I HAD Top Pair: Results

I recently asked for reader opinions regarding a hand where I had top pair until the river, which brought an Ace but also missed a possible flush draw. Here I’m posting the results and my thoughts. If you haven’t already offered your own thoughts, please follow the link above and leave a comment before reading any further.

First, I’ll show you what happened:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (2 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (BB) ($9526.50)
SB ($3306)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, K
SB bets $60, Hero calls $40

Flop: ($120) 3, 10, K (2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks

Turn: ($120) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $120, SB calls $120

River: ($360) A (2 players)
Hero bets $269, SB calls $269

Total pot: $898 | Rake: $0.50

Results:
SB had A, J (one pair, Aces).
Hero had Q, K (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: $898 returned to SB

Thinking over this session after I finished playing for the night, it occurred to me that a more creative option may have been best in this hand. I chose to value bet because I expected Villain rarely to bluff and always to check behind hands worse than mine. I felt it was close as to whether I’d be ahead of his calling range, but I didn’t want to check-fold.

I want to highlight a comment from Lin Sherman which hit on pretty much exactly what I thought about this hand upon further consideration:

Except perhaps for A6, I can’t put him on a hand that can stand a check-raise. So I check. If he checks, fine, I got to see a cheap showdown. If he bets anything, I raise.

I think betting is all wrong here. If he has an ace he’ll just call, giving me zero chance of getting him off it. If he has less, he’ll probably fold. It would be really hard for him to bluff-raise here, even I make a come-get-me bet. If for some reason I did bet and he raised, I’d probably call, but I don’t think he’s going to raise.

I think this is pretty much spot-on. The only thing I’d add is a possible objection to this line of thinking, which it turns out commenter Christoph already spelled out quite well:

I think villain will often feel obligated to pay off a c/r with Ax, because the way the hand went down, he’ll very rarely have a better hand than that. It would also be a not very standard line to take for value and in my experience (at a lower level) people are more suspicious when they face an unusual line. Even if Villain gives Hero credit to take this line for value, the only hand that makes sense is QJ, sets and maybe AT. If Villain thinks Hero is capable of c/ring the river, I doubt he’d fold Ax to a c/r.

I think Christoph has a valid point here. Against someone I knew to be a very good hand reader, or a Level One calling station, I wouldn’t attempt this check-raise. I don’t feel that this Villain was either, which means that I really have no idea how he’d respond to a check-raise. Given that I also had no idea how he’d respond to a value bet, though, I don’t think I’d have much to lose by going for the check-raise, and I wish I had.

Thanks to everyone who played along. I enjoyed reading all of your thoughts, and I’ll try to get another interesting spot up for comment soon.