You guys put me in my place earlier this week, so let’s see what you think of this one. All of the Villains, but especially the big blind, are among the tighter and more straight-forward regulars who play in this game.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $6.00 BB (7 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 ($330)
CO ($1263.05)
Button ($1290)
SB ($600)
BB ($956.50)
UTG ($645)
Hero (MP1) ($907)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9
, A
1 fold, Hero bets $24, 1 fold, CO calls $24, Button calls $24, 1 fold, BB calls $18
Flop: ($99) 5
, 10, 3
(4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $77, CO calls $77, 1 fold, BB calls $77
Turn: ($330) 9
(3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, CO checks
River: ($330) 9 (3 players)
BB bets $250, Hero folds, 1 fold
Total pot: $330 | Rake: $3
Results:
BB didn’t show
Outcome: BB won $327
I felt crazy folding this, but I had a lot of trouble putting BB on a hand that I beat. His flop overcall looks like a draw, but I don’t see him bluffing into two players on the river when the board comes out so innocuously. Likewise I think he’s unlikely to hold the sorts of second-best hands that could value bet this river, especially for near-pot. Even if he plays AT or JJ this way pre-flop, I don’t know if he’d bet them this way on the river. The most plausible scenario I can think of for him value betting a worse hand is if he has like 9s 8s or something. So I guess I’m putting him on T9 or a slowplayed set.
Meh, putting that in writing makes me feel silly. 9s8s is probably more likely than T9, given the 9 on the board, and while I’m sure he’s capable of slowplaying a set in this spot, I’d expect him to raise the flop at least as often. That’s an awfully narrow range to put him on, and while both bluffing and thin value betting scenarios are pretty remote, so are the hands that beat me. Thanks for your help!
9s8s is more likely than T9s as there are precisely one combo of 98s and zero combos of T9s possible, given your hand and the board. If he can have 98o and T9o you can use simple combinatorics to estimate the possible combos, and then use your intuition to discount from that number:
T9 has one 9 and three T kickers for a total of 3 combinations possible.
98 has one 9 and four 8 kickers for a total of 4 combinations possible.
Obviously he can have up to 9 combinations of set, which we would have to discount up to 75% of the time to make a call neutral EV (assuming his spaz/value bet other worse hands to this amount is zero).
I’m gonna think through the hand later and post my thoughts, but just as a quick note, villain never overcalls the flop with 98o, so the only 98 he could have is 98ss. But I think he can definitely have T9o, with the odds he gets pf.
Yeah, I agree totally.
It’s a really interesting spot because the river range is so very very tight against some player-types (i.e. EV = -$250); some will routinely fold T9o either preflop or on the flop rather than over-call in either spot. In contrast, the preflop range can be very wide for other player-types. The player type with the wider range are also just the type that might try an air-ball bluff with a marginal made hand on this board texture, and could easily have a wide range.
I still don’t like this fold because we’re at the ubertop of our range and I could presumably see him valuebetting JJ or even AT just because it’s so unlikely he’s beat and a FD missed. At 2/4 and 3/6 ppl just love to hero in my experience, so I think it’s a pretty safe value-bet here. You can easily have a JTs type hand that might be tempted to call river.
The multi-way aspect is in your favor for him having less of a bluffing range here, but I don’t see why he can’t valuebet JJ or AT since he’s never behind except a ridiculous hand like T9, A9 or 98.
I think we can completely remove sets from BBs range, so its only 4 hand combos you trail, meaning he only needs to valuebet worse 20% of the time (AT and JJ) and never bluff for a call to be ok.
I just really hate folding when you’ve shown this much weakness and CO clearly doesn’t have a strong hand. BB should be bluffing w/ his missed draws here at least sometimes, and he should valuebet JJ and probably AT as well.
Given your statement he’s tight I think you can remove T9o from his range and he almost certainly folds the flop after a bet+call with T9o.
So yeah, i’m calling.
What i’m also curious of is how you’re playing AA here. If you’re ever checking the turn I have to imagine it’s with the intention of calling river at least sometimes right?
If you think your plan would be to b/f the turn with AA, which is how 90% of regs are going to play AA – he should remove pairs QQ+ from your range by the river so he should have a worse value-betting range than A9 easily.
I really don’t see how calling this river could be incorrect given you literally can’t have a stronger hand as played than A9 and there’s no reason his range cant have bluffs/worse vbets.
I agree with what you said. If he’s valuebetting AT/JJ in this spot – and in my opinion there’s no reason why he shouldn’t do that – then you can’t fold. I agree with Andrew that he probably won’t be bluffing very often in this spot, but you beat enough of hands that he could be value betting with to call. I would expect him to rather bet like 175 or something with Tx/JJ but you’d need a very good read on his tendencies to rule those out just because of the bet size.
The chances of BB having TT, 55 or T9 approach zero.
