No Results on This One

16 thoughts on “No Results on This One”

1. Yuck. I’m not good enough to fold here but it’s really hard for me to see him doing this as a bluff and a bluff is all you beat.

   • I actually decided he maybe could bluff, since my intention with the small river bet was to represent a blocking bet. Really I was hoping he called with some sort of medium pair, because that’s what I put him on when he bet 1/3 pot on the flop. There’s even some chance he turns a small pair into a bluff trying to get me off of like 99 or something, though I think he’s far more likely to call than to shove with such a hand.

     I was half-right. He did have a small pair on the flop, but it was 44, and he rivered a set, which is of course the single most likely explanation here (excepting the pre-flop 3-bet, which I think is pretty bad).

2. This is a weird hand, because both your range is so narrow and his is so polarized. It’s pretty tough for him to show up with A3, especially if you’ve been pretty in line and especially when you raise utg (even 5-handed), unless there’s other history you didn’t mention. So his value range to raise the river is really just 99/QQ/AQ (maybe), I would think. Raising AA/KK/KQ/JJ/TT here would not be good. The rest of his range has to be air, but that’s pretty contingent on the assumption that he interprets your small river bet as giving yourself room to fold to a raise or as a blocking bet with like TT. I expect that he’s pretty heavily weighted to sets, but I think he has to be bluffing 1/6 of the time. I don’t really think you can b/f with just a pot-sized bet left on the river, so given your bet-sizing, I call.

3. Tough decision.
   The thing is that there is so little chance he is bluffing, given your pot odds on the river and given his turn check; but at the same time you have so good pot odds that it’s tough to fold.
   Thinking it through, I think a fold is better, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see A3 (which could very well be in his 3betting range if he 3bet 10% in a 6-max, depending on his 3betting tendencies).
   If he is advanced and tricky, given his stack size on the turn, he could check to set up a slight overbet pot on the river with AQ or better, but that is quite rare, and anyway that beats you.
   I would say fold, but I don’t think I could do it in real time.
   I hope you called and will show us the result.

   • In theory, the fact that I’m getting good pot odds doesn’t mean he should never bluff, only that he should bluff very rarely (in proportion to the odds he is offering me and his value betting range, in fact).

     I’m about to post the results in my next comment reply.

4. if villain is tricky, that’s a good turn to slowplay sets/2 pair right?

   • That’s a good question, and a tricky one to answer. I would argue that it is not, though I wouldn’t be surprised if Villain thought it was. If you think about my range for check-calling the flop, it really doesn’t include hands that could improve the river, which would be one of the main advantages of slowplaying. If hands like AK and AJ were in my range, then checking turn could make sense in the hopes that I would either bluff the river or improve to a hand that could pay off the shove.

     My range both is and looks like mostly one pair, which could be as good as AA or as weak as 88, with some outside chance of a slowplayed set of my own. I think I’m actually more likely to call a turn shove than a river shove with a hand like 88 (though I’d probably call neither), as I think hands like AK or AJ are more likely in his turn shoving range than his turn-checking-then-river-shoving-range.

     So in conclusion, I thought it was unlikely but not impossible that he was slowplaying the turn.

5. Your M is 44.4 which means villain river’d a set and you should fold. A practical use for M imo.

   • 44.5 if you’re gonna round, which i guess means villian has 45?

6. I’m definitely calling here. You’re getting 5 to 1 and based on your read, villian can certainly be out of line often enough here for a call to be best. Plus, if you’re planning on bet/folding here, when getting 5 to 1, your bet is going to be ridiculously exploitable…

7. I didn’t have a chance to read this before you posted the result, but I think calling is 100% correct, and not for the reasons anyone posted.

   I think it’s 100% correct because it’s a shootout, which puts an enormous premium on eliminating players. You have a chance here to do just that, and you’ll still have a healthy stack if it fails.

   I’m not sure anything else really matters, to be honest.

   The only way I could fold here is if I know the player well enough to believe he never makes small all-in bluffs, and I don’t think 10% three-bettors are likely to be that type.

   • Hey Lin,

     I’m not sure how this being a shootout should make calling more or less correct. The fact remains that we have a bluff-catcher and villains bluffing range given this action should be ridiculously narrow.

     I mean, we rep Qx so normally here, and who expects someone to fold Qx getting 5:1?

   • I’m not sure I follow. Is your argument that there is some premium to eliminating players in a shootout such that even a slightly -cEV play could be correct? Or simply that unlike in other tournament situations, you should pass up fewer marginally +cEV plays in a shootout? The former doesn’t seem intuitively right to me, but the latter does. I still don’t see it as being a decision-rule here, though.

8. Haven’t read the other responses but nobody bluffs offering 5:1

   This is 44 or a tarp like 95% of the time. Yeah you’re toward the top of your range, but unless villain is a complete spazz you’re good here basically never.

9. I already read your answer, and so can’t pretend that I wouldn’t have called like a donk (only thinking I’m beat by A3). But one of my excuses for calling was that I didn’t understand why you’d just called the flop. I think I’d min raise there with any queen I called the flop with, and like 100% with AQ. My main reasons being: 1) If he does have a hand 33-88 he’s not betting again unless he hits. 2) KQ, KJs, QJs and JTs are all well in his range. 3) He’s not folding a Q, and is unlikely to fold TT or JJ.

   That means it’s hard to call if a K, 9, 8 hits. J, T, 7, or 2 also isn’t great (which is a lot of cards :). And anything else only gives action as bluffs or made sets. The other thing is that a plain call means you basically give him two free cards, if he wants them.

   Anyway, just curious on your reasoning there, if you have time.

   • Good question, James. For one thing, I was putting him on a more narrow 3-betting range than you are, and more narrow than it was, apparently. I was thinking that a lot of second best hands like JJ or KQ would either shove the turn or pay off a bet on the river for close to what I would stack them for by raising the flop anyway. When I am behind, it’s generally to 2 or 3 outs, so I don’t mind the free cards to much. Plus checking gives him a chance to bluff or turn a second best hand with AK/AJ. That was my thinking, anyway- it can’t promise it was right!

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