My range for 3-betting an UTG raiser from UTG+1 isn’t going to be all that wide, and by the river, AK is probably closer to the bottom of it than the top:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($4925)
Button ($6246)
SB ($3023)
BB ($7794)
UTG ($5000)
Hero (MP) ($5000)
Preflop: Hero is MP with K
, A
UTG bets $150, Hero raises to $450, 4 folds, UTG calls $300
Flop: ($975) J
, 2, A
(2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $650, UTG calls $650
Turn: ($2275) J (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
River: ($2275) Q (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
Total pot: $2275 | Rake: $3
Results:
UTG had 10, A (two pair, Aces and Jacks).
Hero had K, A (two pair, Aces and Jacks).
Outcome: Hero won $2272
This check also assumes Villain is a good hand reader and all-around good player, capable of a disciplined fold and of checking hands stronger than AK here. I didn’t know any of that for sure, but I thought it was likely. He probably would have called the river with AT, though that doesn’t necessarily mean I should bet. Frankly, I don’t think his pre-flop call is all that good, and while AT is obviously the most likely hand to pay off a value bet, I wasn’t at all sure he even had it in his range.
I think the turn is a pretty clear check. I can’t expect to get three streets from AQ or AT, and I think if anything they are more likely to put money in on the river rather than the turn. I think I can value bet any river except a Q.
On the plus side, that hand may have helped me get paid on the river in this one:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $50.00 BB (6 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG ($4925)
MP ($6071)
CO ($3078)
Button ($7203)
SB ($5297)
Hero (BB) ($6565)
Preflop: Hero is BB with J, A
4 folds, SB bets $150, Hero raises to $400, SB calls $250
Flop: ($800) 2, J, 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $555, SB calls $555
Turn: ($1910) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks
River: ($1910) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1234, SB calls $1234
Total pot: $4378 | Rake: $3
Results:
SB mucked 9, 10 (one pair, tens).
Hero had J, A (one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: Hero won $4375
If he decides that I won’t make thin value bets on the river, then he can put me on a polarized range here and expect to see either a bluff or two pair plus, many of which would have bet again on the turn.