Elaboration on Cryptic Advice

I posted an admittedly under-explained bit of advice last night. I was cryptic for a reason: if I’m too specific here, anyone who reads this blog could exploit the hell out of a very common spot. But here’s a pretty simple example that I don’t think is giving away too much:

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $10.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($2404)
Button ($2311.25)
SB ($1025)
Hero (BB) ($2000)
UTG ($2976.45)
MP ($3368.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, 8
2 folds, CO bets $30, Button calls $30, 1 fold, Hero raises to $133, CO calls $103, Button calls $103

Flop: ($404) 10, 2, 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $277, CO calls $277, 1 fold

Turn: ($958) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $400, Hero raises to $1590 (All-In), CO calls $1190

River: ($4138) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $4138 | Rake: $3

Results:
Hero had 7, 8 (one pair, twos).
CO had K, K (two pair, Kings and twos).
Outcome: CO won $4135

I’m only using this as an example of a transparent turn bet. I’m definitely not holding this up as an example of a well-played hand on my part. Notice how Villain, holding the effective nuts, bets an uncommonly small amount, less than half the pot, in order to insure that I have room to check-raise him. Suppose Villain has the big draw instead- do you think he’d bet the same amount that he did with KK?