There was a rarity on Poker Stars on Sunday: substantial overlay in one of their major tournaments. They ended up contributing nearly $100,000 in overlay to reach the 40-seat guaranteed in the $700 PCA satellite. This hand occurred with 114 players remaining. The average stack was 20K, and I figured my 15K gave me about a 50/50 shot at a seat.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 700 Tournament, 300/600 Blinds 70 Ante (9 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
UTG (t18789)
UTG+1 (t12630)
MP1 (t35373)
Hero (MP2) (t15444)
MP3 (t15640)
CO (t6981)
Button (t16283)
SB (t3596)
BB (t42214)
Hero’s M: 10.09
Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J
, J
1 fold, UTG+1 bets t1777, 1 fold, Hero raises to t15374 (All-In), 5 folds, UTG+1 calls t10783 (All-In)
Flop: (t26650) K, Q
, 7
(2 players, 2 all-in)
Turn: (t26650) 10 (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: (t26650) 4 (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: t26650
Results:
UTG+1 had A, A (one pair, Aces).
Hero had J, J (one pair, Jacks).
Outcome: UTG+1 won t26650
The problem here is that the risk/reward is wrong for a satellite. Given our positions, Villain’s calling range is probably AK and QQ+, maybe extending down to TT if I’m lucky. That means most of the value here is coming from fold equity, and I’m probably better off pursuing fold equity with open shoves or shoves over late position raises, where the distribution of outcomes is heavily skewed towards winning without showdown. Given the size of Villain’s open raise, his range is probably weighted towards stronger stuff anyway. I don’t think this is necessarily -EV, but it’s very close, and in a satellite I can probably find better spots.
This, on the other hand, strikes me as a clear call. I’ve got a lot less to lose, insufficient chips to have fold equity on a reraise, and barely enough to get away with preflop shoving. Plus Villain’s range may well be any two cards:
PokerStars No-Limit Hold’em, 700 Tournament, 300/600 Blinds 70 Ante (9 handed) – Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO (t17609)
Button (t25540)
SB (t34493)
Hero (BB) (t6878)
UTG (t16890)
UTG+1 (t6701)
MP1 (t15919)
MP2 (t1886)
MP3 (t41034)
Hero’s M: 4.50
Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, K
7 folds, SB bets t34423 (All-In), Hero calls t6208 (All-In)
Flop: (t14246) A, 6, A (2 players, 2 all-in)
Turn: (t14246) 4 (2 players, 2 all-in)
River: (t14246) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)
Total pot: t14246
Results:
SB had 4, 7 (two pair, Aces and fours).
Hero had Q, K (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: SB won t14246
hand 2 seems pretty terrible to me if villain views you as anywhere competent. He def has any two there and will be getting called way too often for the shove to be +ev and risking 1/3 of his stack has to be too great trying to win blinds and anty. Your thoughs andrew?.
Hi Zydee, thanks for the question. I think Villain is fine to be shoving any two there. It’s just one of those satellite spots where he has a ton of fold equity even if I know he’s on any two. My calling range is probably like KT+, QJs, all pairs, and most Aces. The risk to him isn’t trivial, but it’s not deveatating, and he has huge fold equity.
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