Last week’s double float cost me about half my chips on the first hand of the $700 NAPT-Los Angeles satellite and was not so popular with the commenters. Here’s a similar bluff somewhat deeper in the same tournament this week. Our Villain is a slightly better target: I couldn’t tell you much about his playstyle, but overall I believe he’s a better player than last week’s Villain. I described the previous opponent as a 3rd tier Pocket Fiver, and this guy would be closer to top tier, maybe tier 1.5 😉
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 530 Tournament, 250/500 Blinds 25 Ante (8 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP2 (t38150)
CO (t19145)
Button (t46070)
Hero (SB) (t15484)
BB (t40291)
UTG (t10654)
UTG+1 (t16138)
MP1 (t29062)
Hero’s M: 16.30
Preflop: Hero is SB with A
, K
1 fold, UTG+1 bets t1250, 4 folds, Hero calls t1000, 1 fold
Flop: (t3200)Â 4
, 8
, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks
Turn: (t3200)Â J (2 players)
Hero bets t2468, UTG+1 calls t2468
River: (t8136)Â 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t6666, 1 fold
Total pot: t8136
Results:
Hero didn’t show A, K (nothing).
Outcome: Hero won t8136
My guess is that he had a medium pocket pair, maybe as strong as T’s, or possibly paired an 8. My call out of the SB correctly slowed him down on the flop. I expected him to call any pair on the turn but fold hands worse than like JT on the river. It increases the profitability of this bluff considerably that he probably shoves a lot of JT-type hands and slowplayed overpairs when I bet the turn.
Oh and for those who question whether I’d actually play a big pair or similar hand this way and with this bet sizing, here’s an earlier hand from the same tournament (Villain was not at the table to witness this):
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 530 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (8 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
MP1 (t9200)
MP2 (t10400)
CO (t12173)
Button (t12800)
Hero (SB) (t9417)
BB (t10750)
UTG (t18310)
UTG+1 (t7275)
Hero’s M: 62.78
Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
3 folds, MP2 bets t300, 2 folds, Hero calls t250, 1 fold
Flop: (t700) J, 8, 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 checks
Turn: (t700)Â J (2 players)
Hero bets t567, MP2 calls t567
River: (t1834)Â 3 (2 players)
Hero bets t1550, MP2 calls t1550
Total pot: t4934
Results:
Hero had A, A (two pair, Aces and Jacks).
MP2 mucked 7, 7 (two pair, Jacks and sevens).
Outcome: Hero won t4934
how are we not 3betting both hands pre? the AK hand i’m really not going to love playing post flop OOP against a top tier villian, especially with the depth of stacks
the AA hand seemslike a slam dunk 3bet as it can easily look like a resteal, and with ~100 BB stacks it seems really bad not to be building a pot in a spot where we can get called or even 4b on the light side
Meh. Obviously there’s nothing wrong with 3-betting either of these, but in both cases I feel like a 3-bet would look very very strong. In the first instance, I may occasionally get him to fold some smallish pairs but he’s also getting away from AQ/AJ if I 3-bet. Especially considering that I can get away with stuff like this post-flop, I prefer calling one.
Second one is a lot closer, but honestly I don’t think people are expecting re-steals before the ante stages of a tournament, when stacks are still so deep. If I 3-bet him and he calls with 77, I think he plays it primarily for set value post-flop. We’re too deep for me to want to play for stacks post-flop with AA even in a 3-bet pot, and I think for similar reasons he’s more likely to overvalue one pair in a 2-bet pot than in a 3-bet pot.
That may very well be giving too much credit t a tourney donk, though….