I should be shoving the turn (for value), but this was still fun:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (4 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($1296.75)
UTG ($1000)
Hero (Button) ($2015)
SB ($4327)
Preflop: Hero is Button with A
, 4
1 fold, Hero bets $25, 1 fold, BB calls $15
Flop: ($55) J, 3, 2
(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $33, BB raises to $154, Hero calls $121
Turn: ($363) 9
(2 players)
BB bets $300, Hero calls $300
River: ($963) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Total pot: $963 | Rake: $2
Results:
Hero had A, 4 (one pair, twos).
BB had 6, 4 (one pair, twos).
Outcome: Hero won $961
The Ad is a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, I block one of his outs, but on the other hand, the nut flush draw is the most likely draw for him to have. Since he can’t have that, it does reduce the number of flushes in his range. I was just so sure based on his flop bet sizing…
Shoving the turn for “value”?
I think he’s calling with 6d4d if I shove the turn. And if he isn’t, that’s good too; since he didn’t shove a blank river, there’s no value in letting him see the river for free.
1) If my back-of-the-envelope calculations are correct, he *shouldn’t* be calling a turn push with 6d4d. Unless he somehow knows that spiking a 6 or a 4 will win him the pot. So even if his hand were face-up, I don’t think you could call a turn push a push for “value”.
2) More generally, not knowing what he had, shouldn’t you expect that when he calls a turn shove he almost always has a hand that beats ace high?
Really this is all just me quibbling with your description of the play as a “value” shove, not so much an argument against playing the hand that way.