could add more A-hi flush draws (push A-6 down to A-2 of clubs but not A-J, A-10, or A-7 of clubs because the straight flush drawing hands that we dominate are less likely to occur).

   • Oh, I forgot one other obvious but highly unlikely hand to push: JJ.

   • I realized that I made a typo in the A-hi flush draws that I would fold: I’d fold A-10, A-9, and A-7 of clubs because I think there are fewer flush draws that we dominate that would call.

     And also, to make clear what was implied, I’d fold J-10 and J-9 because I think there are fewer (I would say almost no) trip jacks hand that we dominate that would call.

     I think figuring out this range of trap hands that seemingly have good equity for pushing but are actually terrible because the opponents’ calling ranges are much too strong is the most important point of this exercise.

3. how much equity do we need?

   i don’t give a lot of credit to MP2. so effective stacks are $605…there’s $221 in the pot already, so we only need 36.5% equity? (haven’t done this calc in awhile not sure if i butchered it)

   i feel like my range is too tight given the equity here…so maybe loosen up the strt and fd ranges?

   • (not sure why my range didn’t show up)

     88, QJ, KJ, AJ, T9cc, Axcc, JJ…and Kxcc, T9o(need to stove these vs villians range- no access at work).

4. I guess it is possible Hero would dismiss Button having AJ/KJ because (button didnt re pop the button pre) and then button overbet the flop so hero would decide that the best play if he had J,10 or J9 was to shove and hope for a call from a combo draw/draw (as opposed to letting 2 players draw assuming MP2 calls.) The fact hero having a J making it even less likely button had AJ/KJ. Plus over betting flop (re-raising) would seem like a very creative play for Button to make with AJ/KJ.

   so my range for hero would be like AxCC, 910CC,97cc, J9, J10

5. Given your read that BTN isn’t that aggressive/creative – I think its much less likely he’s bluff-raising, so my continuing range here would simply be for value:

   88, KJ+, ATcc+

   I actually think jamming the T9cc / 97cc hands would be a mistake because I don’t think we have FE vs BTN, and many of the hands that he is bluffraising on this flop are Axxcc, which have you smashed.

   If we think BTN is ever light here, i’d also jam all my combo clubs.

   I also think jamming worse than KJ might be too thin here, but maybe i’ve been playing too much PLO.

6. I can’t see the suits at work so if there is a flush draw out there that would effect my answer.

   tl:dr
   Hero’s shoving range: JJ-88,AJs,KJs,QTs+,J8s,T9s,AJo,KJo,QJo,J8o,T9o
   MP2 betting range: ATC? 99-66,A8s,KJs,K8s,QTs+,T9s
   Buttons 3b range: TT-99,A8s,QJs,J8s+,T8s+,98s,QJo,JTo

   MP2 range:
   Loose/Passive – I’m not sure how loose he is to be min-raising specific hands. Giving him a broad range of A8s, Q10s, QJs, KJs, AJs, 109s 22-99. We might be able to take out AJs, KJs or 88-99 if we thought that he thought he should be raising more pre with those hands first in.

   Button range:
   Not overly aggressive/creative – I think that his 3b is both aggressive and creative if he had JJ, 88, J8. Maybe it’s overly obvious to call in position but 3betting the nuts in position to me seems creative against a loose player. Even if he is passive he might get another river bet if he checks the turn.

   I think we could eliminate AA-1010 since he’s not that creative he’d most likely 3bet those pre.

   TT-99, J10s, QJs, J9s. Maybe J8s or QJo if he thought the SB/BB were going to be easy reads and play straight forward out of the blinds.

   Hero’s range:
   Interesting as I was putting things into Stove that J2s/o is almost equal to AJs/o against the ranges that I have for villains. Although you do lose 5-10% if we shorten the PP’s 99-55. Although if Button Villain is calling Pre-flop with 55 my guess would be that he’d be calling with 22 as they are virtually the same against MP2’s range.

   I think your range should entirely be based on how often you you think you’re going to get called related to each villain. If we think that MP2 is C-betting all his hands (air, showdown, nuts) and button knows this I think at the very worst Button has A8s, 99-TT, QJ, JT. Since he has to get through 3 people. If he has that range and we shove 88+,AJ,JT we’re only a 53/46 favorite. We’re basically giving him the correct odds to call.

   If MP2 is C-betting air and Button is 3betting air then we could jam with ATC and get folds.

   If only one of either MP2 or the Button is going to call a Jam with A8 then we’re right on the cusp of jamming with 99+,QTs,T9s,QTo,T9o as we’d be 60/40 favorites. (MP2 isn’t getting the right odds to call but Button is really close)

   The way the hand has played out I think you can put MP2 as dead money in the pot. Unless he has AJ, JJ or 88 I don’t think he can call the way the action has gone. So that means that you have to beat Buttons range. I think we beat buttons range if we push:

   Heros: JJ-88,AJs,KJs,QTs+,J8s,T9s,AJo,KJo,QJo,J8o,T9o
   Button: TT-99,A8s,QJs,J8s+,T8s+,98s,QJo,JTo

   If we knew for absolute certain that Button has JTo/s:
   We’re at 57/42 with this range JJ,88,QJs,J8s,T9s

   Sorry if it seems hectic but I was doing it at work and in pieces.

