If I don’t pick up showdown value on this river, I shove it. I doubt he calls 250BB on the river, but I’ve been wrong about such things before:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (2 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (SB) ($8365.25)
BB ($3787.25)
Preflop: Hero is SB with K, Q
Hero bets $30, BB raises to $120, Hero calls $90
Flop: ($240) 7, 4, 2 (2 players)
BB bets $160, Hero calls $160
Turn: ($560) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $300, Hero raises to $999, BB calls $699
River: ($2558) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
Total pot: $2558 | Rake: $0.50
Results:
Hero had K, Q (one pair, Queens).
BB had A, A (one pair, Aces).
Outcome: BB won $2557.50
I’m pretty sure that catching a pair on the river cost me a $2500 pot, though there’s certainly a chance that it saved me $2500.
I don’t play HU, so I have no idea how the metagame is in HU. But, you really think the villain is capable of folding aces there? The check on the river looks like a check-call line regardless of what you bet.
Secondly, is it normal to not buy in for full stack at that limit for HU?
We were playing a lot of small-medium pots, but very few large ones. It doesn’t much matter that he has Aces. I suppose I could be turning a made hand into a bluff, it’s a little different than A-high, but I’m not shoving a smaller overpair for value. I’d be surprised if he wanted to stack off for nearly 400BB with one pair, even Aces.
Many fish buy in shallow, but I usually won’t play them for less than 50BB. We’re actually quite deep in this hand, though….
Ah… I was mistaken of the limit and stack size. I see how it can be unnerving for him should you have pushed. It would be a tough call even with AA. Thanks for timely answer.
Ok. I’m not getting this line from you: Why aren’t you value betting the river here? You’re obviously not putting him on AA – and you hit your card on the river. He has $2500 remaining by the river so he hasn’t really committed. Obviously, in showdown, you made a good check behind, but why are you turning your hand into a bluff, catching and not betting? Is he a calling station and / or weak tight (i.e. only playing the nuts)?
This is what I get for using a clever title. When I say that I 6-outed myself, I mean that I think I would have won this pot with a bluff had I not rivered some showdown value. In other words, I think he folds AA, and needless to say all hands that KQ now beats, to a river shove. Basically I think on the river, though it’s close, I now beat enough of his range that checking is better than bluffing. But I also think that he folds all of the hands that I beat to a river bet- that’s why I was going to bluff if I didn’t river a pair.
Wow… so let me get this straight: You bluff a river shove if you DON’T hit the Q, but yet you check with the intent of WANTING to showdown since you do hit your Q? Something is not making sense here – and perhaps it’s because I’m not a HU player? I would think you have all the more reason to push with – what most would consider the nuts – (TPGK) in HU… You went for no value on the river; why would you think you beat enough of his range (which I would think you indeed do), yet check the river for a showdown? That’s the part that’s not making sense… instead of a bluff shove, it becomes a value shove. Instead, you went for nothing (check / check) and it likely wound up for the best (is he really folding AA to a river shove with AA?). BTW, ZERO intention of getting into HU… what a variance mind-F*CK!
I think the misunderstanding here might have more to do with the fact that we are very deep than that we are heads up. If I shove the river here, I am representing a hand that is far better than AA- a set, really. I’m not expecting a call from any one pair hand. That makes it a bad spot to shove KQ for value. Nothing worse is going to call me. It takes more than the best hand to value bet. You also have to expect that you are ahead of more than 50% of the hands that will call the bet.
I think he can call the turn with hands worse than a pair of Queens, but I don’t think he can call the river with those hands. That means I can raise the turn on a semi-bluff, planning to check it down if I happen to river a pair or to shove as a bluff if I don’t. Unless you are playing a very good opponent, a good bluffing spot is generally not going to be a good spot for a thin value bet and vice versa. If your opponent is going to call often, you should value bet but not bluff. If he’s going to fold often, which I expected here, you should bluff but not value bet.
Also you’re beating 99-JJ now, which might possibly take this line on flop and turn (I don’t play HU myself, but I imagine that folding JJ to a turn raise from an aggressive player is probably pretty exploitable). So if you bluff on a 3h or so on the river, you could get him off 99-JJ, maybe even A8 or so. But when you hit the queen, you’re only bluffing to get him off KK-AA and you don’t win anything by making him fold 99-JJ. So you beat a big part of his range that would fold to a bluff anyway, hence there’s no need to bluff.
Well put, Christoph. That’s just what I was getting at.
Well I understand everything, I get your thoughts. But anyways I’d like to give my two cents lol. If villian is a smart opponent I think he does call a river shove, only cause your turn bet raise was very small. But I would then read his call for v weak or a bluff catching hand which is what he has. I just think the bet sizing on the turn was too small.
Thanks for the comment. You really think it was that small? I chose it to set up a pot-sized shove on the river. Why do you think a smaller turn raise should make him more inclined to call river? It means he’s getting less good odds on the river, and this is definitely exactly how I’d play a straight or set, which is what I’m representing.
I’ve been thinking a bit about this hand and I’m wondering about how you’d play it if you were the player holding the aces. It sure depends a lot on reads, but let’s just say that you’re playing a good thinking player that is able to make big bluffs. I tried to come up with a way to defend against such a bluff, but I don’t really see any. I mean, you can start check/calling on the turn and river, but that way you might loose some value from 7x, 8x and overpairs. On the other hand if you bet and get raised, I don’t like any option. You can fold, but AA is still pretty strong considered your whole range you could be double barreling, so b/fing seems exploitable. However if you b/c, then I can’t see how you can not stack off on almost any river, if you think villain is capable of a big bluff. But that way you’ll loose 300BB with one pair pretty often as well. I think I’d prefer to c/c on the turn and value bet on the river if it gets checked through, but that’s probably just my alter ego “Mr. WeakTight” speaking here.
(Sorry for the long post, but I’d be really interested in what you could do here.)