Big Laydown?

16 thoughts on “Big Laydown?”

1. I think it all depends on how he’s gonna be playing KK+ in this spot. The important point in this hand is the turn action imo. If it were HU on the turn I think you’d have to call down (or ship), cause it’s quite possible he’s barreling with a hand like AK/AT especially given the fact that you just called twice. However that becomes a lot less likely with the BB still in the hand on the turn, so I think his turn betting range is quite strong in this spot like a good top pair or better or a big draw like AKss/ATss.
   So now on the river the question is if he’s gonna shove an overpair or a straight. I guess KTs is the only straight in his range, so you beat 6xAA/6xKK/4xKTs, for a total of 16 combos. And you loose to 3xQQ/3xJJ/1×99/1xJ9s/2x97s.

   Now some of those hands might or might not be in his range. That being said you need a really good read that he’s not shipping an overpair to make this fold, cause obv you only need to be right 1/3 times.

   • I’m glad I didn’t try to explain my logic last night, because you articulated it much better right here. I think KT is the only thing in his shoving range that I beat, and I think you’re right that he’s just not going to show up with a bluff. That last part is where I falter, because this is very close to the top of my range, and the whole thing hinges on whether he can be bluffing. It just didn’t feel like he was at the time, and I don’t think he’s shoving KK-AA for value.

     • You have to take into consideration what your range looks like to the villian. Can he put you on a boat? If he can then I think he’d put you on exactly 77. Is he the type of player who would try to make you fold 77?

2. Thanks Andrew. Great questions.
   I am not qualified to answer this question-I do not play 6max and I do not have idea what is good TAG at those stakes now.
   Is this the big laydown?
   Partially Hero answers this question on turn when he make decision to call.
   He consider a possibility that he is way behind and river will be his litmus test for his assumption.
   On river his litmus test shows RED and his hopes are dwindling .Before decent reg mucks he ask question if UTG is capable of bluffing him ? KK++ is bluffing hand in this context.
   Before HERO answers he ask another question if UTG knows or considers strong possibility of his 777full?
   Hero answers is -of course.Hero asks another questions:If UTG believes that Hero can fold his house?
   if his answer is yes -he should ask the main question: if UTG is capable of bluffing him in such circumstances?
   Hero final answer: It is “easy” laydown.

   • He’s definitely not trying to bluff me off of a full house. I think you’re right that KK-AA can’t be shoved for value, but I don’t see him turning them into a bluff either. I would expect either check-fold or check-call with those hands.

     • Thanks for the correction my term “bluffing hand” was misleading atleast.
       I meant that both HERO and UTG realize that KK-AA would not be shoved for value.
       Terminology is key to effective communication.

3. I would absolutely say that is a big lay-down. Anytime you fold a set/rivered boat on a board like this w/ a 100bb stack it is a big fold. That said, you may be correct. I’d love to hear your logic. Do you really think that your are that far behind his shoving range? This isn’t a nit at $.50/$1.00, he should have the occasional bluff in his range, and definitely worse value hands.

   • I think KTs is the only worse value hand, and I’m not 100% sure he always those this way. See Christoph’s comment and my response for my reasoning and thoughts on bluffs.

4. Even if you think KTs is the only hand in his range you beat, there are 4 combos of those and six combos of QQ/JJ. Thus you win 40% of the time against those hands and should call.

   Even if you deweight KTs (don’t see why you should), that is counterbalanced by the fact that he might open KTo some of the time, and he might be shoving KK-AA some of the time.

   • Add 1×99 and 1xJ9s and it starts getting really close. Hero’d beat 4 combos and lose to 8 so he’d just barely not get the prize he’d need to call, but only if you rule out bluffs and thin value shoves 100%.

   • Yeah I do feel less good about this fold after discussing it in the comments. I don’t generally consider myself a “feel” player, nor do I consider that a particularly meaningful concept, but I will say that it felt right at the time. That could have been a subtle timing tell that I picked up on subconsciously, or it could have been me having a bad night and seeing monsters.

5. Great post, thanks. Coming out of your self-described sparse posting last week, you’ve have a few great posts and some fantastic comments recently. The number of comments seem to be up as well (WSOP TV appearance effect?).

   Andrew, are there any meta-game reasons to call here? How long had you been playing with this villian? I am thinking there is some marginal utility in calling to define his range, and using that information for some positive expectation later on in the session, even if he has the goods at showdown and you have to reload. Obviously you don’t make crying calls in most hands just to see his cards but does having such a strong hand make this a consideration for you? I realize its a small factor, but do you allow that to enter your thinking in the moment?

   Don’t laugh, I’m new at this game. Thanks as always for your blog and the commentors who make the site.

   • Thanks, pie. And, since you mention it, thanks to everyone who’s contributed to these great discussions. I’ve found them helpful myself.

     Your question isn’t at all silly. In fact, if the spot were actually too close to decide one way or the other, I would call to see his hand. I wouldn’t learn anything if he had QQ, but it would significant if I saw AA or a busted flush draw or something that I wasn’t expecting that would change the way I thought about his game.

6. I’m all for hero folds but this most certainly isn’t one of them.

   Villain can easily shove KK-AA for value on this river since he expects hero to raise sets/2pairs at some point on the flop or turn.

   This is a snapcall, i’m really surprised you folded.

   You are folding 100000% the top of your range here and there’s no reason he cant vbet worse or decide you’re not going to hero with KQ or AQ and shove some missed spades or whatever.

   • FWIW AA-KK is 12 combos, KTs is 4 combos

     Even if he only shoves AA-KK 1/3 the time, that’s still 7 hand combos you’re ahead of vs 7 you lose to (3 JJ, 3 QQ, 1 99)

     Given his value range is 7 hand combos you only need to be ahead of 3.5 boat value shoves to call getting 2:1.

     This assumes he has no bluffing river range as well.

     Even if he only played 50% of KTs, shoved 1/3 of AA-KK and NEVER bluffed river, it’d still be a call.

     • I hate smart people.

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