How to Spot a Level 3 Thinker

My latest poker strategy article, How to Spot a Level 3 Thinker, has just been published in the April issue of 2+2 Magazine. The introduction describes the genesis of the article:

One of my first articles for Two Plus Two Magazine, Level-Headed Thinking, was a brief introduction to the various “levels” of thinking about poker and how they should affect your decision-making at the table. When teaching and coaching, I regularly talk through a hand by explaining that against a Level 1 thinker I would do one thing, but that if I thought my opponent were on Level 2, then I would do something else instead.

In other words, when giving advice about a hand that someone else played, I feel like I can explain what factors to consider and how to respond given a certain read or set of assumptions, but only the player at the table can supply the read itself. One of my students recently asked me a question that gave me pause: “How am I supposed to know which level my opponent is thinking on?”

I hemmed and hawed a bit and told him that you just sort of get a feel for these things, but I knew this was an inadequate answer, and I resolved to think through some of the concrete evidence that I use to form such reads. What you’ll find here is the result of that exercise, an attempt to organize some of the most common behaviors that you can observe in your opponents that will give you clues as to how they think and play.

One of the “tells” that I point to for a Level 3 thinker is what might look like a surprisingly tight check behind on the river. This could simply indicate weak-tight play, but it may also reveal that the player is aware of how strong his hand looks and correctly decides not to value bet the bottom of his range, even when the absolute strength of the hand is quite high. Here’s an example of such a check that I made tonight:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

Button ($1625.25)
SB ($4574.35)
Hero (BB) ($1092)
UTG ($1020.35)
MP ($2066)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, 2
3 folds, SB bets $35, Hero calls $25

Flop: ($70) 6, A, A (2 players)
SB bets $50, Hero calls $50

Turn: ($170) J (2 players)
SB bets $140, Hero calls $140

River: ($450) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $450 | Rake: $3

Results:
SB had K, Q (one pair, Aces).
Hero had A, 2 (three of a kind, Aces).
Outcome: Hero won $447

When I call Villain’s big turn bet, I have either a bluff-catcher or a monster but pretty much never air or a draw. This is a spot where Villain will probably never check and call, because that would only be a good line for bluff-catching, and I don’t really have hands in my range that will need to bluff. I can call the river if he bets, since he could be bluffing, but I can’t bet when he checks. He is either giving up or check-raising, but unless I expect him to check-raise bluff often, which I don’t, then I can’t bet (if he is going to check-raise bluff, then I can bet-call.)