What Have I Gotten Myself Into?

25 thoughts on “What Have I Gotten Myself Into?”

1. You can discount ducks and 5’s a little since he check/called the turn (I think), but yeah, he plays 77 exactly like this. He’d have to put you on a flop float+small turn bet+river overbet bluff line (if he was rebluffing). Or he’s trying to check shove you off of 99-QQ, AA, which, as you say, is too dirty for the average cat.

2. Also, I would look at the K in my hand as more reason to fold rather than call given your read.

3. I think this is just one of those – nobody bluffs here. Ever. spots.

   I actually think the overbet works in your favor in terms of being able to b/f this river, because its pretty insane to think some 2/4 player is gonna blufffshove over an overbet.

   Had you bet 2/3 the pot you could maybe talk yourself into calling if you think he puts you on a thin v-bet with worse than Kx and turns some pair or weird Ax turn float into a bluff, but when you overbet an unknown just has no bluffing range.

4. “I actually think the overbet works in your favor in terms of being able to b/f this river, because its pretty insane to think some 2/4 player is gonna blufffshove over an overbet.”

   Agree, too likely Hero has K after that action.

   • Ya well said.

5. Don’t really like the overbet myself, unless you have an image that you are very aggressive and capable of floating that flop very often, and/or you think he will give you credit for a hand like 66. Of course it can just induce a spaz-call. The less you respect your opponent the more I like it.

   As for making it easier to fold being a justification, that only works if you think he is capable of bluff-raising a normal bet a good amount of the time but not a larger one (it has to be a big difference in bluff-frequency not just a small one). I don’t think that’s true in this case because frankly I don’t see most players bluff-raising a smaller bet very often anyway, so you can safely bet-fold.

   Am I wrong? 😛

   • Hey B2K,

     I’m not Andrew but here’s my thoughts:

     An overbet in this spot is expected to polarize hero’s range, in villains eyes. When we overbet, we’re either representing a big hand that wants to get paid, or we’re betting big because we want to force him out of the pot.

     Given our range is polarized, villain should be much less likely to turn his calling range into a bluff here. If he has a hand like 99 here, he should be more likely to c/c vs an overbet (hoping to beat our bluffs) than he should bluffraising, because our range is going to either be snapfolding or snapcalling. We aren’t really going to have a bet/folding range here in his eyes.

     If we bet 2/3 the pot, it’s more plausible we would have some form of value bet/folding rage (we could certainly play JJ-QQ like this) looking to get thin value on the river from a hand like 99. In this case, there might be enough of a value portion of our range that would b/f to make bluffing a better option.

     The reason I said overbetting makes it easier to b/f is because villain should realize when we overbet, we very often have a nutted hand, or air. And if he though we had air, he’d probably just c/c. When people overbet here its just so likely they have a monster hand looking to get paid off, bluffing would be pretty suicidal.

     Plus, there’s just a lot of players who are only overbetting here with Kx+, and aren’t folding it to a jam.

     • Nooooo! That space under my comment was reserved for Andrew! 🙁 🙁 😛

       Anyway, of course overbetting reduces his bluff frequency. The thing is since we are losing extra money when he does bluff-raise he has to reduce his bluffing frequency a dis-proportionate amount for that to be a valid reason for overbetting. That might be true in this case but if so only to a very small degree imho since I don’t think villain is bluff-raising very often anyway. It’s not enough to turn what i think is a bad play into a good one, just a slightly less bad one. I think the chance of him just having a better hand (in which case we lose more money) pretty much cancels that benefit out anyway.

       Of course all this is assuming villain is a solid player who can fold QQ in a spot where he is beat the vast majority of the time, or that you don’t have a very aggressive history with him.

       • I don’t think he’s folding QQ, but I also don’t think he has it or anything comparable very often.

     • Very well said.

   • No, you’re spot on. Well actually I think overbetting is right here unless there’s a good reason not to do it, but this time it also happened to be the case that I didn’t respect this player.

6. You played so bad on the river that it’s perhaps moot to point out that you probably should have checked the turn.

   • Is this a level?

     Why would you EVER check the turn here?

     • Because Villain has nothing like 90% of the time. I think underbet > check > 60% pot.

