As played, Villain pretty much never has a straight, and he probably realizes that I know that. This means that I can just abuse him on the river with overbets, and the best he can do is try to guess at the correct calling frequency. Not only can I overbet as a bluff, but I can also overbet less than a straight for value, confident that I am good 99.9% of the time.
No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 ($768.90)
MP2 ($946.20)
MP3 ($162)
CO ($400)
Button ($144)
SB ($402)
BB ($475)
UTG ($400)
Hero (UTG+1) ($480)
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 10
, 10
UTG bets $10, Hero calls $10, 6 folds, BB calls $6
Flop: ($32) 6, 10
, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $11, 1 fold, UTG calls $11
Turn: ($54) 7 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
River: ($54) 4
(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $69, UTG calls $69
Total pot: $192 | Rake: $3
Results:
UTG had 7, 7 (three of a kind, sevens).
Hero had 10, 10 (three of a kind, tens).
Outcome: Hero won $189
Note that my doing this for “thin” value means that his 77 is not a pure bluff-catcher, functionally equivalent to QQ. I probably would have played 66 or 88 the same way.
Not sure I like the flop underbet, mostly because I expect villains flop calling ranges to be fairly inelastic on this board, and I doubt we induce many c/r’s, given the mostly likely hands that would c/c now just have odds to c/c.
Also I do see villains occasionally post control overpairs on flops like this as the UTG PFR.
I agree with you Chris.I guess Andrew uses his underbet as litmus test for floped str8.
The test is blue and let’s abuse UTG not me.
I see tradoff bewteen info(no str8) and less risk vs smaller pot(lost value?).
If I have to apply game theory to his flop action- I will say he took Nash equilibrium vs Bayes assumption.LOL
I wish I could say there were this much thought behind it :-). The litmus test bit is true, but I don’t think it’s enough to make this the ideal bet size.
On serious note.We have different perspective and skill poker level.
My experience with winning deep stack cash players who try HS HUSNG is following.
My expierience tells me:
We have 100 BB situation,you are very good cash player.
your flop underbet gives you some info and flexibilty and freedom of choice on future streets including “big” folds.
Yeah I suspect you you are able to fold top of your range(topset) under specific circumcances with a help of your superior poker skills.
I am not I am exclusive ~50BB husng grinder.
It is not only about effective stack which makes our perspective different.
Deep stack cash game is MORE complex in category of poker skills.
50BB sng regular or turbo speed game is much more theoretical game than cash game.
Cash players did not realize that!!!
I pretty much agree with this (see my own reply). I’d just add, however, that AB doesn’t really want to ever fold a hand this good. Even if four diamonds come down, he still has a pretty big diamond, so a fold would be painful. While he might be able to get away from his set or flush under certain conditions, and doing so is certainly easier if the pot is kept small, what he really wants is to not get bet off the pot at all.
Agreed. I get a little carried away with my underbetting sometimes.
I think you were right the first time.
The short version: betting bigger doesn’t really gain all that much (the draws are going to at least call anyway, if not c/r), but risks knocking out hands that might float (like 77) and, more importantly, risks losing control of the pot and leaving yourself too little room to make later-street plays like the one you did. Making the pot bigger early on hands like this often gets you pot committed with the losing hand on the later streets. I’m too short on time to get into much more detail than this, but y’all are smart enough to work out the rest.
I will just add that BB is an unknown factor here, as conditions are perfect for BB to for a c/r with a made straight or a combidraw. Or even just a plain flush draw. And it’s BB I’m far more worried about at this point than UTG.
How thinly would you value overbet the river? Would you do it with 2 pair? An overpair? TPTK?
Probably with anything that could beat an overpair, which is what I expected him to have, so I guess down to AA. I don’t think I’d ever bet anything less than what I bet here.
I decided to make one more comment regarding your post.
I have impression that my comment was not understood by posters including you
I did not criticize your bet sizing on flop I imply your under betting reflects a kind of optimal strategy.
I believe I addressed the gist of your post.
The gist of your for post is not about your bet sizing.
The title of your post is “Value Betting Against a Capped Range”
I will suggest more generic title ” When you should switch from optimal strategy to exploitative one?”.
I assume you gave the answer : pure information or more precisely difference in information between you and UTG.
“As played, Villain pretty much never has a straight, and he probably realizes that I know that.”
True.But you know that you have the best hand after his flop call and he does not know.
The turn puts question mark or introduces information “balance” so you can not start abusing.
The river in position is trigger point to deploy exploitative strategy.
My conclusion to your post is:
Playing pure exploitative strategies deliver the highest possible winnings or massive losses.
To minimize risk you need to create “info imbalance”.
It is really easy.Imagine that you have pocket deuces rather than TT.LOL