With any of those hands, a straightforward player would have bet the turn (shoving would best given BB’s SPR). He’s OOP in a very active three-way with an SPR < 2, and the board is deteriorating into a reverse-implied-odds swamp.
Straightforward players appear straightforward precisely because they always bet in exactly these kinds of situations.
Hard to argue with that. To be fair, though, it’s not like I think those are super plausible hands for him to hold on the river. I’m just comparing the unlikelihood of them to the unlikelihood of him bluffing or value betting worse.
I am curious what hands you think the villain thinks will plausible be calling his bet?
A straight-forward player doesn’t necessarily “think” about the hands that might call his bet. He just sees a boat and so he bets largish.
I think you’re conflating “straightforward” with “level 1”.
A lot of “straightforward” players are very good readers. It’s just that their natural style is not terribly tricky. They tend to bet when they think they have the best hand and not bet when they think they don’t. You’re assuming they don’t put any thought at all into determining whether they have the best hand, and that’s just not the case.
AT, KTs, QTs, JTs and possibly pairs < TT like 88/77 if hero has stationy tendencies.
Given action its just so unlikely that a hand like JJ/AT is beat that I don't see why you woudln't value-bet.
I also think you need to have a slightly wider than boat valuebetting range here because you so rarely make a boat, and will have some missed draws here some %.
Do realize that Hero's hand looks like air, and CO's hand looks like a 10 or worse pair. I don't see why BB wouldn't say:
"I have JJ…UTG has air, but CO might hero call putting me on a draw or just not like folding top pair for 1 bet".
I actually think Foucault is not the villain that BB is even considering value-betting for, because the only hand we could have that could even consider calling a river bet is rivered trip 9s, any other hand we'd have bet the turn for value.
I think Foucault you want to say something different about “the tighter and more straight-forward regulars who play in this game”.
I think Facault you want to say that there are regulars at this level with “huge” leaks.
And your good fold is just a confirmation???.
So if you were the BB, you wouldn’t bet this river with AT or JJ? I’m pretty sure I would play the hand the same if I was the BB and I had AT (I would probably 3-bet with JJ). I’m not betting or raising this flop. Since you bet the flop, I would check the turn to you. When everyone checks behind, it looks like everyone has given up. A9 is vastly under-repped in this spot and I can’t imagine him putting you on a hand that strong (obviously it is a possibility but you having a 9 is not that likely given the 2 on board). It really looks like the CO had a busted FD or 5X and it looks like you probably have 2 overs like KQ or AX.
But I’m not the Villain. This (admittedly questionable) fold was based on a belief that his range is likely to be more polarized when he bets with this sizing on the river.
Also I disagree that the CO’s hand looks that much like a busted FD. I think he often bets his draws on the turn.
Thanks for the comment!
Great analysis from all.
Hi, Andrew, there is a question from Sergey Sytnikov from PokerMoscow:
I’ve heard one frase in some training video, it sounds like ‘In low-limit people abuse calls, but in hi-limit they abuse folds’. I think this is that case. Andrew’s just found the reason for fold.
Really, from his opponent’s view, the Andrew’s line in this hand is so weak that by the river he can’t resist temptation to steal the pot on floating.
I’ll try to argue from the BB’s point of view, who has, for example, draw. Flop call by pot odds, check on the turn to see what will opponents do (in case of increase to combo draw maybe even to play check/raise). After the check of preflop raiser on turn it seems he has nothing, because of the board is scared and he should protect his strong hand (if he has any) from draws… Check behind from cutoff is also can be a sign of weakness. It turns out that on the one hand BB has only draw, but on the other hand he can reliably rep the strong hand on the river, because he was the only one whos checks didn’t signify his weakness (from that position he could check with strong hands).
River. The river is a blank per se (opponents can think that after checks on the turn one more 9 changed nothing). What must BB do on the blank river with busted draw and weak opponents? Yes, he must bet. How much? He must maximize his fold equity. So, his bet must be like a value bet, for example, like with full house. So, he must bet much enough. And he did. For successful his bluff must win at about 45%. Here I think BB can estimate it about 50%.
So, BB can have not only monsters and medium hands like AT and JJ, but also flash draw with Ace or 86ss. Imo, top three-of-a-kind will beat here more than a half of BB’s bat range. I would definitely make call.
Thanks for the question. I agree that it is a good spot for him to bluff. Against a better player, I would have called. One problem I had is that I doubted this guy would bluff a busted flush draw into two people on the river. Not that it’s a bad spot, just that he wouldn’t know how to take advantage of a good spot.
Secondly, I’m not sure he would use this bet sizing. You say his bet sizing must maximize his fold equity, but that’s not true. The ideal bet sizing gives him the best risk:reward ratio, not necessarily the most fold equity. In other words, if a $100 bet folds 80% of hands and a $200 bet folds 90% of hands, the $100 bet is better. If he’s putting us on busted draws, he wouldn’t need to bluff for as much as he did.