This isn’t going to work against a lot of opponents, but against very tough opponents, it’s essential:
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold’em, $20.00 BB (6 handed) – Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Hero (MP) ($4429.50)
CO ($7120)
Button ($2587)
SB ($4449.30)
BB ($4169)
UTG ($712.40)
Preflop: Hero is MP with 4
, 4
UTG calls $20, Hero bets $90, 1 fold, Button calls $90, 2 folds, UTG calls $70
Flop: ($300) 3, 4
, 6 (3 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $187, Button calls $187, 1 fold
Turn: ($674) J (2 players)
Hero bets $444, Button calls $444
River: ($1562) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $1225, Hero calls $1225
Total pot: $4012 | Rake: $3
Results:
Button had 6, 7 (one pair, sixes).
Hero had 4, 4 (three of a kind, fours).
Outcome: Hero won $4009
This guy isn’t calling the turn with a bare draw, so I’m not too concerned about him having the flush. He could have a big draw, something like Ah5h, that he chose to “slowplay”, or maybe a flush with the Jh, but I don’t think he has a flush too often. His most likely hand is something marginal with showdown value, either a bare pair that was bluff catching or a pair plus draw.
A less sophisticated opponent is just going to check back the river very often and be happy to show down his pair. A player of this guy’s caliber, though, will realize that it may be better to turn a weak pair into a bluff. Especially when I don’t bet at a good bluff card on the river, I no longer have a lot of the bluffy part of my range that he was beating on the turn. He may get real heroic on the river, but overall I think he turns a pair into a bluff (or very occasionally value bets worse) more often than he calls with worse. Though bet-calling here might be even sexier, come to think of it….
So is this a bad bluff since according to you it’s readily apparent that his range does not consist of many flushes? I suppose that assumes he understands you know he is capable of turning a made hand into a bluff.
When are you going on your road trip? I’ve been waiting for blog updates.
Hey, good to hear from you! It depends a ton on what he thinks of me, what he thinks I think of him, etc. He also needs to turn a pair into a bluff sometimes here or I will never pay him off when he has a legit hand. Like, he pretty much never has zero showdown value on the river, so unless he turns weak pairs into bluffs, he’s never bluffing.
That said, I’ve picked off some big bluffs from him before, and I actually don’t think the history was right for him to attempt this.