$5/$10 NLHE 6-handed game. Villains have about $1000 each, I cover. MP opens to $35, BTN calls, I call 9h 7h in the BB.
Flop Ks 6h 2d. I check, MP bets $70 into $105 pot, BTN calls, I raise to $190, both fold. Why?
The logic here is very similar to the pre-flop squeeze play, particularly at the time that Harrington was writing his first book (ie before most people knew what a squeeze play was). The original better has a very wide range, and consequently so does the caller, especially since he didn’t 3-bet preflop. My raise into both of them represents strength in a spot where they don’t commonly see a bluff, not to mention that there is extra pressure on the original better since he still has someone left to act behind him.
I expect MP to fold unless he has a pair of K’s or better. While all of those hands are in his range, all he’s done so far is raise pre-flop (something this particular player did often) and then bet a pretty ideal flop. His range is plenty wide, and he probably folds 80% of the time or more.
The BTN’s range is wider but less likely to contain very strong hands. Since he didn’t reraise, he will rarely have AK, KK, or AA. Thus, while he can have KQ, 66, or 22, he can also have weaker pocket pairs or even floats like AQ/AJ. My rough guess is that he folds about 60% of the time.
That’s enough to make the play immediately profitable, as I’m risking just $190 to win $245. Notice here, though, that I also have several back door draws. If either player calls me, I’m shoving any heart and any 8 on the turn. Since I expect BTN’s range to be weaker, I’ll also shove 9’s, 8’s, and 7’s against him as a semi-bluff, trying to get him off of stuff like KT or a stubborn TT. Against MP, though, I’d check-fold those same cards, as he needs a stronger hand to call the flop and thus will not fold the turn as often.
great way to pick up nearly 25bb’s…thanks for sharing these new ideas to add to our arsenals.
Good write up. I’ve been employing this tactic lately – particularly with the backdoors / overcard draws – when I get a raiser who raises fairly wide (PFR > 12) + cbet >50%. I didn’t know it was called the “Flop Squeeze Play.” Question for you is this: Flop comes Ks 9h 2d, are you calling or raising there?
I think I’m raising the flop above regardless with middle pair, getting value from the 4 potential overcards that can hurt me, 44% of the deck.
I don’t know that anyone other than me calls it that, though I wouldn’t be surprised. It’s not exactly a creative name. I agree that raising there is usually best. There’s not much value for you in seeing another card.
Harrington mentions that the pre-flop squeeze play is best used sparingly, as opponents will remember the play and devise ways of playing back at you.
The interesting part will come when opponents try and play back against this strategy
Very much so, yes. Just because they are going to play back at you doesn’t mean you should do it rarely. There exists some optimal frequency such that, unless the pre-flop raiser is excessively tight, he won’t be able to play exploit you by re-bluffing. As you suggest, you do need to start squeezing for value more liberally as well, and indeed that dynamic is quite prevalent in mid-high stakes cash games.