I thought it was me.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (MP2) ($1886.10)
MP3 ($505.70)
CO ($1569.40)
Button ($400)
SB ($145.90)
BB ($188)
UTG ($1787.10)
UTG+1 ($400)
MP1 ($562.60)
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8
, 8
UTG bets $14, 2 folds, Hero calls $14, 2 folds, Button calls $14, 2 folds
Flop: ($48) 9
, 4, 8 (3 players)
UTG bets $28, Hero raises to $77, 1 fold, UTG calls $49
Turn: ($202) 6 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $145, UTG calls $145
River: ($492) 6 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $350, UTG raises to $844, Hero calls $494
Total pot: $2180 | Rake: $3
Results:
UTG had 9
, 9 (full house, nines over sixes).
Hero had 8, 8 (full house, eights over sixes).
Outcome: UTG won $2177
His range for getting to the river is quite narrow. I think it’s 44, 99, AsA, KsK, and a few non-nut flushes like KsQs or something. My plan was to check the river unless the board paired, and to bet-fold a non-spade river that paired the board. So there’s exactly one river card, the 6s, on which I bet and call this check-raise.
I’m not sure how I feel about his sizing. If I were in his shoes, I’d have check-shoved, at least against opponents who aren’t capable of a big laydown. Then again, I would have folded if he’d check-shoved, so I guess this was better.
What goes into your thinking of folding the 3rd stone nuts to a check / shove here… with the 1st stone nuts (quads) HIGHLY unlikely? How are you putting him precisely on 99 and not a flopped / rivered nut flush and / or lesser hands? Clearly, I’m not on that level of thinking yet, but I’d love to hear what goes into your would-be laydown?
I just don’t think he’s raising anything but 99 on the river. Both of our ranges are extremely strong given the action to the river. Even with a flush he’s not ahead of my range, though he may be getting the odds to call since I can have a few bluffs. But he certainly can’t raise it for value. Against a player capable of turning a hand into a check-raise bluff, I’d either check behind or bet-call, but that move just isn’t in this guy’s arsenal.