FTOPS Event 2: $240 PLO8 Knockout

Edit: Yeah, I’m an idiot. It was late when I posted this, and I did in fact calculate my pre-flop equity rather than my flop equity. I’m actually a 2:1 dog here, which is more what I expected. Thanks to qanda201 for pointing it out in the comments. I thought it seemed too good to be true.
Full Tilt Pot-Limit Omaha Tournament, 500/1000 Blinds (9 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t32863)
MP1 (t13444)
MP2 (t17933)
MP3 (t4420)
CO (t19270)
Button (t11849)
Hero (SB) (t20290)
BB (t16994)
UTG (t11219)

Hero’s M: 13.53

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, K, 2, 3
1 fold, UTG+1 bets t2500, 1 fold, MP2 calls t2500, 3 folds, Hero calls t2000, BB calls t1500

Flop: (t10000) 5, 10, J (4 players)
Hero checks, BB bets t10000, 2 folds, Hero raises to t17790 (All-In), BB calls t4494 (All-In)

Turn: (t38988) 8 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t38988) 8 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t38988

Results:
Hero had K, K, 2, 3 (flush, Jack high).
BB had 5, 7, Q, 5 (full house, fives over eights).
Outcome: BB won t38988

Shows what I know about this game. I was embarassed to even post this because I felt like I played this bad and got my money in bad, but turns out I’m a pretty substantial favorite:

Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
1,086,008 trials (Exhaustive)
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
KsKc2h3h 66.22% 558,343 719,281 0 322,512 864
5h7sQs5s 33.78% 205,548 366,727 0 215,856 864

My reasoning at the time was that he was either on a draw, in which case I had some of his outs and my Kings were good, or that most of my draws were live if he did have a made hand. Hard to say how I’d perform against his full range here, but I guess I get to write this one off to a bad beat!

Edit: Here’s the actual flop equity

Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
820 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 5cThJh
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins Hi Ties Hi Wins Lo Ties Lo
KsKc2h3h 37.56% 278 278 0 144 0
5h7sQs5s 62.44% 482 542 0 0 0

3 thoughts on “FTOPS Event 2: $240 PLO8 Knockout”

  1. I’m not sure I understand the equity calc. How can you possibly win the high 2x as often (719,281:366,727), with just ten outs and a backdoor straight draw? Are you sure this calc isn’t just the preflop equity?

  2. Yeah, I don’t know anything about that game, but it’s hard to believe you’re a 2:1 favorite to make a better hi by the river.

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