       • I think checking the turn is better if you’re prepared to fold to a big check-raise. You obviously weren’t, which is why I said it’s probably a moot point.

         But if you’re willing to assume you’re beat if he makes a big check-raise on the turn, then I think you’re better off checking, because you have four nut redraws. Okay, it’s only a 1-in-10 shot. That’s better than no shot if you get pushed off your hand. And if you bag a ten against most players, you’re almost certainly going to get his entire stack, which is still considerable.

         Also, betting the turn may get him to fold hands he might have made a bluff or blocking bet > $16 with on the river, and discourage him from trying a bluff/blocking bet with hands he doesn’t fold.

         I just don’t think you’re getting much value for your $16 compared to what you could get by checking. But like I said, that analysis assumes you can make a big laydown on the turn with top trips.

         • No offense taken.

           FWIW I think a check-raise on the turn is a very different scenario than a check-raise on the river. The odds I’m getting are different, and the range he does it with is very different.

   • Ouch.

     • Sorry, that was a bit harsh. But I think it’s a slam-dunklaydown. I attribute it temporary insanity rather than inferior judgment. You’re obviously better than this.

       we all have these moments.

7. I do not like Andrew your size betting on turn and KKx board.
   you under betting turn(30%) and over betting river.
   I am CO on river to make final decision I split your possible holdings into in range segments by replaying segments against board and your action-betting history.
   I see value range and tiny bluff range.
   In case of full house I forget about bluff and I am interested only in your value range – your story is about milking on flop and turn and river is last attempt to make decent profit.
   Andrew you are transparent -I see a monster range and raise sizing is easy all-in.
   Let’s say I do not have full house I have AQ and you gave me cheap ride to river and I try to inspect your bluff range.
   AQ-Is this a bluff catcher?
   What a pocket is bluff catcher? what pocket is not bluff catcher?
   I will not call your “bluff” because I have problem to identify what is good bluff-catcher.

   I prefer different bet sizing with this board: 75% of pot turn and 75% of pot river.
   Your turn bet sizing is very negligible factor to make call by CO.I mean size 30% vs 75% of pot.
   The board change hierarchy of factors to make call.His pocket and your image are top factors in the hierarchy.
   Of course 30%vs75% make difference for your value.30%vs75% make him very comfortable to make decision.
   You make him comfortable -expect his good judgment on river.
   It is difficult to make me judgement about your river decision.You did not give us any information about CO profile.

   • I think you’d be wrong to assume a tiny bluff range here (from me). Villain has made clear he does not have a particularly strong hand, so there’s plenty of incentive for me to bluff. I think he folds almost always to a largeish bet on the turn. You’re right that I may get more value out of a pair if I bet more “normal” amounts, but those aren’t a big part of his range. The turn underbet has the potential to keep weaker hands in his range, some of which may improve to a second best hand on the river. It could also induce some spazzy bluff.

     • Andrew I understand your motivations I admire your style underbeting on flop or turn and “fireworks” on river.
       Well if I will try to emulate your style I will be losing player.

       • Maybe at first, but I think you’ll find that experimenting and playing creatively will generally make you a better player. No matter who you’re playing against, a strategy of generally betting big on the river will on balance be more profitable than betting small on the river.

         • Thanks Andrew for the advice.
           Experimenting and creative play will not be much help for me.
           The top prerequisite will be superior hand reading skill to try such strategy.
           I will be “blind” without crispy action on earlier streets which will define ranges.
           You are “forced” to make value on river too because you did not make it earlier.
           Frequently you do not protect your equity too.
           All those side effects you need to compensate with superior river decisions.
           I believe I could be better player because such strategy frequently results in “close” spots on river.

8. I think the underbet on the turn is really interesting and I like the reasoning. I just might have to start using this one in my arsenal.

   Obviously river is a fold. I can’t see him c/rai for value anything that you beat (assuming he’s competent).

   I am curious to what you think about his flop bet. It looks pretty weak being less than half pot. If you had a hand like AX or 55-88, would you just call like you did? If so, what hands are you raising this flop with, if any?

   • I probably wouldn’t ever raise the flop here against someone I consider a weak player. He’s going to give me a lot more information about his hand on later streets if I just call, and then I can make a better decision about what I want to do whether I have a strong hand, a weak hand, or something in between.

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