Overbetting For Value

7 thoughts on “Overbetting For Value”

1. In your opinion, was this a cooler for BB, or should BB have played it different?

   • Well played btw.

2. I don’t play at this level (or anywhere near it for that matter), but against most villains I’d think river has to be a fold. Of course that’s really exploitable, but both the turn and the river are terrible bluffing cards and I just don’t see hero bluffing in this spot. So villain mostly calls to split the pot, but I’m not sure villain would play Jx like this (unless it’s QJ) cause it’s tough to imagine villain calling with 9x imo.
   This is one of this spots, where villain knows that hero knows that villain knows that hero’s not repping very much. Eventhough folding Jx is really exploitable and villain will rarely have a better hand, it’s just such a crazy bluff to pull off and I really don’t think hero bluffs in this spot very often at all (also taking into account bet sizing).

   • Yeah, it’s not an easy fold to make, but it’s not an easy fold to exploit, either. The central problem for Villain is that he probably isn’t well-balanced with his flop check-calling range. Even though it’s trips and an open-ender, it’s towards the bottom of his range and not in particularly good shape vs. the range I’m representing. With this hand, I think makes sense to call the turn and fold the river.

     That does mean that QJ, 99, and maybe QQ (when I don’t have it) are the only hands with which he doesn’t check-fold river. That may be OK, though- it’s hard for me to be all that light betting this flop into two people.

     So while it’s a very tough spot for him and I can’t say that I would have folded, I think a fold probably is correct. As Christoph points out, the J is really not a card I’m likely to bluff.

3. TL:DR; It’s unlikely Hero to over bet bluff River given action on Turn and positions.

   I can’t see the suits at work as an FYI so if there is a flush, double flush, rainbow board I can’t tell and that would affect some of my decisions.

   I think villain narrowed down heros range to AA-88, QJ, AQ, AJ, K10. Maybe KQ. On the flop I think it’s an easy call for Villain with middle pair/OESD. Hitting trips on the turn is basically gin for him unless he was already behind (99, QQ, K10) so I think it is strange that he didn’t check raise turn.

   Villain check raising the turn:
   1. Hero has air: folding to check raise, Hero checks back River due to Turn CR.
   2. Hero has nutted hands: getting it all in on turn, Hero potting/over betting River.
   3. Hero has draw: might call depending on how good the draw is odds and in position.
   4. Hero has SD value hands: possible fold to Turn CR, checking back most Rivers due to Turn CR.

   Of all the hands that Villain could put you on the ones Villain beat on the river is AA, KK, 1010, 88, AQ, K10. Even if you add in J10, J9, 109. Of those hands how many over bet the pot by 60bb’s on the river to a double paired board from a Villain that called an overbet OOP?

   Every other combination Hero had of QQ, 99, QJ have Villain beat.

   I think Hero checks back any 9’s, single pair, air hands on the River and value bets/shoves his monsters. I think it was well played that you saw Villain had a difficult hand to fold on the River and got maximum value.

   Just for reference if I was Villain I think I would have check raised the Turn, lead River and at no point am I good enough yet to fold by the River. I just can’t process all of this at the table in real time yet.

   • Thanks for the thorough comment, Shawn. I think the ranges you are assigning to me are far too wide, though. In particular, I don’t think I’m overbetting any of what you are calling “showdown value hands” on the turn: AA, KK, AQ, even AJ and KT. This is what puts Villain in such a tricky spot even with a seemingly strong hand like trips: he doesn’t beat anything I’m betting for value. In fact, he’s way behind and possibly drawing dead. The only way he can justify calling is if he believes there are enough bluffs and semi-bluffs in my range to warrant calling anyway. That’s an extremely difficult thing to estimate, particularly given that there is another street yet to be played and he has only one out to a nutted hand (as we see, rivering a straight or full house can be a bad thing for him).

     If I am on a draw, there’s no way I call a turn check-raise. It’s too likely that I’m drawing thin to dead.

4. What are you going to do if he bets the turn?

   I’d have bet the flop with his hand, and bet the turn if I just get called.

   I don’t understand all the check-calling these days.

   Also, I don’t think it’s that hard a laydown on the river. Even if I can put some beatable holdings in your range, it’s got to be so razor thin that I can justify a fold so I don’t eat the variance.

   That’s the other thing I don’t understand these days – cash game players who play like they have infinite bankrolls. This was a horrible spot to donk off two buy-ins. There’s always going to be a better spot than this to invest that money.

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