Nothing Else To Be Done

12 thoughts on “Nothing Else To Be Done”

1. Because of MP2’s shall stack size did that effect your bet sizing on the turn? Does the 38 into 108 price in the flush draw?

   146/38 = 3.8/1 = 26%?

   I understand the fold on the river but I’m wondering about the bet sizing on the turn.

   • Yeah, I’m choosing a small size because the hands that I want to pay me off are weak and I don’t need to build the pot to set up a river shove. Bare flush draw doesn’t have the right odds to chase on the turn. With 9 outs he’ll hit about 18% of the time (though Ah is not an out for him). Even KhT doesn’t have right odds.

     • My mistake. I had it on 36% for the river which I know isn’t right.

2. sizing seems weird here. Methinks you need to bet a little bigger on the flop to set up a turn shove?

   • Yeah I wasn’t really thinking about that, though I should have been.

3. You created a flop SPR of 3.5 and sized your pre-flop bet such that he was getting the right odds to call in position with most hands that he would limp with. Did you have a reason for doing that?

   Do you think raising to something bigger like $24 would have been better to create a flop SPR under 3 (and thus make playing the hand easier post-flop)?

   At what flop SPR are you comfortable getting it all-in OOP no matter what comes on the board, or does it always depend on the board and the tendencies of who you are playing against (in addition to the SPR)?

   I have this problem myself OOP and I often wonder if I should have raised more pre-flop (or limp) or just give up after the flop bet when called (but then I feel so weak/exploitable).

   • Why do you say he’s getting the “right odds” to call. He’s got to call 16 into 44, so he needs 36% equity. 87s has 22% and many hands are in worse shape than that. Plus I want him to call because I have implied odds when he flops a pair or draw.

     The risk of raising too much is that he starts to fold. I’m more concerned about finding the sweet spot where he pays but still sees the flop than I am about setting up the right SPR. I think it’s going to be pretty easy to play post-flop no matter what, as I can comfortably bet-call just about any flop. There are a few awkward turns if he flats the flop, and as DHM suggested I think that I ought to bet a bit more on the flop, but I think preflop is good.

     • I was thinking more about implied odds with my comment (which are about 10%) – doesn’t that factor into his decision to call when you are going to lead out almost every flop?

       I see your point though if you perceive his preflop range to have alot of suited/connectors that he’ll flat the flop on a draw.

4. I don’t know, your line just looks so weak here and he has so little left. I think I’d be value shoving JJ and AT. I might even be doing it with KT/K9/JT/J9/T9. Then factor in that once the 9h hits the river, and you have shown so much weakness I’d be super likely to bluff shove AK/AJ/Jx/Ahx/Khx.

   Not raising pre. or on the flop with KK seems much less likely, but if I got past the flop with it like this I’m probably shoving the river.

   Personally I think I’m betting more like $55-65 on the turn, folding to the turn shove but otherwise shoving the river.

   • I agree that he can profitably bluff the river, but I don’t think he has any hands that need to bluff. Given the open limp, I don’t see him having AJ or AK, and I don’t think he calls flop with some random Ahx. Personally I’m not expecting him to value shove worse, and I also doubt AT, JJ, and KK are in his range. In my experience most fish are showdown monkeys and not going to value bet one pair with trips, straights, and flushes all possible.

     I don’t think bet-folding $55 is an option on the turn, you’re getting pretty huge odds at that point.

5. Yeah, sucks to fold. I wish I had read this before I pIs off a rivered backdoor flush with KK last night. 🙂

   • Haha, sorry!

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