From the same HU match:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com
Hero (BB) ($1875)
SB ($2356.50)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 3, 6
SB bets $20, Hero calls $10
Flop: ($40) 2, 5, 9 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $30, Hero calls $30
Turn: ($100) 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB bets $80, Hero raises to $321, SB calls $241
River: ($742) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks
Total pot: $742 | Rake: $0.50
Results:
SB had 3, 4 (high card, ten).
Hero had 3, 6 (high card, ten).
Outcome: Hero won $741.50
Ship it. I won’t make the same mistake he did:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com
Hero (BB) ($2675.50)
SB ($2325)
Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, 3
SB bets $20, Hero raises to $80, SB raises to $225, Hero raises to $600, SB calls $375
Flop: ($1200) 7, Q, 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, SB checks
Turn: ($1200) J (2 players)
Hero bets $444, SB calls $444
River: ($2088) K (2 players)
Hero bets $1631.50 (All-In), SB calls $1281 (All-In)
Total pot: $4650 | Rake: $0.50
Results:
SB had 9, 10 (straight, King high).
Hero had 4, 3 (high card, King).
Outcome: SB won $4649.50
Yes, I should have bet the flop. I like the river shove, though. Sucks that he hit an 8-outer.
What did you put him on, when he called the turn?
Just really doesn’t seem like you’re getting away with this bluff enough to be profitable.. You’ve got less than a PSB left, how much of his turn-calling range (given preflop action) is really folding on the river there? A whole bunch of feasible draws got there, some two pairs got there which surely aren’t folding etc..
It’s a decent shove if you put him on like 88-1010, but if you put him on that and have it beat, are you really shoving, or value betting less?
Good questions. Unfortunately this is a tough one to comment on because there’s a lot of metagame here. For instance, this was the first hand I’d 5-bet, though he’d been 4-betting a fair bit of late.
I think there’s a good chance he folds if he has less than a pair of Kings on the river. How often will that happen? I’m not sure, but I think if he has 2 pair+ on the turn, he’s probably (though not definitely) shoving it.
To clarify, I was talking about the second hand btw.