Villain’s flop bet, representing 75% of the pot and about 15% of the effective stacks, puts me in an awkward spot with my whole range (and is therefore a good one). Actually, I can play good draws pretty easily by making a pot-committing raise, but with say one marginal pair it’s a scary board to flat call but raising requires committing a lot of stack relative to the pot against a non-favorable range. Bluff-raising is similarly awkward, but it’s a big bet to float, particularly in a spot where Villain could turn a lot of draws and fire a pot-committing semi-bluff. Even here, with a monster, I’d kind of like to raise but am afraid that shows too much strength, as I can’t really raise and leave Villain room to 3-bet with any perception of fold equity.
On the plus side, I don’t think he’d play a big draw like this, as his bet size enables me to put him in a tough spot with a raise. Thus, I’m more comfortable flatting with a set here than I otherwise would be. I’m actually kind of hoping a club does come on the turn so that Villain will semi-bluff shove. I definitely think flatting is best here, as Villain can’t very well check-fold his overpairs on most turns, plus there’s room for him to turn a second best hand if he has overcards or to turn a draw he can semi-bluff. It might seem like there are a lot of free cards that could kill my hand, such that slowplaying is bad, but based on Villain’s sizing I’m actually not too worried about the draws.
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $80.00 BB (5 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
SB ($7797)
BB ($16240)
UTG ($19134)
Hero (MP) ($8757)
Button ($7535.50)
Preflop: Hero is MP with 6
, 6
1 fold, Hero bets $240, 1 fold, SB raises to $800, 1 fold, Hero calls $560
Flop: ($1680) 6
, 5, 9 (2 players)
SB bets $1250, Hero calls $1250
Turn: ($4180) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3210, 1 fold
Total pot: $4180 | Rake: $3
Results:
Hero didn’t show 6, 6.
Outcome: Hero won $4177
Hey Andrew,
I’m just curious why you like his flop bet-size, as I think it’s really awkward in terms of turn stack sizes.
Any turn bet he makes on this board texture is going to be pot committing, so he’s effectively reduced this hand to a 1 street hand, but hasn’t picked a bet-size that actually “accomplishes” that.
I feel like if his goal is to make you make a ‘committing’ decision he should take a pot flop shove turn line, and if his goal is to play 3 streets, he should go 1/2 pot, 1/2 pot, 1/2 pot.
I mean, if he has AA here, a turn bet of ~3,000 is effectively the same thing as shoving. The only difference is that he relies on you making the connection that 3000 = his stack.
At 40/80, i’m pretty sure he’s going to give you enough credit of realizing he’s never bet/folding the turn, or not shoving river after betting turn once he makes such a big turn bet.
Obviously its more expensive to c-bet pot on this board with air for the times he has KQ and plans on bet-folding the flop, but I just feel like turn stack sizes are really awkward for the ‘goal’ we’d hope to accomplish.
Thoughts?