   • Knowing that there is a flush draw out there I started to rerun some hands through Stove. What I found was quiet shocking to me.

     Axcc hands don’t have us absolutely crushed if we have T9cc which I thought they would:

     Villain: 55.93% { AcKc, AcQc, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c }
     Hero: 43.16% { Tc9c }

     If we put Villain on say Tc9c we can push a large number of Axcc and Kxcc hands if we include our “nut” hands in our range:

     Hero: 69.53%{ JJ, 88, AcKc, AcQc, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KcQc, Kc7c, Kc6c, Kc5c, Kc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, J8s, J8o }
     Villain: 29.67% { Tc9c }

     I know that it say’s “What’s your range?” but I think we also have to factor in that the Button only has a PSB after his raise. If we cold call we’ll be out of position on future streets. Looking at the Axcc Kxcc hands we’re also a slight favorite vs T9cc(56/43).

     So if we put villain on Axcc Kxcc we could shove with 44+, J8, T9cc and be break even(60/40). If we start taking out the K2cc, K3cc hands our percentage goes up. So I’m going out on a limb and saying hero should push as wide as 44+, J8, T9cc.

     • That’s putting button villain on Axcc, Kxcc hands.

     • Are you suggesting we should put draws in BTN’s range or that we should put him on exactly a draw? Even if 44 is ahead of his draws, shoving it into a range that includes trips would be disastrous.

       • This is something that I just realized that I need to work on. Your comments regarding a trips and a hand that I played this weekend I have a very large hole when weighting possible hands. I don’t discount them entirely at the start(JJ, 88, J8, Jx), it’s just that I give villain less of a chance to have them as I’m working out the hand I do end up discounting them in the end.

         Because I think the answer is coming soon I’ll go with 88, JJ, J8, AJ, KJ.

         If villain has QJ then T9s loses some outs to a straight and if it’s the Qc then we lose another out to a flush.

7. J Clubs
   8 Clubs
   J Diamonds

8. MP2 may just be stabbing w any two, though this is not consistent with his passive tendencies I don´t instantly give him credit for a J.
   BTN can know this and re-raise as a bluff/ semi-bluff with just about any pair and any J (J9s+), maybe even 9Ts.
   I´d like to think I´ll shove 88, JJ, QJs+ for value, and TT+, T9s (agree w ambidextruos, it´s bond girl type of pretty), AQs+ as a semibluff.

9. People are forgetting that the BB is still in the hand.
   Given that you are betting all-in against 3 relatively shallow stacks, I don’t think a pure bluff can be in your range. One or Two of the villians are going to call too often.
   So I want to be all-in here with only strong hands or strong draws.
   So my range is JJ, 88, J8, AJ, AcKc, AcQc, AcTc, and 9cTc.

   • I think the BB folds since we don’t get any reads much like MP2 and Button. That is just a hunch though.

     • I agree he probably did fold based on the info. provided, but you can’t assume that since that information isn’t available to you when making your decision.

   • Good catch on BB- I’d even forgotten about him myself- but honestly I think my range would be the same whether or not he were in there. The odds of him waking up with a hand good enough to cold-call a cold 3-bet shove on this flop are pretty slim.

10. Four ways, it feels like the Mendoza line(s), as it were, are like QJ and KcXc. QQ is not in my range with four players, even though I agree that MP2 is discounted. I’m not worried about the big blind per se, but I do think you have to assume a call. I don’t have Stove at work, but I guess my range would be JJ, 88, J8, AJo, KJo, AcXc, Tc9c (can’t resist — thanks, Norman Chad). T9o seems to thin and would you get here with that anyway?

11. what is with all the complicated analysis? not necessary here.

    lol you guys are aggro maniacs. this is only a good play with AJ or a fullhouse. button always has a jack here.

    • I think some people are assuming he might fold some Jacks to a cold shove. Do you disagree?

      • Mp2 probably doesn’t have 88. He would call to price in draws and he will always get action from any jack behind him. He might also have some good draws that may or may not call a shove.

        We could have 88 or AJ rather easily. So there is some fold equity. Can we shove Axcc? There’s an advantage since if we call a club may kill our action and we have a blocker to his AJ. If we fold out 30 % (QJs J10s J9s some draws) we have 36% pot equity against AJ, KJ, 10 9cc. that gives us .3(220) + .7( .64(-440) + .36 (+660)) = $35 EV. Its marginal – but it may be better if he folds more or calls with more draws. J 10cc is also profitable.

        An interesting question then is – is QJ a fold for you?

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