PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (9 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
BB ($1961)
Hero (UTG) ($2651.50)
UTG+1 ($2040)
MP1 ($2474)
MP2 ($3105)
MP3 ($1027.50)
CO ($2000)
Button ($1857)
SB ($2904)
Preflop: Hero is UTG with J
, A
Hero bets $80, 3 folds, MP3 calls $80, 3 folds, BB calls $60
Flop: ($250) 6
, 6
, 6
(3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $166, MP3 calls $166, BB calls $166
Turn: ($748) 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $444, 1 fold, BB calls $444
River: ($1636) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Total pot: $1636 | Rake: $3
Results:
BB had 10, 10 (full house, sixes over tens).
Hero mucked J, A (three of a kind, sixes).
Outcome: BB won $1633
I tend to assume that, particularly when out of position with a hand that isn’t likely to improve, people make their river decisions on the turn. That is, if they check-call the turn, they’re usually going to check-call the river as well. Thus, I bluff a lot more turns than I do rivers.
Still, without a far more specific read, I don’t think I should be giving up 100% of rivers unimproved. And if I’m ever going to bluff the river in a spot like this, K’s and Q’s are obviously the best cards for it, as I can represent not just a big pair but also AQ/AK that rivered top pair.
Plus, if I’m not going to bluff the river, I ought to at least make the turn bet bigger. My general philsoophy about bluffing is that your last barrel might as well be a good one.
In this spot is it worth firing on the turn at all? I mean what range is villain calling the flop, but folding the turn? Maybe I’m just bad, but if you’ve bet the flop and I called with pocket 5s or 7s I’m unlikely to fold to an 8 dito. with overcards.
Checking behind on the turn and then firing with the Q on the river (if it’s checked to you) seems like a much more believable line, to me. And obviously much more worrying in this specific hand. Of course you probably “have” to fold if villain bets the river then. Or is this line to make it easier to get 3 streets of value when you have pocket 9+?