Well, He Can’t Have the Ace Flush

20 thoughts on “Well, He Can’t Have the Ace Flush”

1. Did you fold because he had you covered? His line certainly could represent chasing a flush, but then again he could be shoving the same hand, a5, or maybe even ak. I don’t think I could get away from that hand.

   • I definitely don’t see him raising a worse hand for value when the flush gets there. In fact I’m questioning how many flushes he can raise for value. When he raises, I only beat a bluff, and the question is how often he can really have a flush here. This isn’t a guy who is going to call on the turn with a bare flush draw, so he’d have to have either a pair or another draw to go along with it. I have the Ah, so the more I think about it, I think a straight flush is about the only hand that makes sense for him.

     • Vs you he obv cant raise very few flushes for value on the river, but you aren’t every villain.

       • can’t edit, but to clarify:

         Even though he *shouldn’t* raise worse flushes here (thus making his river raise a bit more suspect) because you’re v rarely bet/calling with worse, doesn’t mean he wont.

         There’s plenty of villains who aren’t bet/folding a set or 67 here to make raising any flush fine.

         Now here’s the kicker, with the Ah do you consider a 3b bluff, or does the presence of 67hh deter this

         • I don’t think there’s enough behind to make a a 3b bluff.

           • Yeah, it did briefly cross my mind, but I agree with Rob. Had there still been 2500 or more behind, I could see shoving it. The bluff shove is much much much better without the straight flush possibility out there, though, since the more I think about it the more I think that’s the single most plausible hand for his line.

2. Did you give any thought to over-betting the turn?

   • I didn’t, though perhaps I should have. It’s not the greatest overbet spot in the world, but it’s not the worst either. I tend to overbet in situations where I want to represent a narrow range. Here I think something a little less than pot represents a lot more bluffs/semi-bluffs/marginal hands against which he can afford to be a hero with one pair or a worse two-pair, and that’s what we want more than anything.

3. Do you ever consider checking the river when the flush gets there?

   • It’s worth considering, but the results of this hand don’t change my opinion that betting is better. Prior to getting raised, I actually think it’s quite unlikely that he gets to the river with a flush draw. I’ve made two big bets, and I’m holding the Ah, so there are few ways for him to have more than a bare flush draw, which I expect to fold the turn. The best reason to check the river would be if I thought that a third heart meant I was now behind his range, but I don’t believe that’s true.

     The next consideration is whether he’ll pay off a river bet with enough worse hands, since the heart has to be a scare card for him as well. Given that the turn was the Ace, though, I don’t think he has to put me on such a narrow range for barreling. In other words, I would probably bluff with a number of holdings on this turn, not just flush draws, meaning that I can get to the river with a lot of hands that are still air even when the flush comes in. I’m sure he’d expect me to represent the flush with any air that I still have in my range, meaning that he ought to be able to talk himself into a call with a hand like A8 or even JT if he really feels like a hero.

     Finally, I have to wonder whether I’m opening myself up to a bluff-raise. I can’t be sure, but I think it’s rather difficult for him to bluff-raise me here, as I could easily have the flush. More importantly, I think he rarely needs to bluff. There isn’t much air he could get to the river with, and given what I said above how I could still be bluffing, there isn’t a lot of need for him to turn a pair into a bluff. If anything, I think checking increases the risk of my getting bluffed out, since I don’t think I can call a bet.

     Very good question, thanks.

     • You aren’t opening yourself to a bluffraise here – you are just bet/folding the bottom of your value range.

       With the Ah you really can’t be exploited here. Aside from the fact that very little of his range needs to bluff, you do get to the river with enough flushes that b/f AJ is not a big deal.

       I mean, if he’s gonna sit there with KJ and go “okay i’ll turn this into a bluff to fold out Ax and sets”, you have enough combos of Axhh that he’s really not doing well vs your range.

       I think this is a lot more interesting if you have JThh and the action goes like this.

       • Agreed on all counts.

4. I also was wondering about check-call on the river. You don’t suspect a different aces up here?

5. Had the turn not been an Ace, how would you have played? How often would you be looking to bluff raise the river when the flush comes in?

   • I think I’d have check-called a heart on the turn but bet any other card. I don’t understand the second part of your question- why would I be bluff raising?

     • Let’s say it was a black King on the turn. Your plan is to bet (bet/call I’m assuming). Then the river is the 5 of Hearts, again. Any thought to turning your hand into a bluff there, especially with the A of Hearts, or is there just too much value in the pair at that point?

       • I think the pair is still very likely to be good, but maybe not good enough to value bet. I don’t think I’d be bluff, and it would be close between check-calling and check-raising. Unfortunately I have no idea how often he’d turn a pair into a bluff. He actually ought to do it quite often, given that pairs will be the bottom of his range and I’ll often have showdown value when I don’t bluff this river.

6. KThh, QThh, 9Thh do u think he is not raising these on the flop, because you are 270bb deep and he is IP?

   I guess that is read dependent?

   • Good question, but it’s hard to say. I didn’t have any read on how he’d play a draw with deep stacks, and I think folding or raising are both very viable options. I certainly don’t eliminate those hands from his range for lack of a raise.

7. I think you’re beat often enough to make folding right, precisely because the board and your strong betting should be scary to him.

   It’s a situation where to put Villain on the various hands that beats you, you have to assume that he may have taken an inferior or inconsistent line of play on his way to the river. But fortunately, opponents do that with some regularity.

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