It’s not really fair to call the Villain in this hand a nit, but he’s one of the tightest winning 5/10 regulars anyway. That’s part of the reason I bet the turn against him, rather than just check-calling the turn as I might against a more aggressive player.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) ($2982)
BB ($970)
UTG ($969.50)
MP ($200)
CO ($275)
Button ($3271.65)
Preflop: Hero is SB with A
, 9
1 fold, MP bets $20, 1 fold, Button calls $20, Hero raises to $90, 2 folds, Button calls $70
Flop: ($210) 3, 9
, A (2 players)
Hero bets $177, Button calls $177
Turn: ($564) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $388, Button raises to $880, Hero calls $492
River: ($2324) K
(2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2124.65 (All-In), Hero folds
Total pot: $2324 | Rake: $3
Results:
Button shows 4, 4 (one pair, fours).
Outcome: Button won $2321
I told him in chat that 4’s were the best hand, but really even Kdx beats 44 by the river, so I doubt he believed me.
It’s pretty unlikely that I’ll have a flush by the river, but against a nit I don’t really consider calling with less. That’s the problem with exploitive play: it is itself exploitable.
Given your reading of Villain’s likely range, what’s the thought process in calling the turn bet?
That’s a good question. I suppose it’s pretty unlikely he ever gives up on the river. I do have four outs to a full house, but even assuming I stack him every time I hit, I’m still getting only about 8:1 between immediate and implied odds, which isn’t quite good enough. Folding the turn very well may be correct, or at least better than calling and folding river. Then again, I think he might give up if a fourth diamond comes on the river, in which case I could get to show my hand down about 20% of the time, which would make a big difference.
What about preflop and his fold to 3bet? If he’s a nit aren’t there only very very few flushes he could have here with the Ad out? KQ/QJ/JT maybe KJ and that’s it. I guess it depends on how nitty exactly I would think villain is, but that’s a really small value range. Even if you add 99. If only once in a while he plays 98/A3/A8 like this there’s no way you can fold imo. But again this spot is really read dependent I guess, so maybe if you got a read that he’s just not showing up with worse you should fold. I do agree that you should probably make your decision on the turn and either fold, or raise/call with the intention to call a shove.
Pre-flop, we are like 300BBs deep and he has the button, so I think his range is going to be pretty different than what his F3B% might suggest.
I doubt he raises the two-pairs on the turn, but even if he does, I seriously doubt he shoves the river with them.
Seeing him take this line – what adjustments will you make against him in the future (if any?)
Also against an aggressive player is part of the reason you think checking the turn is best because you do not want to get put in an awkward spot on the turn/river or is it because you believe they will try barrel you off if you check turn and no diamond comes on the river?
It probably won’t change much, actually. This is something he was able to get away with because we were very deep, and such situations aren’t going to come up all that often. I guess in general I’ll be more likely to call than raise for value/protection in certain spots since it seems he’s willing to make plays with pure air (less need to run him off an equity share) and to follow up a small bluff with a big one.
I’d check against a more aggressive player for a variety of reasons. For one, I don’t want to get raised off of my draw. For another, I think he’ll bluff more often and value bet worse.