That’s Not How You Play the Nuts

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($424.85)
UTG+1 ($167)
MP1 ($435)
Hero (MP2) ($1165.50)
MP3 ($638.40)
CO ($753)
Button ($744.75)
SB ($606.60)
BB ($433)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 5, 5
3 folds, Hero bets $8, 4 folds, BB raises to $32, Hero calls $24

Flop: ($66) 4, 7, 3 (2 players)
BB bets $48, Hero calls $48

Turn: ($162) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $66, BB raises to $132, Hero calls $66

River: ($426) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $953.50 (All-In), 1 fold

Total pot: $426 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero didn’t show 5, 5 (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won $423

I don’t see him min check-raising anything worse than the Ac for value on the turn, and even then, I think he just bets it 99% of the time. That makes it an easy float and half-pot bluff shove on the river. FWIW I think calling the flop is pretty questionable unless you’re capable of turning your hand into a bluff sometimes. Even with a gutshot, 55 no club probably doesn’t have enough equity to play for showdown value alone.

10 thoughts on “That’s Not How You Play the Nuts”

  1. I’d really have to know my opponent to make that play, because I don’t think most NLH players would fold here even if they suspected the straight flush. Between the turn float and the river bet, you have to be right at least 56% of the time.

    Well maybe not that often, because maybe sometimes he shoves the river, and you fold. But we don’t know how often he does that here. It might well be 0%.

    • Sorry, I didn’t mean to imply that I intended to bluff him off of the Ace. In fact, it’s what I’m trying to represent moreso than the straight flush. But I don’t think he’d play either of those hands this way, and I especially don’t think he’d check the river with them even if he had min-c/r’ed the turn.

      • I guess I was a little confused when you wrote, “I don’t see him min check-raising anything worse than the Ac”. 😉

        • Sorry I meant for value. Like I don’t think he’s playing the Kc this way. I think he’s almost always bluffing.

  2. Andrew,

    What do you think his c/mr range is on the turn? Obviously it’s polarized btwn nuts and air – i’m just pretty surprised to even see bluffs here.

    I really cant see you floating this flop very often and then having much of a bet/folding range on this turn – making it odd to think he’d try and run a bluff here.

    That’d be my justification for folding turn, aside from complete floats with no real equity, your turn betting range should be very strong.

    The only bluffs in your range should be floats / sd value turned into bluffs, and I think it’s odd that he’d try to c/r you off that range given how often you’ll just have a good flush here.

    Maybe i’m giving villian too much credit for thinking here – I just don’t expect most players to have a b/f range on this turn – making a c/r kinda pointless as a bluff…

    • I think his range is like only bluffs, really (which could include stuff he’s turning into bluffs- not necessarily air). I float just because I think on the outside chance that he isn’t bluffing he’ll let me know on the river and I can save money.

      Why do you think I wouldn’t be turning hands into bluffs here? There’s plenty of incentive to do it. The second he checks the turn, the nuts goes way down as a percentage of his range. Thus I’m betting turn and shoving river with whatever.

      • I (personally) don’t see a whole lot in your range that ‘needs’ to bluff except pairs that you’re deciding to turn into bluffs.

        I think most of your flop call range has either made a flush or thinks it was strong enough to justify a flop call that it shoudln’t need to bluff river – basically hands like TT-QQ that probably aren’t going to bluff river a ton because the range you fold out is very narrow. Given that TT-QQ both made sets I doubt you turn them into bluffs, so that leaves super light floats with 55, 66, 88 or 99 no club, or complete air (but you’re not floating like T9hh on this flop)

        That’s not a very wide range of hands to be turning into a bluff vs the combos of sets and flushes you make by the river.

        So – the main reason I don’t think ur turning many hands into bluffs is I don’t see you getting to the river with many hands that need to bluff.

        I think shoving is obv good/fine once he checks river cuz he never has the nuts.

  3. Andrew,

    First time post, but have been reading your posts on and off for a year now.
    Do you think about the line you are taking? ( taking from his perspective )
    What do you think he is thinking of your call of his min raise on the turn?
    If you really had the nutz there, why are you overbetting the pot on the river?

    What do you think he puts your range at, considering you min raise to open?

    • Good question, motz. I think my line is not inconsistent with having the Ac, and most importantly I think it’s a line he’s very unlikely to interpret as a bluff. For me to be bluffing the river, I’d have to have called the turn check-raise with air, and who in his right mind would do that?!?!

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